theweatherguy

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Another Snow Storm?

Many of us probably just got done clearing snow after yesterday's storm and hoping that would be end of it for this winter season. We may be in for another storm this coming Sunday. ... buff.ly/smprCod

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Storm Review and Other Thoughts

I'm already getting requests for comment on a major storm for next weekend. As of this morning, only the European AI and regular ECMWF were showing.. buff.ly/vRA29I4

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Storm Review and Other Thoughts

Posted Sunday 01/25/26 @ 5:03 PM — T ... buff.ly/vRA29I4

@wxfront.bsky.social Hi I’ve given your app a promotion mention on my site. theweatherguy.net

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Changing Over

The snow is changing over to sleet early in the expected time window about 12 noon in my neck of the woods. We have about 7.5″ at the time of the changeover. ... buff.ly/vRA29I4

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Storm Update -Sunday

Posted Sunday 01/25/26 @ 10:21 AM — The snow began as forecast between 2 and 4 AM and the storm is playing out as forecast.

Based on a review of last night's models and comparison... buff.ly/vRA29I4

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Sunday’s Storm Forecast Update

Posted Saturday 01/24/26 @ 4:09 PM — I've looked at multiple models and here are the trends for Sunday's snow/sleet storm—

Depending upon the model, light snow starts near the ... buff.ly/vRA29I4

HRRR snow accumulation meteogram for grid point Blue Bell - Wings Field. Snow starts about 4 PM. The major portion of the snow depth occurs before 2 PM.

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Storm Forecast Update

The latest HRRR, just available, shows the snow starting around 4 AM (Blue Bell grid point) and ending for the most part by 10 PM with a changeover to a mix of sleet and freezing rain... buff.ly/vRA29I4

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Storm Forecast- Late Friday Update

I'm reviewing various models. As explained yesterday models have various ways of providing snow accumulation data. Many are not all that useful. .. buff.ly/vRA29I4

NBM mean snow accumulation forecast (calculated) by 9 AM Monday morning.

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Storm Forecast Update

I only had time this morning to review the latest NBM 13z data which has updated precipitation info.

Here's an important insight from the NBM (Model Blend): ... buff.ly/vRA29I4

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Storm Forecast Update

Interesting differences in the forecast have developed between models regarding the transition to sleet and freezing rain. Let me list the issues— ... buff.ly/vRA29I4

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Storm Update

I had a chance to review some additional models since my last post.

First, the snow will start near the city between 11 PM Saturday and 3 AM Sunday. Heaviest snow will occur ... buff.ly/vRA29I4

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Thursday Storm Update

The storm continues to present challenges to a correct snow forecast.

As posted earlier, there's an increasing trend for warm air to infiltrate at levels between 6000 and 10,000 feet.. buff.ly/vRA29I4

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Originally Posted — I’ve decided, perhaps prematurely, that this im ... buff.ly/exYzGp1

13z NBM Increased snow totals through Tuesday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

SNOW STORM SUNDAY — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx #snowstorm

Here's the latest GFS forecast for midnight Sunday (Monday) Based on the higher resolution RRFS, the storm starts between 2 AM and 4 AM Sunday. The NBM has it starting 4 hours earlier.

The latest GFS … buff.ly/pSjENLF

Thanks. 😊

ECMWF forecast for 4 PM Sunday. Two distinct low centers. Most important is the location of the red and violet critical thickness lines. They are north of us suggesting the strong possibility of mixed precipitation .

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Sunday Storm Update

There have been some significant changes in the model forecasts today and it's unclear how much these changes will play into the sensible weather (read: how much snow vs mixed precipitation ). ... buff.ly/zfjmDM4

Here's the NBM model through early Tuesday morning. Based on current trends, I believe this is closer to the truth—

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Winter Storm Update

I've reviewed the latest models which continue to forecast a major snowstorm for our area this weekend.

Here are the trends— ... buff.ly/zfjmDM4

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

About the Weekend Storm…

these synoptic scale models were forecasting incredible amounts of snow, especially areas just south of the Philadelphia region.

Things have changed somewhat since this morning .. buff.ly/zfjmDM4

07z NBM forecast mean snow totals 7 AM Monday. White contours 1 inch increments. The storm may last longer than this!

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Major Storm Possible Beginning Sunday

A major long-duration winter snow storm is increasingly likely beginning Sunday. The ECMWF-AI and HGEFS (AI) models along with the GFS are all forecasting a major storm .. buff.ly/zfjmDM4

RRFS calculated wind chill temperatures ("apparent temperatures") at 8 AM Tuesday.

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Cold! & Possible Snow Again this Weekend

It's winter in Philadelphia and it does get cold, and cold it will be. Earlier I posted the forecast low temperatures Wednesday morning.

The wind chill temperatures ... buff.ly/zfjmDM4

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

The cold weather that has arrived today and that will be reinforced with another front later today has been well-advertised. By sunrise Wednesday morning, we'll have reached our lowest temperatures— ... buff.ly/beqZBgq

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Additional Snow Update

Posted Sunday 01/18/26 @ 2:20 PM — The lull in the sn ... buff.ly/QrEZJU6

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Additional Snow Update

The lull in the snow was expected. Expect additional snow to pick up in intensity between 3 PM and 7 PM, tapering off from west to east about 8-9 PM.

Using the latest 17z RRFS data, here . buff.ly/QrEZJU6

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Snow Update

While there is little upstream from us at this time, the models are forecasting strengthening of the low pressure system later this afternoon off the coast with a widening of its precipitation shield ... buff.ly/QrEZJU6

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Sunday Forecast Update

The latest models show about 0.20" water equivalent, falling as snow in our region beginning before daybreak and ending sometime late Sunday afternoon or evening. ... buff.ly/QrEZJU6

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Sunday Forecast Update

Right now, the latest models show the developing coastal low to have its westward precipitation shield give us another inch or two of snow on Sunday. Looking back, the ECMWF-AI... buff.ly/QrEZJU6

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Forecast Review — I violated my own rule of forecast updates. “Never update the forecast to a newer model run when precipitation is active or imminent.” . buff.ly/QrEZJU6

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Sunday’s Interesting Forecast Update

…with the AI models having showed more snow for Sunday than the numerical models.

Last night, the numerical models have moved towards the the AI model forecasts with a .... buff.ly/QrEZJU6

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST — #Philadelphia #weather #PAwx #PhillyWx

Saturday Forecast Update

The 12z RRFS has become available (with new upper air data). Snowfall totals are much lower than the previously posted update based on the 11z RRFS. ... buff.ly/QrEZJU6