Tiago Forte

25/ The U.S. has led technological progress since the start of the 20th century, but history shows it won't continue indefinitely in any case.

I do wonder if AI is the next pivotal technology that will allow the U.S. or China or someone else to cement their position and dominate the next era.

24/ Europe led the world starting around 1700, when their wealth surpassed Asia's

Europe demonstrated that some technologies, such as windmills/water wheels, were so important that even a small or temporary lead was enough to cement their dominance for a long time to come.

23/ He notes that different societies have taken turns as the technological pioneer:

1. The Islamic world before 1200

2. China, which was so advanced that it "came within a hair's breadth of industrialising in the fourteenth century," before declining by 1450

3. Japan until 1600

22/ All material in this thread comes from The Lever of Riches, by Prof. Joel Mokyr

(Recommended by @vgr.bsky.social)

It's mostly an exploration of Cardwell's Law: that no society stays at the cutting edge of technological progress forever

21/ #3. The telegraph (+6,706,152,000%)

The invention of the telegraph in 1837 meant information could reliably travel faster than people for the first time in history.

The top speed of information went from 10 mph to 186,000 miles per second, or 67 million times faster.

20/ #2. Arkwright's rollers & the self-acting mule (+384,500%)

Richard Arkwright invented "rollers" around 1769, which reduced what previously took Indian handspinners about 50,000 hours (!!!!!) down to 300 hours, and then down to 13 hours by the self-acting mule, a 99.73% reduction in time.

19/ It's hard for us to conceive of how much these inventions improved productivity

Examples:

#1. Sewing machine (+500%)

A conservative estimate is that it increased sewing productivity by 500%, so a task that would have taken 6 hours now only took 1 hour.

18/ #2. Binary coding of information (1725)

The organ was the first known direct application of the binary coding of information, via perforated paper rolls that controlled airflow.

The son of an organ-maker, Basile Bouchon, borrowed concepts from it to automate repeatable weaving patterns.

17/ Other key inventions were made by "tinkerers" without formal training or qualifications

Examples:

#1. Four-stroke engine (1876)

A German traveling salesman, Nicolaus August Otto, built the first gas engine using the four-stroke principle in 1876, becoming the standard for all future cars.

16/ #4. The mechanical clock (late 13th century)

The clock was the first mechanical, automatic, highly precise device, and thus became the prototypical model for all other machines.

Clockmakers became pioneers in many related inventions as they applied their newfound skills and tools.

15/ #3. Galileo's theory of mechanics and concept of force (1590–1638)

Galileo was the first to realize that the same general physical laws (such as the lever and fulcrum principle) governed all machines.

Unbelievably, up until then each machine was described as if it were unique.

14/ #2. The analytical method of breaking problems down into their component parts (1637)

Known as "the method of detail," this analytical approach was articulated by the French philosopher and mathematician René Descartes in 1637, enabling the Scientific Revolution.

13/ Some inventions are highly underappreciated, yet profoundly shaped the course of history

Examples:

#1. High-precision machine-tool making industry (late 18th century)

It made possible planing machines, milling machines, lathes, & screw-cutting machines to make precise geometric forms.

12/ #4. Human flight (in 1010)

A monk, Eilmer of Malmesbury, predated the Wright Brothers "first" flight by 893 years, by jumping off a tower in Malmesbury Abbey in England, in a self-made glider.

He flew 200 meters before crashing, breaking both legs, and maiming himself for life.

11/ #3. Airplanes, steamships, automobiles (in 1268)

Franciscan friar Roger Bacon wrote prophetic essays by 1268 envisaging airplanes, steamships, and automobiles, more than 500 years before any of them were possible.

10/ #2. The submarine (in 1624)

Dutchborn engineer Cornelius Drebbel demonstrated the basic concept of a submarine in 1624, 250 years before it could be prototyped.

9/ I also love inventions that were conceived long before they became practical

Examples:

#1. Internal combustion engine (in 1673)

Dutch physicist Christiaan Huygens suggested an engine using an internal combustion chamber, for which he wanted to use gunpowder, 186 years before it became feasible

8/ #4. Cast iron (1,600 years)

The Chinese were using blast furnaces to make cast iron by 200 B.C. – it took Europe a full 1,600 years to achieve the same technology in the late 14th century!

7/ #3. The wheelbarrow (1,000 years)

Wheelbarrows were used in China from 232 A.D. on, and probably earlier. But this incredibly simple idea, which allows one person to perform the work of two, didn't arrive in Europe until the 12th century, almost 1,000 years later.

6/ #2. The printing press (~300 years)

The first book printed in Arabic script only appeared in Istanbul in 1729, almost three centuries after the introduction of moveable type in Europe. The Koran wasn't printed until the 20th century!

5/ I'm also fascinated by inventions that were developed in one place, but then took ages to spread

Examples:

#1. The compass (230 years)

First mentioned in Europe by the Englishman Alexander Neckam in 1180, it took until 1410 until navigators truly relied on them.

4/ #3. Barbed wire

Before the earliest version was developed by Michael Kelly in 1868, no one seems to have thought of it, despite huge demand for a way to separate plots of land cheaply, and the use of steel wire since the Middle Ages for mail armor.

3/ #2. The decimal point

Introduced by Flemish engineer Simon Stevin, this stunningly simple invention (literally just a dot) took until 1585 to take hold.

2/ My 3 favorite examples:

#1. The button (for clothing)

It first appeared in Central Germany in 1230, kicking off a revolution in apparel design. Nothing equivalent was ever developed in the East, and the Japanese were delighted when they first saw them worn by Portuguese traders in 1543.

1/ One of my greatest fascinations:

Inventions that seem like they could have been developed centuries earlier, but weren't for some reason

A thread...

The next cohort of AoA's Great Decisions Course is coming up in January. It helps you develop a set of principles around which makes decision-making eased by examining the underlying emotion that might cause indecision. Thought I'd share the set of principles I remind myself of daily in #Notion. 🧵

Hey BlueSky!

Anyone I know on here?