David Wessel

Trump’s former jobs data chief decries firing of successor (Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump’s firing of the chief labor statistician was criticized by her predecessor, who called it an unfounded move that will undermine confidence in a key data set on th...

finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-f...

This should be amplified and shared often. #econsky

!! “The president wants his own people there, so that when we see the numbers, they’re more transparent and more reliable,” Hassett told NBC’s “Meet the Press.” On “Fox News Sunday,” Mr. Hassett claimed there were “partisan patterns” in the jobless data, and said that “data can’t be propaganda.”

Larry Summers: "This is way beyond anything Nixon ever did ... this is the stuff of democracies giving way to authoritarianism. Firing statisticians goes with threatening the heads of newspapers, launching assaults on universities, launching assaults on law firms. This is really scary stuff."

Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure | Brookings The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure shows how much fiscal policy adds to or subtracts from overall economic growth.

Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure shows local, state, federal fiscal policy shaved 0.2 pct pts off Q2 US GDP growth. We expect the FIM to remain negative throughout most of our forecast period (ends Q2 2007) in part due to tariffs. www.brookings.edu/articles/hut... via @brookings.edu

Opinion | Trump Claims the Jobs Report Was Rigged. Was It? He does himself and his party no favors by waving away economic reality—as Biden did with inflation.

Allysia Finley of @wsj.com editorial page weighs in on Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner: Shooting the messenger won’t help him or the economy....Trump does himself and his party no favors by waving away economic reality.
www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...

Craig Caplan (CSPAN): Senate agreed by unanimous consent at the request of Majority Leader Thune to hold pro forma sessions every 3 days following Saturday's session and not return for votes until Sept. 2nd. This agreement will block Trump from making recess appointments.

Fired BLS commissioner comment.

Politicians Choosing Their Voters A Trump-led gerrymandering drive threatens to further erode the political center

Jerry Seib: Drive to ramp up gerrymandering, creating more artificially designed congressional districts in which politicians choose their own voters rather than the other way around, continues unsettling trend: Voters just don’t matter as much as they used to. open.substack.com/pub/jerrysei...

Larry Summers re BLS (on Twitter). "This is surely not the most serious threat to our democracy that Trump poses, but it is the one closest to what we economists do. I don’t see how serious members of the economics profession can stay in his administration." x.com/LHSummers/st...

AI Is Coming for the Consultants. Inside McKinsey, ‘This Is Existential.’ If AI can analyze information, crunch data and deliver a slick PowerPoint deck within seconds, how does the biggest name in consulting stay relevant?

Schadenfreude: McKinsey is deploying AI bots that assist consultants in building PPT decks, taking notes, summing up interviews & documents. Most-used bot helps employees write in a classic “McKinsey tone of voice”—which the firm describes as sharp, concise & clear www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mcki...

USAFacts.org, you may need to step up and replace some of the Federal statistics we all rely on. Loss of an independent BLS is a catastrophe.

Leaders of American Economic Association call on elected officials "to respect and preserve" the independence of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after Trump fires the BLS commissioner.

The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)

Why do the jobs numbers get revised?

our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months

1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly

Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N

www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...

Republicans slam Trump’s firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics chief President claimed that recently released figures showing jobs slowdown were ‘rigged’ to make him look bad

Republican senators Lummis, Tillis, Paul & Murkowski criticize Trump's firing of BLS commissioner:. Murkowski: People don't trust the jobs numbers, but "when you fire people, then it makes people trust them even less.” www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure | Brookings The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure shows how much fiscal policy adds to or subtracts from overall economic growth.

Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure shows local, state, federal fiscal policy shaved 0.2 pct pts off Q2 US GDP growth. We expect the FIM to remain negative throughout most of our forecast period (ends Q2 2007) in part due to tariffs. www.brookings.edu/articles/hut... via @brookings.edu

!! Kevin Hassett (PhD, University of Pennsylvania), potential Fed chair, sought to frame the firing of the BLS commissioner as an attempt to restore “trust” at the statistics agency. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/b...

Measuring the impact of climate change on state and local governments’ fiscal health | Brookings Summaries of papers presented at the 2025 Municipal Finance Conference, detailing the consequences of wildfires, floods, and the transition away from coal.

Gleanings from our Municipal Finance Conference: Measuring the impact of climate change on state and local governments’ fiscal health www.brookings.edu/articles/mea... Hutchins Center @brookings.edu

The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau. For a full statement opposing this move, read:

Trump’s first BLS Commissioner, Bill Beach, calls today’s firing groundless and dangerous.
www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased.

#econsky

Adriana D. Kugler submits resignation as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, effective August 8, 2025 The Federal Reserve Board announced on Friday that Adriana D. Kugler will step down from her position as governor of the Federal Reserve Board, effective Augus

Adriana D. Kugler (Biden appointee) will leave the Federal Reserve Board effective August 8, 2025, giving Trump a slot to fill -- perhaps with whomever he wants to be the next Fed chair www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...

Paging Kevin Hassett and Scott Bessent....

here's the Trump post on the BLS Commissioner (who was confirmed by the Senate 86-8 in January 2024)

!! Trump demands BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer (20 year veteran govt employee) be fired after BLS data show deteriorating job market.

The #OpportunityZone fund stracked by Novogradac reported an overall $42.05 billion in equity as of June 30, $1.14 billion of which was reported in Q2. The quarter ended four days before Trump signed OBBBA into law, making OZs permanent. www.novoco.com/notes-from-n...

Goldman (cont) payroll employment in the industries most exposed to immigration policy changes declined by 4k on a three-month average basis through June (vs. +2k in May and +27k on average in 2024). (2 of 2)

Goldman: Payroll employment in the industries most exposed to negative effects from higher tariffs declined by 1k on a three-month average basis through June, while employment in the industries most exposed to positive effects from higher tariffs decreased by 2k. (1 of 2)

Waller looking smart this AM: My final reason to favor a cut now is that while the labor market looks fine on the surface, once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed, and other data suggest that the downside risks to the labor market have increased

Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M07 Results

only +73,000 payroll jobs in July AND larger than usual revisions: payrolls in May revised to +19k from 144k, in June to 14k from 147k. May and June combined were 258,000 lower than previously reported. Payrolls grew only 35k/month for past 3 months. www.bls.gov/news.release...

Statement by Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman On Wednesday, July 30, 2025, I dissented from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at it

Fed's Bowman: Upside risks to price stability have diminished as I gain even greater confidence that tariffs will not present a persistent shock to inflation www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Statement by Governor Christopher J. Waller At the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, I dissented because I concluded that cutting the policy rate by 25 basis points was the approp

Fed's Waller: "the wait and see approach is overly cautious, and, in my opinion, does not properly balance the risks to the outlook and could lead to policy falling behind the curve." www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...