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Michael Carpenter

@mikercarpenter.bsky.social

Senior Fellow at IISS. Former Ambassador to the OSCE, NSC Senior Director for Europe, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense. Personal views only.

149 Followers  |  58 Following  |  21 Posts  |  Joined: 27.02.2025  |  2.0084

Latest posts by mikercarpenter.bsky.social on Bluesky

โ˜ ๏ธ The Economist: Russia lost 1% of its pre-war male population in Ukraine.

In total, Russian losses in dead and wounded amounted to between 1 million and 1.35 million soldiers.

Over the past three years, Russia has been able to occupy an additional 1.45% of Ukrainian territory.

06.12.2025 13:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 967    ๐Ÿ” 282    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 38    ๐Ÿ“Œ 17
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Militรฆruniformer og totalt lukkethed: ร˜jenvidne slรฅr alarm om russiske olieskibe Han har sejlet i de danske farvande i over 40 รฅr, men har aldrig set noget lignende det, der sker nu. Derfor slรฅr han alarm i hรฅbet om, at myndighederne vil rea

Danish pilots keep reporting sightings of little green men aboard civilian vessels coming from Russia. Unfortunately the authorities donโ€™t want to discuss these sightings. But a veteran pilot with decades of experience is willing to talk.

Full story here:

danwatch.dk/militaerunif...

16.11.2025 13:09 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 66    ๐Ÿ” 33    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 5
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Nederlandse diensten delen minder informatie met de VS: โ€˜Soms vertellen we dingen niet meerโ€™ Het aantal dreigingen dat op Nederland afkomt is groot, zien de hoofden van de AIVD en de MIVD elke dag: niet alleen Russische agressie, maar ook de opmars van China als digitale macht en binnenlands ...

Dutch intelligence suspends sharing arrangements with the US after concluding that high level intel was routinely being shared by the White House with their friends in the Kremlin. www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/n...

19.10.2025 01:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8291    ๐Ÿ” 4614    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 388    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1116
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Trump posts AI video showing him literally dumping shit on America

19.10.2025 02:36 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 11767    ๐Ÿ” 4149    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4492    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3876
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๐Ÿฅด๐ŸคกTrump envoy Witkoff pressed the Ukrainian delegation on handing over Donetsk region to Russia during a meeting on Friday, - WP.

He used the Kremlin's key argument that the region is predominantly Russian-speaking.

19.10.2025 06:02 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 287    ๐Ÿ” 104    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 142    ๐Ÿ“Œ 81
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Russiaโ€™s war on Ukraine shakes nuclear securityโ€™s future | On the Record In an On The Record special from the Warsaw Security Forum, Adam Jasser speaks with Michael Carpenter, former Senior Director for Europe at the U.S. National Security Council. Trump has come to the conclusion that he wonโ€™t be able to have a deal with Putin. Ukraine is not ready to capitulate โ€“ and it shouldnโ€™t, says Carpenter, warning that Russian propaganda tries to convince the world otherwise. He argues that Kyiv needs cutting-edge Western capabilities โ€“ something the Trump administration has not provided at scale. Carpenter warns that Russiaโ€™s aggression has sown the seeds of the NPTโ€™s unraveling. The lesson drawn by many states is stark: give up your nuclear deterrent, and you are fair game. This dangerous shift risks fueling a new wave of nuclear proliferation. Carpenter also highlights the dangers of Washingtonโ€™s isolationist turn: funding cuts for Ukraine and Taiwan send troubling signals, while China is quick to exploit perceived weakness. He calls for tougher sanctions enforcement, pointing to Russiaโ€™s โ€œshadow fleet,โ€ and urges Europe to assume greater responsibility for defense and deterrence. ๐Ÿ”ด Watch our 24/7 livestream - https://youtube.com/live/UFrlr77yff8 Bringing you all the latest daily news and updates, TVP World is Poland's first English-language channel where you can find world news as seen from the Polish perspective and the latest news from the CEE region. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram. https://tvpworld.com/ https://www.facebook.com/tvpworldcom https://twitter.com/TVPWorld_com https://www.instagram.com/tvp_world/ https://www.threads.net/@tvp_world https://bsky.app/profile/tvpworld.bsky.social https://www.tiktok.com/@tvpworld.com https://t.me/tvp_world #WarsawSecurityForum #MichaelCarpenter #Trump #Putin #Ukraine

Speaking to TVP World about the current direction of US foreign policy.

02.10.2025 15:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Russian Navy tug ALEKSANDR FROLOV directed jamming towards a Danish helicopter and a patrol ship a few days ago.

This was reported by NATO command Brunssum on X. The post was quickly deleted and NATO is now tight lipped.

A FROLOV stayed around Fehmarn Belt for 9 days.

29.08.2025 19:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 230    ๐Ÿ” 75    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 7    ๐Ÿ“Œ 5
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The Fantasy of a European Reassurance Force for Ukraine A European "reassurance force" for Ukraine risks being another notional "guarantee" offering little more than a false sense of security.

In efforts to end the #RussiaUkraineWar, talk is accelerating about a European โ€œreassurance forceโ€ for Ukraine.

Amb. @mikercarpenter.bsky.social on โ€œits highly questionable viabilityโ€:

www.justsecurity.org/119673/ukrai...

28.08.2025 12:51 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 28    ๐Ÿ” 7    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿšจ BREAKING: Russia has struck the EU delegation building in Kyiv.

Read the developing story: ow.ly/N2RW50WNllP

28.08.2025 07:07 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 385    ๐Ÿ” 292    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 36    ๐Ÿ“Œ 49
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๐Ÿšจ New episode: Who is playing who? Trump, Putin and the Alaska 'Peace Summit'

Will the leaders take a step towards a landmark peace deal, or will this go down as a diplomatic disaster?

Listen now on Global Player or wherever you get your pods ๐ŸŽง

@markurban.bsky.social @mpolymer1.bsky.social

14.08.2025 16:53 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 40    ๐Ÿ” 12    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 11    ๐Ÿ“Œ 5

โ€œEarned on the battlefieldโ€? Seriously?

10.08.2025 13:57 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Horrific
www.euronews.com/2025/08/08/s...

08.08.2025 13:38 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Historians Politely Remind Nation To Check What's Happened In Past Before Making Any Big Decisions

Historians Politely Remind Nation To Check What's Happened In Past Before Making Any Big Decisions

Historians Politely Remind Nation To Check What's Happened In Past Before Making Any Big Decisions theonion.com/histori...

23.07.2025 14:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3889    ๐Ÿ” 631    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 42    ๐Ÿ“Œ 32
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Ukraine Can Still Win Western half measures have prolonged the war, but decisive action now could end it.

โ€œInstead of prolonging the war by giving Ukraine too much military assistance, Kyivโ€™s foreign allies have prolonged it by giving too little, and often with significant delays,โ€ argues @mikercarpenter.bsky.social.

15.07.2025 18:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 38    ๐Ÿ” 8    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Russian Drone Documents Draw Line From China to Ukraineโ€™s Skies Investigation shows how Chinese suppliers have been key for Russiaโ€™s war against Ukraine

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

09.07.2025 09:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Ukraine Can Still Win Western half measures have prolonged the war, but decisive action now could end it.

Ukraine cannot win without โ€œa fundamental shift in Western strategy, one that combines a large boost in military assistance with more robust economic measures to constrain Russiaโ€™s war economy,โ€ argues @mikercarpenter.bsky.social.

01.07.2025 19:41 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 44    ๐Ÿ” 8    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Ukraine Can Still Win Western half measures have prolonged the war, but decisive action now could end it.

My argument: how Ukraine can still win.
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...

02.07.2025 01:59 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Amazing. NYT has more confirmation that Trump's decision to bomb Iran was motivated in large part by the way the Israeli strikes were "playing" on Fox News, which drove him to want credit for it

23.06.2025 10:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8249    ๐Ÿ” 3054    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 416    ๐Ÿ“Œ 609
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I just gave to Bridget Brink! Show your support with a contribution.

Thank you so much for your support! Hereโ€™s a link to chip in: secure.actblue.com/donate/bb-bs...

18.06.2025 16:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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2-week timeline: The CBC's Andrew Nichols talks with Michael Carpenter of the Atlantic Council The White House says President Trump will make a decision on U.S. involvement in Iran by early July. Get the latest on CBCNews.ca, the CBC News App, and CBC News Network for breaking news and analysis...

I was on @cbcnews-rss.bsky.social today to discuss the Trump administrationโ€™s next steps on Iran. Whatever decision he takes, he will alienate a part of his base.

20.06.2025 01:05 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Ambassador Bridget Brink is an amazing and selfless public servant who has always stood for whatโ€™s right. Iโ€™ve had the privilege to work with her since 2007, when we first met. She is a true patriot and cares about what matters: improving the economy, fighting corruption, US national security.

18.06.2025 16:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Well thatโ€™s a way to start the meeting. Letโ€™s talk about my bud Vlad and blame Obama for Russia not being part of this group anymore. ๐Ÿคฆ๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

Good Lord. God Bless PM Mark Carney for his position standing there listening to this ๐Ÿ’ฉ and not elbowing him in the throat. ๐Ÿคฆ๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

16.06.2025 16:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1087    ๐Ÿ” 239    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 206    ๐Ÿ“Œ 49

๐Ÿงต
My small country, Estonia, population 1.3 million sent 2003-2014 over 2500 soldiers. 9 were killed in the line of duty. 109 wounded, half of them so seriously they could no longer lead a normal life.

In Iraq 2003-2009 we had more than 440 soldiers. 2 were killed. 18 seriously wounded.

1/n

11.06.2025 18:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3091    ๐Ÿ” 748    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 131    ๐Ÿ“Œ 50
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Weekend Update #135: Scratch That: The Ukrainians Just Pulled Off The Most Successful Operation Of The War The New York Times Shows How Trump/Putin Control The Narrative; Trump Delays Again

Hi All, I released my weekend update a few hours ago, and the Ukrainians turned around and launched what is arguably the most successful operation of the war--so I updated it with all the information I could get. Russian strategic airpower received a mighty blow. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

01.06.2025 16:32 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 535    ๐Ÿ” 148    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 22    ๐Ÿ“Œ 9

Russia's demands were "detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed," a source in the Ukrainian delegation told Reuters.

16.05.2025 14:58 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This isnโ€™t getting nearly enough attention.

Estonian navy is stopped at intercepting a shadow fleet vessel because a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 violated Estonian air space. This reduces even the implausible deniability to 0, which Russia has been relying on with the shadow fleet.

15.05.2025 14:08 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1157    ๐Ÿ” 416    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 49    ๐Ÿ“Œ 14
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Russia burned down Warsawโ€™s biggest mall, Tusk says โ€œWe will get you all!โ€ Polish prime minister tells perpetrators still at large.

www.politico.eu/article/russ...

12.05.2025 23:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Kirill Dmitriev is the Kremlinโ€™s money man.

07.04.2025 22:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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In first, Hegseth to skip multinational meeting on Ukraine support The April 11 meeting will mark the first time the coalition will gather without Americaโ€™s secretary of defense participating.

Not surprising but still unfortunate. www.defensenews.com/pentagon/202...

05.04.2025 17:29 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Ukraine: The Latest Daily News Podcast ยท Updated Daily ยท The worldโ€™s most listened to, and award-winning, podcast covering the war in Ukraine. Every weekday, the Telegraph's top journalists analyse the conflict from all ...

Check out my latest thoughts on Ukraine, China, tariffs, and transatlantic relations on the โ€œUkraine: The Latestโ€ podcast.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/u...

02.04.2025 16:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

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