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Abu Aardvark

@abuaardvark.bsky.social

Marc Lynch. GW Professor, POMEPS commander, Brewers fan. The one true Abu Aardvark. AMERICA’S MIDDLE EAST. Find me at https://abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io

8,487 Followers  |  1,783 Following  |  3,346 Posts  |  Joined: 22.08.2023
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Posts by Abu Aardvark (@abuaardvark.bsky.social)

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The Unbelievable Madness of Our War With Iran Last year, I warned about the possibility that Israel might drag the United States into a regional conflict. What’s happening now is worse than I could have ever imagined.

Leaders around the world appear to be struggling to respond to an American administration that is no longer constrained by pretending to care about human lives, the law, or the cost of its hubris. trib.al/TNOqWQK

10.03.2026 13:37 — 👍 210    🔁 90    💬 10    📌 10

“the Houthis likely have a small window of opportunity in which to join Iran in its fight. If they don’t – if the Houthis make the decision that they are simply unwilling to aid Iran in its hour of need – they may find themselves even more isolated in the future: weak and without a patron.”

10.03.2026 13:42 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 1

“The country is asked to choose between submission to a belligerent Israel, which may lead to permanent displacement of parts of its population, or align with a resistance axis that has brought repeated destruction, dragged Lebanon into never ending conflicts… and deepened internal fragmentation.”

10.03.2026 13:40 — 👍 6    🔁 3    💬 0    📌 1

When the US or Israel blatantly violate int law for their own gain we mustn't mistake it for an effort to reform an imperfect system of laws.

Thanks @tomdannenbaum.bsky.social & @bechamilton.bsky.social for saying this with clarity and integrity.

justsecurity.org/133417/aggre...

10.03.2026 11:12 — 👍 10    🔁 9    💬 1    📌 1
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"More than 667,000 people in Lebanon have now registered on the (Lebanese) government's online platform as displaced. This is an increase of 100,000 in just one day," said Karolina Lindholm Billing, the representative in Lebanon of UNHCR

10.03.2026 12:42 — 👍 10    🔁 13    💬 0    📌 1
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Video appears to show U.S. cruise missile striking Iranian school compound The seven-second video was released by Iranian state media and directly contradicts statements made by President Trump, who said Iran was responsible for the strike.

The Iranian girls’ school was hit by a US tomahawk cruise missile. NPR has confirmed the footage.

09.03.2026 17:21 — 👍 1749    🔁 726    💬 30    📌 120

If you’re roughly my age, it’s wild to reflect on the optimism for the future Americans felt when Obama was elected — young Americans spontaneously took to the streets to celebrate! — and contrast with what we face today. The falloff over the past 18 years is hard to process.

09.03.2026 15:56 — 👍 29487    🔁 4989    💬 1673    📌 457

Good an excuse as any to not implement a plan that was never going to be implemented. Meanwhile in the real world Gaza’s agony continues and Israel continues to do what it was already doing without the world noticing anymore.

09.03.2026 21:50 — 👍 8    🔁 9    💬 0    📌 0
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Nearly 700,000 displaced in Lebanon as Middle East crisis escalates On day 10 of the war engulfing the Middle East, UN agencies on Monday reported massive displacement across the region, along with surging food and fuel prices that risk increasing hunger and suffering for the most vulnerable.

Nearly 700,000 people – including about 200,000 children – have been displaced in Lebanon in just 10 days of war in the Middle East, according to UNICEF

news.un.org/en/story/202...

09.03.2026 20:46 — 👍 23    🔁 28    💬 0    📌 5
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Trump and Rubio dismantled U.S. diplomacy. It’s making the Iran War harder. Since the start of 2026, President Donald Trump has taken the wheel of American military power and pressed hard on […]

@profsaunders.bsky.social saying eminently sensible things that the White House ought to listen to, or better yet, ought to have listened to 14 months ago.

goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...

09.03.2026 20:22 — 👍 25    🔁 7    💬 0    📌 3

Its ok to just say “brutally invaded with the goal of illegally seizing territory” you can add the proper nouns later

09.03.2026 21:40 — 👍 22    🔁 17    💬 0    📌 0

My latest piece on Turkey and the Iran war:

1️⃣ NATO intercepted a second Iranian missile that entered Turkish airspace. Ankara warned Tehran, while Iranian officials denied responsibility and said they respect Turkish sovereignty. But Iran’s so-called “mosaic defense” strategy, 1/4

09.03.2026 19:30 — 👍 12    🔁 8    💬 1    📌 1

I think maybe the Iranians, as well as the Gulf states, are going to have a vote on this one.

09.03.2026 20:45 — 👍 9    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
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The Iran War Has Exposed the Gulf's Bet on U.S. Protection Voices across the Gulf express fear and anguish over a war that has turned supposed U.S. security guarantees into liabilities.

“U.S. military bases in the Gulf, long presented as guarantors of security, have revealed themselves as liabilities.”

@miraalhussein.bsky.social on reactions in the Gulf to the Iran war, which has exposed a bet on U.S. protection. @theconversation.com www.hidden-cities.com/p/the-iran-w...

09.03.2026 17:37 — 👍 11    🔁 6    💬 0    📌 0

It’s a striking image but not that different from a lot of definitely real ones and live video feeds. Getting harder and harder to spot the slop.

09.03.2026 14:59 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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9 days in, the most basic question about the Iran war remains unanswered In just over a week, Trump and top administration officials have given at least 17 different responses about why the war began

WE STILL DON'T HAVE A CLEAR ANSWER ON THE MOST BASIC QUESTION ABOUT THE IRAN WAR

WHY did the U.S. go to war?

A Popular Information review of public statements over the last 9 days found 17 DIFFERENT EXPLAINATIONS. Many of which contradict each other.

🧵

09.03.2026 14:03 — 👍 2135    🔁 739    💬 103    📌 52

Really? Thought the source who posted was credible, that’s irritating

09.03.2026 14:05 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 2    📌 0
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“It’s targeting 101…”

My analysis for @newlinesmag.bsky.social on yet another deliberate strike against civilian infrastructure in Iran—this time hitting an entire emergency medical compound.

But Why? By whom? And where is the accountability? These answers and more we must continue to demand.

08.03.2026 15:20 — 👍 4    🔁 8    💬 1    📌 1
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Contributor: Let’s not miss the huge opportunity for peace between Lebanon and Israel Washington has a second chance to do the right thing.

It takes a special kind of ghoul to look at the carnage, mass displacement, bombing and human suffering Israel is inflicting on South Lebanon and southern Beirut and see a “Huge Opportunity for Peace Between Lebanon and Israel.”

www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...

09.03.2026 13:26 — 👍 13    🔁 5    💬 0    📌 1
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The bombing of Iranian children is an unforgivable crime America has blood on its hands.

New in PN: The bombing of Iranian children is an unforgivable crime

"American disinterest in the lives of people abroad is a resource politicians use to justify cynical wars. It's hard to see on what moral grounds we claim a right to decide the fate of those about whom we clearly care so little."

09.03.2026 11:47 — 👍 7793    🔁 2831    💬 326    📌 135

Worth watching how Israel leverages newly occupied territory in Syria (Jabal al-Sheikh area) in its present Lebanon campaign:

07.03.2026 09:02 — 👍 22    🔁 11    💬 1    📌 0
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As good an image as any to illustrate America’s contribution to Middle East peace, order, and stability over the last 30 years.

www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B0FW...

09.03.2026 12:26 — 👍 461    🔁 122    💬 7    📌 4

Black rain from the sky and sewers exploding in flames. Trump has created hell on earth.

09.03.2026 11:55 — 👍 68    🔁 27    💬 4    📌 0
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The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s.

Dan Yergin: “We are looking at what is by far the biggest disruption in world history in terms of daily oil production.”

09.03.2026 00:56 — 👍 56    🔁 30    💬 3    📌 3
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What is the ‘acid rain’ in the wake of US bombings in Iran? An atmospheric scientist explains This rain would include acids but also likely many other pollutants harmful to humans and the environment. It may be worse than the term ‘acid rain’ conveys.

A more extended overview here on air pollution born from the bombed oil depots in #Iran by Israel and health and environmental risks from acid rain that followed. theconversation.com/what-is-the-...

09.03.2026 09:34 — 👍 16    🔁 21    💬 0    📌 0
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The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s.

WSJ: 'The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s threatening the global economy and sending oil prices soaring nearly 60%' www.wsj.com/world/middle...

09.03.2026 05:33 — 👍 21    🔁 12    💬 1    📌 1
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a close up of a man with red hair wearing a leather vest and making a funny face . ALT: a close up of a man with red hair wearing a leather vest and making a funny face .

Finally got to do the Tyrion “I drink and I know things that’s what I do” meme irl and my partner is so mad 😂

08.03.2026 21:58 — 👍 7    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

I do think, and wrote, that US and Israel have different preferred end goals. But the Trump admin is so inchoate, divided and rudderless that there’s almost no way for it to even say, much less demand, what it actually wants.

08.03.2026 21:47 — 👍 21    🔁 7    💬 0    📌 0
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Scoop: U.S. dismayed by Israel's Iran fuel strikes, sources say The U.S. message to Israel was "WTF."

"Israel's strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots went far beyond what US expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking first significant disagreement between the allies." Not clear how big a rift this is, but Israeli and US interests aren't identical. www.axios.com/2026/03/08/u...

08.03.2026 20:56 — 👍 44    🔁 18    💬 4    📌 16
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State Dept. Said to Order Diplomats in Saudi Arabia to Leave

NEW: The State Dept. has ordered diplomats in Saudi Arabia to leave. It's the first mandatory ordered departure issued by the agency during the US-Israel war on Iran, and indicates US officials fear more violence. Iranian drones hit the embassy in Riyadh. Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/w...

08.03.2026 21:28 — 👍 232    🔁 149    💬 15    📌 18