Heidi Shierholz

White House economist calls for 'fresh set of eyes at the BLS' after weak jobs report | Fox Business Video National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett discusses the latest jobs report, the firing of the labor statistics chief and the consumer impact of tariffs on 'Fox News Sunday.'

Hassett went on TV and claimed you can’t trust the economic data anymore because all the recent revisions are partisan.
A bald-faced lie.
Every serious economist still in this administration should resign. They are actively underminding the US economy by lending their credibility to this horse****

When you’ve even lost O’Leary…
And one observation: you don’t need to go back to Ancient Rome (as O’Leary does) to find analogues. There are much more recent cases of authoritarians axing (or even executing) statisticians when the numbers proved inconvenient.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...

The Bureau Labor Statistics Jobs Numbers Are Right, We Can Check There is zero reason to question the integrity of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs numbers.

Of course the Bureau of Labor Statistics is right about job growth and Trump is lying, but just in case you wanted to check, you can substack.com/home/post/p-...

What to make of POTUS's attempt to fire the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?

Let's run down what knowledgable people are saying...

The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)

Why do the jobs numbers get revised?

our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months

1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly

Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N

www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...

I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today

President Trump called into question the integrity of the Employment Situation report that the BLS released this morning. He accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately reporting false numbers to reflect poorly on this administration. This baseless, damaging claim undermines the valuable work and dedication of BLS staff who produce the reports each month. This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system. The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show. The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference. The BLS uses the same proven, transparent, reliable process to produce estimates every month. Every month, BLS revises the prior two months’ employment estimates to reflect slower-arriving, more-accurate information. This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers. U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science. We call on Congress to respond immediately, to investigate the factors that led to Commissioner McEntarfer’s removal, to strongly urge the Commissioner’s continued service, and ensure that the nonpartisan integrity of the position is retained. The statement from the President undermines these tenets and politicizes data which cannot and should not be used for political points.

"...escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence & integrity of the federal statistical system.

"The president seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news.

"...firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit & undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics..."

The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau. For a full statement opposing this move, read:

Trump’s first BLS Commissioner, Bill Beach, calls today’s firing groundless and dangerous.
www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

The very clear message is that the BLS head will be fired if they do not produce numbers that meet Trump's approval.

In related news, these are the last set of BLS job numbers we can assume have not been doctored.

Firing the BLS Commissioner because you don't like the data is a dark day.

Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased.

#econsky

Very much agree with Justin, further thoughts here: www.epi.org/press/trumps...

screenshot of the linked post titled "Trump’s firing of BLS commissioner is undemocratic and economically dangerous" by Heidi Shierholz, which reads: Today, Trump directed his team to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because he didn’t like the jobs numbers they released. This is a move straight out of an autocratic playbook. BLS is one of the most respected statistical agencies in the world, known for its methodological rigor, independence, and transparency. The president’s belief that the BLS commissioner personally “produced” the jobs numbers is preposterous and shows a complete misunderstanding of how government statistical agencies operate. These data are the product of careful work by hundreds of expert economists, statisticians, and civil servants following transparent, well-established methodologies.

From @hshierholz.bsky.social: Trump's firing of BLS commissioner is undemocratic and economically dangerous. Between illegal firings, starving data agencies of resources, and now political intimidation, the US looks set to run into the next economic downturn flying blind

www.epi.org/press/trumps...

The people of this country deserve honest numbers. They also deserve leaders who don’t try to destroy the institutions that keep our economy stable and our democracy intact. 12/

Between illegal firings, starving data agencies of needed resources, and now political intimidation, the U.S. looks set to run into the next economic downturn flying blind. The cost of this incompetence will be felt by working people first. 11/

And the firing of the BLS commissioner comes on top of reporting that almost 20% of price inflation data was unable to be collected for the month of July, stemming from severe resource constraints. 10/

This manufactured chaos will reduce business investment and consumer spending, making a recession—and soaring unemployment—far more likely in coming months. 9/

If policymakers and the public can’t trust the data—or suspect the data are being manipulated—confidence collapses and reasonable economic decision-making becomes impossible. It’s like trying to drive a car blindfolded. 8/

And it’s not just undemocratic—it’s economically dangerous. The economy runs on reliable data. Businesses use these numbers to decide whether to hire or expand. The Fed uses them to set interest rates. State and local governments use them to plan budgets. 7/

To fire her over an official data release—simply because the numbers do not serve a particular political narrative—is a deeply dangerous attack on the foundations of a functioning democracy. 6/

Dr. Erika McEntarfer is a highly respected labor economist with deep expertise in labor market data. Like all BLS commissioners, she is bound by strict norms of nonpartisanship and statistical integrity. 5/

These data are the product of careful work by hundreds of expert economists, statisticians, and civil servants following transparent, well-established methodologies. 4/

The president’s belief that the BLS commissioner personally “produced” the jobs numbers is preposterous and shows a complete misunderstanding of how government statistical agencies operate. 3/

BLS is one of the most respected statistical agencies in the world, known for its methodological rigor, independence, and transparency. 2/

Today, Trump directed his team to fire the commissioner BLS because he didn’t like the jobs numbers BLS released. This is a move straight out of an autocratic playbook. 1/

Great thread about what the immigration data in the CPS are telling us (the CPS is the same survey that the unemployment rate comes from, which means new numbers come out every #JobsDay)

Like Heidi points out, Trump's policies are rapidly shrinking the immigrant population, but the observed data may understate the decline

The actual Jan-July immigrant population drop could be 2.6 million (5.1%)

This is because survey benchmarks were set before Trump’s actions kicked into high gear

Trump's war on immigrants shows up clearly in the data: the age 16+ immigrant popn has dropped 3.8%—1.9 million—since January. It's a moral catastrophe, and an economic one. Deporting 1 million immigrants per year will cost ~6 million jobs over Trump's term.

www.epi.org/publication/...

Big news in today's #jobs report are the revisions. The labor market is much weaker than originally reported the last two months. While payrolls grew 73k in July, May and June data were revised down a total of 258k to 19k and 14k, respectively, bringing 3-month average growth down to 35k.
#EconSky

Whoa, the jobs numbers are really bad. With the new July numbers and revisions to May/June, the avg monthly job growth of the last 3 months is 35,000. As Josh says, if we were entering a recession, this is what it would look like.