We are now facing the biggest ever market disruption in the most systemically significant price of all.
Link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Link to research on systemically significant prices: academic.oup.com/icc/article/...
This should be paired with an internationally coordinated oil price cap and energy saving programs.
G7 strategic reserve release won’t be enough this time. An internationally coordinated price cap is necessary. The cap on Russian oil prices shows it can be done. This has to be complemented with energy saving programs. The world can’t afford a rerun of 2022 on steroids.
"We try to manage the whole inflation problem by focusing on only the interest rate whereas I would argue that there’s a range of other systemically significant prices that we should also be paying attention to if we want to achieve greater price stability."
Have been researching inflation in times of overlapping emergencies the past years. This feels like 2022 on steroids.
Am visiting the LSE this week to share some work in progress on anti-fascist economics, trying to make sense of this moment as it is unfolding.
sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/events/...
Buffer stocks in action: Oil prices fell back to below $100 after G7 finance ministers said the group “stands ready” to release petroleum from emergency reserves.
Fossil fuels are by far the most systemically significant price, it's not even close. We just saw the largest single day price jump in oil. It's the responsibility of governments to contain this price jump and not let another round of sellers' inflation take hold.
academic.oup.com/icc/article/...
The best way to end the affordability fallout from this war is to end the war.
We're in uncharted territory- if WTI crude holds these gains tomorrow- the current rise of 29.9% or $27.16/bbl would be its largest single day price jump- in both percent and amount- ever. Ever. EVER.
A double whammy for MAGAs.
Many voted for Trump based on two promises:
- no more foreign wars
- I'll bring down prices
He's reneged on both, spectacularly.
Who stands to benefit from War supply disruption?
"Gas producers, including in the US, the world’s largest LNG exporter, will probably benefit from the disruption to Qatari production as international demand for LNG pushes up prices."
www.ft.com/content/78fb...
bsky.app/profile/isab...
Los resultados hablan por sí mismos.
▶️ El 50% de estos beneficios récord fueron al 1 % más rico.
▶️ El 84%, al 10% más rico.
▶️ Menos de un 1%, al 10% más pobre.
El 0,1% más rico —apenas 131.000 hogares— recibió 26 veces más que la mitad de todos los estadounidenses.
Y mientras los más pobres pagan la cuenta, ¿qué ocurre del otro lado? ¿A dónde van los beneficios que generan las grandes petroleras?
Esta cuestión la aborda @isabellamweber.bsky.social en un nuevo estudio.
Price shocks in essentials must be buffered before they ripple through the economy and rip apart our societies. Have governments learned their lesson or will they let the fossil fuel price shock unleash another round of windfall profits and inflation?
Link: www.nytimes.com/2024/11/12/o...
The war on Iran is causing gas and oil price explosions.
Our research shows: Fossil fuel prices are the most important prices for inflation and inequality. Energy price shocks are redistribution shocks. The poorer you are, the larger the share of income you spend on essentials.
Who profits from an energy crisis in the wake of the war on Iran?
The 1%.
Thanks @nytimes.com @hclairebrown.bsky.social for covering our research.
Link to coverage: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/c...
Link to our article:www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Sellers' inflation coming to prices at the pump?
1/3: Here's what wild about gas prices right now. The past two days have seen the largest increase in gas prices ($0.22/gallon) since 2005, making it one of the fastest increases ever. What's suprising about this is not only the magnitude, but the speed of the passthrough.
Emergency insurance measures like the European crisis gas price cap were removed just when Trump came back to power. Apparently, the assumption was we were back in stable times.
The European gas price cap should be immediately reinstated and expanded to the oil market.
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Research on the oil and gas crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 showed that the gains of the boon on energy producers were not equally shared.
The wealthiest 1 per cent of the US population eventually received more than 50 per cent of energy companies’ windfall from that particular surge in prices, according to a paper published in September 2025.
“If anything [the US has] become a more powerful exporter and producer of fossil fuels since 2022. And of course, their oil majors are active globally. So I think [US shareholders] are poised to take advantage even more [now],” said Gregor Semieniuk, a professor at the University of Massachusetts who was one of the authors of the research. “Wealth distributions don’t change overnight.”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zzkt72yllokx7rstuph6rlrw/bafkreigrlauo2i24owltmckxgpdt4gyzzwwu6hvotpslz57hqdbodogxba)
Who stands to profit as energy prices are rising due to the escalating war in the Middle East? NYT and FT quoting our research on the 2022 energy crisis! Spoiler: in the West it's mainly affluent shareholders.
High time to dust off the discussions on excess profit taxes & strategic price controls.
Great to see extensive NYT & FT coverage of our paper on the fossil-fuel profit bonanza during the previous war-induced oil & gas price spike. Links in Gregor’s thread. 👇
In contrast to the West, China's political economy has long been grounded on emergency preparedness. Its massive public reserves insulated China from global price shocks in 2022 and will again be a crucial buffer now.
Link: triviumchina.com/2026/03/03/s...
Fossil fuel stocks are exploding in response to the war on Iran.
Who stands to benefit? The richest of the rich.
Who stands to lose? All of us who have to pay higher prices for energy and a new round of sellers' inflation.
Here we go again and our paper with @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social shows likely result - fat profits for the rich and increasing #inequality
Did the petrostate’s trigger-happy oligarchy read our paper and conclude “Oil price shocks are good and easy to engineer”? We’ll never know. But we know where the profits go. 👇
bsky.app/profile/greg...
The war on Iran likely brings a new oil price shock and windfall profits.
So, who stands to win?
Our research shows: Last time around (2022), the US reaped the largest fossil fuel profits of any country ($377bn). 50% went to the top 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧵
Imperial war: wealth for the plutocrats, death for the people
From @isabellamweber.bsky.social on the hellsite
Wo soll eigentlich die Nachfrage herkommen wenn Deutschland spart und die Exportmärkte wegbrechen?
Join us for this talk that will examine the financial interests opposing decarbonization with @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social
📅 3 March, 6.30pm
📍In-person and online
Register at: www.lse.ac.uk/european-ins...
