In a new blog @alanmanning4.bsky.social explains why change was needed to the "seriously flawed" social care visa route and how the government now needs to deliver on its promise to make care work a more attractive job.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/poli...
@alanmanning4.bsky.social
Labour market economist at CEP and LSE. Personal views only
In a new blog @alanmanning4.bsky.social explains why change was needed to the "seriously flawed" social care visa route and how the government now needs to deliver on its promise to make care work a more attractive job.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/poli...
Why the social care visa had to go. TLDR; in long-run itβs an expensive and ineffective way to hire care workers.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Great to finally see data like this being published. Though more data means more opportunities for cherry-picking so look out for that. www.gov.uk/government/p...
13.05.2025 20:36 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0βͺGreat to hear from @sarahoconnorft.ft.com ft.ft.com
abt what happened to the UK truck driver shortage. Short-run: higher pay helped a lot. Medium-run: still structural issues making it hard to offer competitive pay and conditions.
www.ft.com/content/f320...
1/ π¨ New paper! π¨
How do the economic trajectories of children of immigrants vary across 15 high-income countries? We study intergenerational mobility of immigrants, using individual-level linked parent-child data across Europe, North America, and beyond. π§΅π #EconSky
Latest paper on comparing intergenerational mobility of the kids of migrants with kids of locals in 15 countries. It has a very long author list so I feel like a real scientist at last. www.iza.org/publications...
18.02.2025 10:14 β π 32 π 14 π¬ 1 π 1Good to see this happening. Important to have right not rushed decision. And that the labour market in social care is part of remit as current model doesnβt work. Lab mkt wasnβt really in Dilnot report as not part of their commission www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
03.01.2025 17:21 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0 New discussion paper with @tessahall.bsky.social on immigration and productivity.
TLDR;
Evidence consistent with view nothing especially good (or bad) about migrants; they are only human
cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/PUBLICA...
Good col from @sarahoconnorft.bsky.social. I think a lot of motivated reasoning on immig. Too many commentators start from view immig is good (or bad), then use any argument that comes to mind to make preferred case without bothering much about intellectual inconsistency
www.ft.com/content/2bb6...
I think this might be the first sighting of the word monopsony in the Guardian. Though itβs in inverted commas so some way still to acceptance. amp.theguardian.com/sport/2024/o...
25.10.2024 11:27 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0βThere is legitimate concern that zero-hours contracts are used to shift risk from employers onto lower-paid workersβ @alanmanning4.bsky.social
in CentrePiece magazine:
cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/d...
Separate Scottish visa a bad idea unless v small pilot for remote areas. If scotland has demographic problem its long-term. Temporarily increasing population doesnt solve it. Migrants on a visa like this are likely to leave when they can. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
16.10.2024 16:26 β π 3 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0Perhaps this won't go quite as viral as an exploding cow but Rethink Immigration is on at 4pm today on Radio 4, where I'm joined by the dream team of @sundersays.bsky.social, Rob Colvile, Madeleine Sumption and @alanmanning4.bsky.social.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
Yes. When employers struggling to recruit they will often look to immigration to solve problem as they donβt like raising wages. Challenge for migration policy is to make sure there is some pressure to raise wages but not so much pressure they canβt cope
09.10.2024 14:23 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Sometimes nominal - think of P&O on Dover-Calais ferries - but probably more common to be real. Pressure on employers to raise wages is reduced if easy access to new workers even if they donβt cut nominal.
04.10.2024 20:03 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0I wrote quite a personal piece about racism now and racism then. Have a readβ¦. www.tortoisemedia.com/2024/10/04/a...
04.10.2024 06:28 β π 255 π 139 π¬ 31 π 31Errr I think this piece is over-simplified. A better framing is immigration can be used to reduce wages but doesnβt have to. And perhaps our immigration policy should make sure it doesnβt.
04.10.2024 17:35 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0Not sure I get the economics of HO Impact Assessment on cost to business of higher salary thresholds on work visas. Seems to be mostly transfers from profits to migrant workers (who are now residents) which gets scored as big cost. Perhaps I'm missing something; help!
www.ft.com/content/e2df...
Robert Jenrick offers "concrete cap" on net migration. Can have caps on immigration (at least managed part) but absent controls on emigration cannot have cap, concrete or otherwise, on net migration www.ft.com/content/5d26...
20.09.2024 10:21 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0No great secrets here. Similar episodes have always ended with agreements, often a bit dodgy, with countries of departure. Offshore processing has been tried a few times, never worked even in australia where its agreement with indonesia which did trick www.theguardian.com/world/2024/s...
17.09.2024 11:27 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Understand why you might think this a terrible decision. But wish article wld mention the uncomfortable trade-offs here. 59 year old with adult dependent may have big long- term fiscal cost tho details matter. All countries wrestling with this trade-off www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024...
16.09.2024 10:08 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Update to earlier work with Madeleine Sumption and Tessa Hall on projecting UK net migration. Will fall this year but not as much as earlier estimates as work visas still high and more students staying on . The crystal ball picture is appropriate migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/re...
10.09.2024 19:54 β π 4 π 2 π¬ 0 π 2This doesnt stand much scrutiny. Of 4 big liberalistations - HK,UKR,students, social care - only last cld be argued to be Brexit connected and numbers of migrants in social care far exceeded any loss of EU workers. Arguably more connected to austerity though. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...
08.09.2024 10:49 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0