As usual Arjun Murti brought the heat on this week’s episode of SuperSpiked. I appreciate his passion and his general desire to stick to the data…
I think he deviates from that a little bit here but let’s go through it.
Demand destruction and diversification using LNG, solar/batteries/wind, coal.
More importantly, replacing coal with gas is very expensive. It is a 50 year investment. Most countries were skeptical before because of the low cost of solar/batteries. Now they are revisiting the entire strategy. Investors don’t think LNG will win over 50 years and are worried.
On LNG it violates the thesis of the New Joule Order. Countries want Energy Sovereignty and Localization. So replacing oil with LNG creates the same macro problems on the use of US$
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
On Nuclear, the only way it works is through heavy government involvement/subsidies. You see that in China, Europe, and in the USA. While I love the “vibes” of nuclear and did so much to help the sector in my four years of service, I don’t see how his nuclear comments are supported by “data”.
On Coal, countries will always use what is available domestically. As Arjun Murti points out, pollution that impacts human health (acid rain) has to be dealt with. We subsidize lots of coal in the USA today. How much more is he recommending we subsidize to stay open.
At current oil prices, around 10% of oil demand can easily be shifted to better technologies that consumers want.
•EV adoption
•Fuel economy standards
•Electrified transport and heating
•Industrial decarbonization
These changes gradually reduce oil demand structurally
Capital is moving away from extraction to prioritize the deployment of electrotech.
Institutional investors are moving away from fully merchant markets towards predictable infrastructure returns.
Oil price shocks create economic instability.
Electrification gives a country the tools to shift energy costs to more stable domestic electricity markets.
Why keep an economy dependent on a commodity with geopolitical supply shocks?
Scaling LNG, Coal, Solar, or Nuclear requires policy.
The critical deciders are infrastructure investors, not venture capitalists or private equity investors (oil and gas investors)
Last year they allocated $2.2T for clean, $1.1T for fossil infra. They are scaling proven tech.
Frustration with their allocation is not data driven.
People revisit policies when oil prices spike, but…
Energy transitions happen because something cheaper and better scales, not because oil becomes unaffordable.
Financing and entrepreneurship is now coming for oil demand.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-ch...
On demand destruction, the argument is basically that the natural dynamics of the market requires very high oil prices. This is because there is an assumption that there is a lot of inertia and therefore a very high discount rate. So oil has to go above $200/bbl to encourage this
As usual Arjun Murti brought the heat on this week’s episode of SuperSpiked. I appreciate his passion and his general desire to stick to the data…
I think he deviates from that a little bit here but let’s go through it.
Demand destruction and diversification using LNG, solar/batteries/wind, coal.
Nope I wrote it without ChatGPT. Really amazing opportunity for near term energy efficiency.
India has a once-in-a-century opportunity to become a global energy superpower.
Not because of oil or gas.
Because of solar, wind, storage, and hydrogen.
A $1T India New Energy Transition Fund could turn energy imports into energy exports. 🧵
Bottom line:
India has the talent to become an energy superpower.
It needs to shift its cost of capital from 9-11% to 3-6%.
With the right financing structure, India could manufacture energy at scale and export it to the world.
The result?
India could generate $250B per year in energy revenues, putting it in the same league as traditional energy exporters like Saudi Arabia.
But instead of oil and gas imports, they would export products that require very low cost sun, wind, and batteries.
Nope but happy to look them up next time I am up there
Bottom line:
India has the talent to become an energy superpower.
It needs to shift its cost of capital from 9-11% to 3-6%.
With the right financing structure, India could manufacture energy at scale and export it to the world.
The geopolitics are significant.
Today many countries hold massive reserves in US Treasuries.
Using those treasuries as collateral to get very low cost financing for energy infrastructure could simultaneously:
• accelerate decarbonization
• strengthen global supply chains
• reach energy abundance
Hydrogen is a major opportunity. It requires very cheap solar power.
Global hydrogen demand is already above 100 million tonnes a year, worth roughly $500B annually.
India already produces ~8% of global hydrogen and could capture far more with the best technology in the world and cheaper financing
This means:
European turbines
Japanese hydrogen tech
Korean manufacturing
Indian deployment scale
A clean energy supply chain that benefits every participant.
Why would Europe, Japan, and Korea participate?
Three reasons:
• Higher returns than sovereign debt
• They have technology to deploy
• Expanded relationship with India
The fund could require ~50% of capital to purchase equipment and technology from partner nations.
The result?
India could generate $250B per year in energy revenues, putting it in the same league as traditional energy exporters like Saudi Arabia.
But instead of oil and gas imports, they would export products that require very low cost sun, wind, and batteries.
The proposal: a €1 trillion India New Energy Transition (INET) Fund backed by global partners.
Deployment could include:
• 1.25 TW solar
• 250 GW wind
• 2 TWh storage
• 400 GW hydrogen electrolysers
This would fundamentally reshape India’s energy economy.
India’s energy demand is rising fast:
2023: ~39 EJ
2030: ~55 EJ
2050: ~73 EJ
Without a major financing breakthrough, fossil fuels could still supply 60–65% of energy in 2050, and energy imports could stay above $200B annually.
Renewable energy is mostly upfront capital cost.
Unlike fossil fuels, where fuel and maintenance dominate.
So financing cost matters enormously. Lower capital costs = dramatically cheaper energy.
Fix financing and India becomes the lowest-cost clean energy producer on Earth.
India already has the lowest solar construction costs in the world.
Solar EPC cost:
US: ~$1.27/W
Europe: ~$0.65/W
India: ~$0.31/W
But there’s a catch.
India’s cost of capital is far higher, which wipes out much of that advantage
India has a once-in-a-century opportunity to become a global energy superpower.
Not because of oil or gas.
Because of solar, wind, storage, and hydrogen.
A $1T India New Energy Transition Fund could turn energy imports into energy exports. 🧵
Virtual Power Plants can help data centers get connected faster while giving consumers a 20% discount on their electricity bill.
VPPs are anchored by batteries, EV charging, and smart water heaters.
Fastest way to meet load growth.
@energyempire.bsky.social
