Manuel Serrano-Alarcon's Avatar

Manuel Serrano-Alarcon

@manuseral.bsky.social

Economist. Research fellow at the Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME), Joint Research Centre, European Commission. Public policy evaluation & health economics. Personal website: https://sites.google.com/view/manuelserranoalarcon

112 Followers  |  186 Following  |  11 Posts  |  Joined: 07.01.2025  |  1.5701

Latest posts by manuseral.bsky.social on Bluesky

In this new working paper @yaninadomenella.bsky.social and I study how intensive support can help people with intellectual and developmental disabilities find jobs. Spoiler: it not only does but also significantly raises their well-being

21.11.2025 08:14 — 👍 3    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
Unpacking the Current Surge in Sick Leave: Insights from Spanish Administrative Data This paper investigates the factors contributing to the current sharp rise in sick leave prevalence occurring in many developed countries, using Spain as a case

📈 What is driving the current surge in sick leave uptake across developed countries?

In a new working paper with Josep Amer-Mestre,
we use Spain admin data (2018–2023) as a case study to examine which factors explain this trend.

📣 Thread with results below
📝Link to the paper: shorturl.at/LFadK

19.11.2025 16:39 — 👍 3    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0

Policy implications:

▶️ measures to contain moral hazard may reduce strategic short-term absences, but focusing only on this is insufficient.
▶️ The sharp rise in long mental health leaves, especially among the youth, calls for:
• Broader preventive strategies & mental health support at work.

19.11.2025 16:39 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Regional panel models linked with national health survey further show:
• Short-term SL unrelated to changes in health indicators 👉 likely behavioural
• Long-term mental and musculoskeletal SL are significantly associated with work stress and pain-related limitations👉 likely health deterioration.

19.11.2025 16:39 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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We further decompose the rise by diagnosis group and find:

▶️Musculoskeletal and mental disorders account for ~60% of the increase, with a clear age gradient.

▶️ Mental health is the largest contributor among workers <40, explaining 35–56%

▶️Musculoskeletal explains 35–43% for workers 50+

19.11.2025 16:39 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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Short- and long-term spells behave very differently:

▶️Short-term sick leave: > 60% is explained by falling unemployment👉 likely behavioural responses due to stronger worker bargaining power

▶️Long-term sick leave: 90% unexplained 👉
likely health deterioration rather than strategic behaviour.

19.11.2025 16:39 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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Which factors actually explain this surge?

▶️Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition shows that the most commonly discussed drivers explain only ~26% of the increase.

▶️~74% unexplained by workforce composition or observable characteristics.

▶️The large inflow of migrants actually reduces the expected rise.

19.11.2025 16:39 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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We find a 36% increase in the share of working days lost to sick leave driven by:

• short spells (≤7 days): +38%
• Very long spells (17+ weeks): +39%

The increase is strikingly broad-based and parallel across SE groups.

This points to common forces rather than isolated, group-specific changes.

19.11.2025 16:39 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Spain provides a compelling case because:

▶️ 2nd highest increase in compensated sick leave in the OECD in 2014–2022.

▶️ Experienced major changes in the most frequently discussed drivers of sickness absence: ageing workforce, large unemployment fall, and big increases in healthcare waiting times.

19.11.2025 16:39 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
Unpacking the Current Surge in Sick Leave: Insights from Spanish Administrative Data This paper investigates the factors contributing to the current sharp rise in sick leave prevalence occurring in many developed countries, using Spain as a case

📈 What is driving the current surge in sick leave uptake across developed countries?

In a new working paper with Josep Amer-Mestre,
we use Spain admin data (2018–2023) as a case study to examine which factors explain this trend.

📣 Thread with results below
📝Link to the paper: shorturl.at/LFadK

19.11.2025 16:39 — 👍 3    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0
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Totally agree with the diagnosis, not sure about the suggestion of the two track system. it might create weird selection and sorting.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...

we should change the reward and publication system.

01.10.2025 04:51 — 👍 30    🔁 10    💬 5    📌 2

“El blog de 2024 está más alineado con la agenda de investigación económica internacional que nunca antes en su historia. Esta profesionalización puede explicar parte del malestar de nuestros lectores más veteranos. Pero, en último término, se trata de una cuestión del gusto de quien nos lee.”

18.09.2025 05:24 — 👍 6    🔁 5    💬 0    📌 1
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By failing to sanction Israel, EU leaders are complicit in its crimes. They must act now | Josep Borrell Europe’s silence has allowed the genocide of Palestinians to continue unchecked – undermining all it stands for, says Josep Borrell, a former EU high representative

By failing to sanction Israel, EU leaders are complicit in its crimes. They must act now | Josep Borrell

01.08.2025 08:34 — 👍 250    🔁 91    💬 11    📌 18
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JOB AD: @fbk-irvapp.bsky.social in #Trento (Italy) is looking for a #Researcher in Quantitative Public #Policy Evaluation to conduct (quasi)experimental evaluation research across different policy areas. 2Y+ contract - apply by 18/08 - Please, REPOST #EconSky LINK: jobs.fbk.eu/Annunci/Offe...

21.07.2025 19:16 — 👍 7    🔁 7    💬 0    📌 0
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« Les outils d’évaluation sont sous-utilisés par ceux qui les financent, à savoir les Etats » TRIBUNE. L’évaluation d’impact, qui permet par exemple de tester l’efficacité des politiques publiques, est massivement captée par les géants du numérique, alors que ces outils sont souvent créés par ...

Pleased to share op-ed in Le Monde: "Impact Evaluation: For GAFAM or for Citizens?"

🔗 French version (Le Monde):
www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...

🔗 English translation (Sciences Po):
www.sciencespo.fr/department-e...

Tech companies routinely use impact evaluation tools to optimize their services...

23.06.2025 16:56 — 👍 11    🔁 4    💬 1    📌 0
Graph of the effect of receiving COVID-19 aid on firm's turnover, by size, in Spain and Italy. Micro-firms were helped more than medium and large firms.

The unprecedented wave of state aid to firms across the EU during the COVID-19 pandemic raised questions about who benefited and how effective these interventions were. This column uses firm-level data from Spain and Italy – two of the countries worst affected by the pandemic – to evaluate the economic impact of aid. Targeted support for micro and small firms increased revenues and investment but had little impact on medium and large firms’ performance. Crisis support should focus on the most vulnerable businesses, and broad subsidies to large firms scrutinised.

Graph of the effect of receiving COVID-19 aid on firm's turnover, by size, in Spain and Italy. Micro-firms were helped more than medium and large firms. The unprecedented wave of state aid to firms across the EU during the COVID-19 pandemic raised questions about who benefited and how effective these interventions were. This column uses firm-level data from Spain and Italy – two of the countries worst affected by the pandemic – to evaluate the economic impact of aid. Targeted support for micro and small firms increased revenues and investment but had little impact on medium and large firms’ performance. Crisis support should focus on the most vulnerable businesses, and broad subsidies to large firms scrutinised.

Targeted support for micro and small #firms during the #pandemic increased revenues and investment but had little impact on medium and large firms' performance.
G Canzian, E Crivellaro, @tomasoduso.bsky.social, A Rita Ferrara, A Sasso, S Verzillo
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

13.06.2025 08:23 — 👍 4    🔁 3    💬 0    📌 0

🎯🚨 Oferta de Empleo en la @uahes.bsky.social 🎯🚨

Área de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico

Plaza de Profesor Ayudante Doctor

¡Ven a trabajar con nosotros! ¡Somos unos apasionados de la Economía!

11.06.2025 17:22 — 👍 3    🔁 7    💬 1    📌 0
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Competencia en el mercado y adopción de tecnología limpia Por Raúl Bajo-Buenestado y Miguel Ángel Borrella-Mas. La competencia en los mercados tiene beneficios bien conocidos: cuando las empresas compiten entre sí, suelen producir más y a menor precio, lo...

Competencia en el mercado y adopción de tecnología limpia nadaesgratis.es/admin/compet... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía

08.04.2025 05:01 — 👍 7    🔁 5    💬 0    📌 1

One week left to apply to work with us at the Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME) #econsky

17.03.2025 18:09 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
JRC Recruitment Portal

‪📣 Job opportunity: We are hiring 2 researchers at the European Commission JRC Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME)

📈 Research + policy evaluation

▶️ 3 + 3 years contract, competitive salary & benefits

▶️ Deadline: 25 March 2025

recruitment.jrc.ec.europa.eu/vacancy/1641

#econsky

27.02.2025 13:38 — 👍 3    🔁 6    💬 0    📌 1
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Crypto is for crime.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

04.03.2025 01:03 — 👍 67    🔁 16    💬 0    📌 1
JRC Recruitment Portal

‪📣 Job opportunity: We are hiring 2 researchers at the European Commission JRC Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME)

📈 Research + policy evaluation

▶️ 3 + 3 years contract, competitive salary & benefits

▶️ Deadline: 25 March 2025

recruitment.jrc.ec.europa.eu/vacancy/1641

#econsky

27.02.2025 13:38 — 👍 3    🔁 6    💬 0    📌 1
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Nada es gratis, este blog no es la excepción.

Si deseas seguir disfrutando de un análisis objetivo, riguroso y basado en evidencias, colabora con el blog de economía de referencia.

Ayúdanos a alcanzar los 6000€

nadaesgratis.es/donar

24.02.2025 13:38 — 👍 8    🔁 11    💬 0    📌 0
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Effective health aid: Evidence from Gavi’s vaccine programme Coordinated health aid for vaccination has increased coverage rates and saved the lives of children around the world.

USAID has spent $2 billion supporting vaccines through GAVI. In research, published in AEJ:Economic Policy, Kartini Shastry and I find GAVI saved 1.5 million lives at a low cost of $9,000 per child saved. See the writeup of our research in VoxDev:
voxdev.org/topic/health...

13.02.2025 15:14 — 👍 12    🔁 6    💬 1    📌 1

Muchas gracias, muy útil para recien llegados como yo

22.01.2025 11:11 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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Trump threatens a global trade war. Europe must unleash a radical alternative | Gabriel Zucman Unlike tariffs, a new form of protectionism could target climate-wrecking, untaxed corporations and their billionaire owners

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

20.01.2025 08:10 — 👍 33    🔁 16    💬 0    📌 5

📢Arne Hole and I are excited to announce the Call for Abstracts for the 2nd UAM-UJI Workshop on Economics of Health & Human Capital!

🗓️ Key dates:

Abstracts: 16 Mar 2025
Notification: 16 Apr 2025
Full papers: 1 Jun 2025
📍 20 Jun 2025 Castellón, Spain
No fees! 1/n

09.01.2025 09:28 — 👍 8    🔁 3    💬 1    📌 0
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⚠️Tener vivienda incrementa la fertilidad. Al facilitar el acceso a esta:

✅ Aumenta 3,8% probabilidad tener un hijo.
✅ Aumenta 3,2% prob. tener más de uno.
✅ Efecto >30% en jóvenes <30 años.
✅ Efecto mayor en zonas de alquiler elevado.

Estimaciones causales Brasil:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

08.01.2025 06:23 — 👍 49    🔁 22    💬 3    📌 7

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