Julius Kölzer

A key challenge in interpreting the effects of internal out-migration on voting lies in disentangling compositional from contextual effects (equally applying to our descriptive paper). @moritz-marbach.com great new paper offers empirical guidance on approaching this issue. 👇

osf.io/preprints/so...

Really cool! Do you have any indication of whether this effect persisted in the last federal election or the 2023 state election?

Screenshot of title page.

I’m happy to see this short paper with @fluegeldo.bsky.social on unexpected hikes in voting costs out in @thejop.bsky.social !
doi.org/10.1086/739405
[1/5]

Just saw this at the bus stop. Guess I am in the treated group?

🔔 Neues Working Paper 🔔

Die Frage könnte aktueller kaum sein: wie reagieren Beschäftigte auf große Handels- und Technologie-Schocks?

Weiterbildung v.a. bei positiven Schocks, nicht wenn’s schwierig wird. Und viele Ältere verabschieden sich dann in die Frührente.

Hier gibt’s alle Details 👇🏻

🚨 Job Alert! Postdoc in POLITICAL TEXT ANALYSIS in the MULTIREP project

You do quant text analysis? You are interested in political representation? Enjoy working in teams? Would like to live in a great city? Consider joining us in Vienna!

⏱️ Apply by 15/12/2025

wratil.eu/files/MULTIR...

1/4 🧵

new AfD vote share predictor just dropped

Oder ob die Aufregung über das Tool vielleicht auch einfach sehr selektiv ist und vor allem von Leuten kommt die meinen einen Punkt damit machen zu können.

On Thursday, I was at @hertieschool.bsky.social to discuss how legacies of autocratic state-building derailed Weimar democracy.

Thank you to @ariannaornaghi.bsky.social, @markkayser.bsky.social and the entire PE community for your engagement, feedback, and probing questions!

Für jeden bescheuerten Take zum Zeit-Selbstpositionstest einen Shot trinken

- Reisezug in Crottendorf kurz vor der Betriebseinstellung (1996) -

‼️Last chance to submit your paper or panel proposal to EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is TODAY!

Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩‍🏫🥳

epssnet.org/belfast-2026...

I see what you did there

regressions are haunting me in the grocery store

I can't participate in the 30-day map challenge because I only know how to make maps with AfD vote shares (the only variable I know and the most important variable on this planet)

Wer schreibt das Abstract so spät durch Nacht und Wind

Honig wach auf ich verstehe den Artikel nicht

Man kann den Methodikkasten am Ende eines Artikels tatsächlich auch lesen 🤞

Vicente Valentim: "Angela Merkel lag richtig" Haben Menschen früher rechter gedacht, als sie gewählt haben? Der Forscher Vicente Valentim sagt, dass wir eine Ursache für den Erfolg extrem rechter Parteien übersehen.

"Es herrscht die falsche Annahme, dass viele Wähler, die früher Mitte-rechts-Parteien gewählt haben, im Herzen noch immer Mitte-rechts sind. Meine Arbeit legt aber nahe, dass diese Menschen schon vorher extrem rechts gedacht haben"
www.zeit.de/politik/2025...

All of this is, of course, only aggregate data.

The patterns by neighborhood rent look quite different, and the relationship with education level is also more nuanced. A small 3% gap to Cuomo in precincts with incomes above $200,000 indicates that Mamdani performed relatively well in these areas.

Dass es in NYC republikanische Bürgermeister gab, ist, denke ich, einem weirden Parteiestablishment und absurd viel Geld geschuldet. In allen sonstigen Wahlen ist die Stadt natürlich deutlich eher links (auch bei Einstellungen I guess).

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Share widely with your students in Switzerland 🇨🇭thinking about a PhD @eui-eu.bsky.social

𝗢𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗘𝗨𝗜 𝗣𝗵𝗗 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 🇨🇭
21 Nov 2025 | 2:30pm CET

@alissasiara.bsky.social introduces the program & life at EUI, I share my experience, and we answer your questions.

👉 Register: www.eui.eu/events?id=58...

thanks!

YouGov MRP shows a Reform UK government a near-certainty if an election were held tomorrow | YouGov Second YouGov MRP model since the 2024 election projects Reform UK would win 311 seats, just 15 short of a majority

of course for vote shares*
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

YouGov MRP shows a Reform UK government a near-certainty if an election were held tomorrow | YouGov Second YouGov MRP model since the 2024 election projects Reform UK would win 311 seats, just 15 short of a majority

of vote shares like here
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Dear UK politics people, are there any current constituency-level MRP estimates that are freely available and can be easily downloaded?

habe leider schon copy right für diesen joke secured

Not looking forward to rightfully hopeful but still ambiguous takes on what the success of a progressive mayoral candidate in a liberal and deep-blue US metropolis tells progressive parties about how to defeat the far right in Europe’s multiparty systems