Leo Bastos

When Thomas Bayes meets John Snow. Presented in Vitória, capital of Espírito Santo state, at the 69th RBRAS meeting and 21st SEAGRO

The #JSM2025 is about to start, the JSM is by far the biggest stats conference I've attended. I went to Miami Beach and Boston, it was a great experience. But nowadays I prefer relatively smaller conferences and outside the US (my visa expired and I am not keen to pass through the application again)

I would suggest this one too.

I would suggest Andrew Gelman's books

sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/books/

In particular, Bayesian Data Analysis and Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models.

Another curiosity, in 2001 as an undergrad stats student I attended the same (joint) conference, the 46th RBRAS and the 9th SEAGRO, in Piracicaba (SP). There I gave my very first oral presentation talking about the partition product model applied on a variance changing points problem.

The conference is the 69th Annual Meeting of the Brazilian Region of the International Society of Biometrics (RBras) and the 21st Symposium on Statistics Applied to Agricultural Experimentation (SEAGRO).

69rbras21seagro.com.br

a close up of a man making a funny face while smiling . ALT: a close up of a man making a funny face while smiling .

In two weeks, I will be a keynote speaker in a national stats conference. I am quite happy about that but also very nervous.

I will talk about Bayesian learning on infectious disease surveillance, so it is time to start preparing my talk (and finish it 10 minutes before the actual conference... 😅)

Brazilian tanager - Wikipedia

This one is quite similar a species that I love and sometimes I can spot here in Rio.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazili...

Rubio moves to strip US visas from eight Brazilian judges in Bolsonaro battle Move by Marco Rubio is latest attempt by Trump administration to help former president avoid justice over alleged coup

Can you imagine if last year the Brazilian visa were revoked from the NY judge and the jury members (and their families) after Trump being convicted of crimes? Super weird, isn't it? Well, it seems the opposite is OK for some...

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Trump will soon add new tariffs for all countries to guarantee global security like Italian mafia or Brazilian militia does on their territories (you can name your "favourite" group/organisation/gang/whatever that charges others to guarantee their security)

I am quite surprised and impressed by Chelsea's result at the final against PSG.

But the match I am interested in today is from another blue jersey team at the Brasileirão 🦊😅😬

Cruzeiro X Grêmio

Many thanks @leosbastos.bsky.social and everyone at Fiocruz for the warm welcome! I really enjoyed hearing about all the exciting work happening here and visiting the beautiful Rio de Janeiro! 💚💛💙

#rstats #GISchat #diseasesurveillance

I know there is plenty of time, and once one gets the visa it opens doors to other events etc... But it doesn't change the fact that to get a visa here is quite annoying, near humiliating and I am not keen to do it again (my old visa has expired)

It is a bit frustrating knowing that the 2028 ISBA World meeting will be in the US (Milwaukee). Nothing against the venue itself, but to have to pass through the annoying Visa process a Brazilian has to do.

It may be convenient for most Bayesians, but it is not for me.

We had a very special visitor today, @paulamoraga.bsky.social gave us a great lecturer on Spatial data science in R.

Thanks Paula!

The manuscript "Duration of COVID-19 symptoms in children: a longitudinal study in a Rio de Janeiro favela, Brazil" was recently accepted in the BMJ Open.

I am one of the authors and, once published, it will be my 100th peer reviewed paper.

A meaningless academic milestone, a cool number though.

Ri com respeito aqui, pq ha poucos anos atrás meu cruzeiro tomaria de 10 deles... Hahaha

My team (Cruzeiro 🦊) is not there in the World Cup, but it is nice to see the Brazilian clubs playing well at there. It is good for me since we are leading* the Brazilian league (Brasileirão).

*Second place, same number of points as Flamengo, but they scored more goals.

a young boy is making a funny face while wearing a red and blue shirt . ALT: a young boy is making a funny face while wearing a red and blue shirt .

Europeans: we don't really care about the FIFA world club...

Dude, my team is not even there and I am watching the games even supporting some clubs (the weaker ones which maybe are no longer the Brazilian ones...)

As well as interesting data, nice piece of data viz to have outlier line stretch beyond y axis…

‘Avenue of Death’: the Rio motorway where stray bullets, botched raids and resilience collide Brazil Avenue was meant to symbolise progress – today it tells the story of a city at war with itself

The Fiocruz main campus is at Av. Brasil. I feel sad to see it called "avenue of Death" but it is true... 😥

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...

Save the dates and come to Rio to talk about Data Science in Public Heath, epidemiological surveillance and the impacts of the climate change.

fiocruz.tghn.org/news/e-surve...

The cell at Fiocruz

Today (25/5) is Fiocruz 125th year anniversary, instead of the iconic castle picture (which turns out I have no one in my phone) I post a picture of the cell from the Life's museum which is part of the Fiocruz campus in Manguinhos and I place I often take my kids to play around there.

GitHub - lsbastos/measles_US Contribute to lsbastos/measles_US development by creating an account on GitHub.

I still need to organize everything, but teaching is taking most of my time this term. But there are some plots on the output folder, and the whole code is there somewhere...

github.com/lsbastos/mea...

Our (@leosbastos.bsky.social‬ and I) comment about dengue risk is highlighted in the cover and the cover itself!!!

Link to our comment: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

bart simpson from the simpsons says this is the worst day of my life ALT: bart simpson from the simpsons says this is the worst day of my life

Isso aí, como não achamos nenhum surto na nova Zelândia e nem no sul da Austrália, então mandamos no título que era a descrição do surto mais austral do planeta. (Mas faltou um "so far" igual o Homer fez aqui)

Já ouvi e adorei. Uma correção, Bahia Blanca não fica tão ao sul assim. Continua sendo o surto mais austral já documentado, mas está "só" 600 km ao sul de Buenos Aires, não chega a estar na região da Patagônia. O artigo tá em vias de sair. :-)

Ps: ouvi e gostei. Só uma pequena correção Bahia Blanca fica 600 km ao sul de Buenos Aires, mas ainda não tá na Patagônia. Tá ao sul do continente africano, mas não ao sul de NZ. E o artigo descrevendo esse surto deve sair logo.

Olha aí, vou ouvir. Ouço o tortinha de climao sempre pensando que seria legal ouvir alguém falando de dengue. Melhor ainda sendo vc. :-)

It is kind of interesting that the new Pope's name in English is Leo.

In Portuguese, the Pope's name is "Papa Leão" (which I would firstly translate to Pope Lion, but that sounds very odd and made me Google it).