@wolfejosh.bsky.social
Co-Founder @Lux Capital | Trustee @SfiScience Santa Fe Inst | Chair @CiPrep Coney Island Prep (Brooklyn) | Co-Founder of Carson, Quinn & Bodhi w/ @ltwolfe
Flashback 5+ years ago when we signed original HugginfFace @hf.co term sheet.
Lux has been fortunate and grateful to partner with you all 🤗
Team Tyson
15.11.2024 04:43 — 👍 10 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
4/ Headlines herald
HANGOVER of what was or
HARBINGER of what will be
low rates
brought future returns forward
pushed past risks out
now reverting
what worked in recent past, won’t work in near future
MASSIVE misallocations + excess indebtedness built up
Markets may FALL 30%+
3/ Everyone wants to be invested TODAY––where they ought’ve been 5yrs ago
EXPECT
-widespread surprises
-large layoffs
-big LP pullback (OVERcalled/overallocated)
-GP stress (UNDER-reserved; under duress)
-punishing pay2pays + hi structured terms
-small funds = existential risk
2/ from STRIFE to STRIVE
-Lux top 10 co’s have warchests nearly $5B of cash
-PAST prudence ought lead to powerful FUTURE potential
-new rounds 50-80% LOWER
-ownership (entry price) x outcome (exit price) x positiong sizing (based on incremental returns on incremental capital)
1/ Just released. New Lux LP letter. Q4 2022…
(a few LPs have said it has ome of our boldest calls + positioning in a decade––based on what we believe happens next in MARKETS + MACRO—even as cutting-edge science + technology marches ahead…)
4/ Headlines herald
HANGOVER of what was or
HARBINGER of what will be
low rates
brought future returns forward
pushed past risks out
now reverting
what worked in recent past, won’t work in near future
MASSIVE misallocations + excess indebtedness built up
Markets may FALL 30%+
3/ Everyone wants to be invested TODAY––where they ought’ve been 5yrs ago
EXPECT
-widespread surprises
-large layoffs
-big LP pullback (OVERcalled/overallocated)
-GP stress (UNDER-reserved; under duress)
-punishing pay2pays + hi structured terms
-small funds = existential risk
2/ from STRIFE to STRIVE
-Lux top 10 co’s have warchests nearly $5B of cash
-PAST prudence ought lead to powerful FUTURE potential
-new rounds 50-80% LOWER
-ownership (entry price) x outcome (exit price) x positiong sizing (based on incremental returns on incremental capital)
1/ Just released. New Lux LP letter. Q4 2022…
(a few LPs have said it has ome of our boldest calls + positioning in a decade––based on what we believe happens next in MARKETS + MACRO—even as cutting-edge science + technology marches ahead…)
