David Wessel

BLS: Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 330,000, or 11.0%.

YouTube video by Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s Birthday Message for Chairman Greenspan, March 6, 2026

Here at the Fed, we are rationally exuberant to celebrate your 100th birthday with you. Happy birthday, Alan Greenspan!
youtu.be/lp1sJDa5MsI

CBO says SCOTUS ruling on IEEPA tariffs (not counting 122 tariffs) results in projected deficits $2.0 trillion larger over FY 2026–2036 period than in baseline projections last month -- $1.6 trillion in larger primary deficits and $0.4 trillion in debt-service costs. www.cbo.gov/publication/...

Trump formally nominates Kevin Warsh "of Florida"-- for the seat on the Board of Governors in which Miran currently sits .

Twenty-Four States Led by Oregon File Lawsuit Challenging Trump's Section 122 Tariffs NA Today, 24 states led by the state of Oregon filed the first lawsuit challenging Donald Trump's massive new Section…

Today, 24 states, led by Oregon, filed the first lawsuit challenging Trump's Section 122 tariffs. The case is before the US Court of International Trade, which has exclusive jurisdiction over cases challenging tariffs reason.com/volokh/2026/...

YARDENI, on Blue Owl's Technology Finance fund:

".. If the company has to sell its loans in the open market, the Street will find out whether the net asset values of its private loans, which don’t trade, are accurate. ..

".. you never know what something is worth until you try to sell it."

$OWL

Trump Accounts - AAF If you have a pulse, you likely recall the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA, now being rebranded as the Working Families Tax Cut) last summer. And if you continue to respire, you are d...

About those new Trump accounts. They're very complicated. From American Action Forum (Doug Holtz-Eakin's shop)
www.americanactionforum.org/daily-dish/t...

ATTN all tax geeks. ICYMI. Here's a video of the panel on the 100th anniversary of the Joint Committee on Taxation. (I was among the panelists)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P9-...

Sources:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/u...
news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-...

Confidential database reveals which items NPS thinks may ‘disparage’ America An internal government database reviewed by The Washington Post demonstrates the vast scope of the Trump administration’s ongoing effort to revise or remove information on African American history, cl...

Orwell lives. wapo.st/3OKoDTr

Neither Beth Hammack and Neel Kashkari, both voters on FOMC this year, favor near-term cut in interest rates.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/b...
and
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

Reality Sets In on Trump’s New War Surprise! War in the middle of the world’s most important oil fields has consequences

URL (paywall) paulkrugman.substack.com/p/reality-se...

Paul Krugman: a $15/barrel rise in oil will raise overall U.S. consumer prices by about 0.3%; $50/barrel rise (to $120) from pre-bombing level would raise consumer prices by about 1%. That’s roughly what Trump’s tariffs have done -- and they didn't tank the economy, but...

Powell Won, but the Fed Might Still Lose Current chair wields deep bipartisan support and personal independence, but Trump has a closer relationship to his successor and three years to tighten his grip.

WSJ's @nicktimiraos.bsky.social call Powell "the last bipartisan figure" in DC - appointed by Obama, promoted by Trump, reappointed by Biden. Quotes Jon Faust: “I’m very pessimistic about whether the U.S. can avoid total partisan control of monetary policy"
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Spike in oil and natural gas prices is a windfall…for Russia

Congestion Pricing Wins in Court After Lengthy Battle With Trump

A federal judge ruled that the federal government’s attempt to end New York’s congestion pricing toll was illegal, handing a major victory to the state in its defense of its traffic reduction plan, which the Trump administration had tried for more than a year to kill
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/n...

In his remarks, John Williams cited the research from NY Fed economists that led Kevin Hassett to call for the researchers to be "disciplined."

Williams told reporters afterward that the research was "incredibly well done" and "incredibly important."

Next steps for GENIUS payment stablecoins | Brookings Recommendations on what regulators might do to make stablecoins trusted payments and ensure financial stability

Nellie Liang & Bill Dudley: Next steps for GENIUS stablecoins. What regulators need to do to make them trusted payments and ensure financial stability. www.brookings.edu/articles/nex... via @brookings.edu Hutchins Center

Axel Springer acquires Bisnow to expand American media portfolio - Washington Business Journal Bisnow has joined a growing media empire.

Axel Springer, German media firm that owns Politico and Business Insider and Morning Brew, has acquired commercial real estate media and events business Bisnow. Terms weren't announced. Sold by Wicks Group which acquired Bisnow for reported $50 million in 2016. www.bizjournals.com/washington/n...

War in Iran: What happens next? www.brookings.edu/events/us-ir.... 2 PM EST @brookings.edu (On-line only)

Opinion | JD Vance Has His Reasons

Tom Edsall traces J D Vance's political conversion to an anti-liberal, authoritarian philosophy. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/o...

More Than F-35: Why Does the F-15EX Cost $97,000,000 Per Fighter? Summary and Key Points: The Boeing F-15EX was initially seen as a cost-effective alternative to more advanced fighters like the F-35. -However, its price has steadily increased, surpassing even the F-...

Those three F-15s that the Kuwaitis shot down in friendly fire attack cost $97 million *each*
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/mo...

Opinion | U.S. LNG Exports to the World’s Rescue Ten years ago, Cheniere Energy began an export boom that is saving the world economy today.

The U.S. now exports about as much gas to Europe as Russia did before the war. From @wsj.com editorial page
www.wsj.com/opinion/amer...

But

Chart o morning: Natural gas prices soar in Europe and Asia. Could be bigger shock than supply lost from Russia, says @financialtimes.com

Iran executes Khamenei’s plan to spread regional war Strikes on energy facilities and targets across Middle East form strategy devised to sow chaos in retaliation for US and Israeli attack

Iran is believed to have fired almost as many, if not more, drones and missiles at the UAE, the regional dominant trade and tourism hub, than at Israel. @financialtimes.com
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Trump just held a press conference about war with Iran, and spent much of it talking about drapes and his ballroom. I guess those are the drapes of wrath???

The appeals court has now rejected the DOJ request, which in practice means that the court took a procedural step in the direction of starting the long fight over tariff refunds. Today's order: www.courtlistener.com/docket/70394...

War in Iran: What happens next? March 3. 2 PM EST. On-line only @brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/events/us-ir...