"The legal frameworks governing base use are complex, and the terms of these agreements are not publicly known. For Iran, keeping that ambiguity alive serves a strategic purpose that long predates the current conflict..." writes @elhamfakhro.bsky.social
Is “end the war” one of the ways
News from Iran & Lebanon increasingly resembles years of bloodshed in Gaza—civilian areas pummeled, international law ignored & a spiral of war endangering millions. Understanding why means understanding the US-Israel dynamic in one key period: under President Joe Biden, after October 7, 2023
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To understand the true depth of the tactical and strategic challenge posed by Iran’s closure of Hormuz, read @proftalmadge.bsky.social. www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-...
To be fair the negotiations were never meant to go anywhere, they were just a smokescreen to buy time for the military buildup. But still.
Hegseth probably spends a lot of his time on XTwitter instead of doing his job and will take this as an ego challenge to kill more people
“It is not clear what the target was.” - Reuters
My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-...
"No Gulf leader is likely to emerge from this conflict unchanged. They’ll face questions: how to defend borders and cities; how much to trust Washington; how to engage with the global economy and markets; and how to cooperate with each other. The longer the war burns, the deeper the transformation."
Excellent reporting from Beirut by @justinsalhani.bsky.social www.aljazeera.com/features/202...
My latest for @972mag.com on how Israel’s war is against Lebanon.
Not Hezbollah. Lebanon.
www.972mag.com/israels-rene...
Quoted @justinsalhani.bsky.social
The Trump administration currently has no viable way of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Military escorts for tankers and other civilian ships are too dangerous to try, U.S. officials and military analysts told us: www.wsj.com/world/middle...
🇧🇭 🇮🇷 🛢️ 📈 Huge fire after attack on fuel tanks in Bahrain
An Iranian attack on fuel tanks in Bahrain has caused a huge fire, with nearby residents told to stay at home. Iran has continued to press a campaign aimed at disrupting global energy markets in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes
Israeli settlers in the West Bank harass, terrorise, destroy, burn, injure and kill Palestinians, their properties and livestock every day, while the IDF is aiding and abetting them.
Every. Day.
www.972mag.com/israeli-sett...
I still believe Hezbollah is in deep trouble, but Sam got this right. They’re clearly more effective now than most—including myself and apparently also Israel—had anticipated.
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BREAKING: The UN refugee agency says up to 3.2 million people in Iran have been displaced by the ongoing war. Follow AP’s live updates.
The IEA now says the US-Israel Iran war will see the largest oil disruption in history (!) That's bigger than the 1970s oil crisis.
How did you all enjoy the pandemic global supply chain breakdown, btw? This is a US-Israeli-made one
gulfnews.com/business/ene...
I agree with @ayoub.bsky.social that “Israel’s territorial ambitions and drive for total domination far outweigh any commitment to long-term regional stability.”
“Houthis’ current absence.. reflects differing calculations within the group, weighing the cost of joining a broad regional war against the risks to the power they have built in Yemen.. if conflict evolves into a prolonged, open-ended regional confrontation.”
sanaacenter.org/publications...
The US-Israeli war on Iran is far worse than Gulf states feared, prompting rage against Iran, dismay with Washington, and deep and growing suspicion of Israel's regional ambitions.
My oped today for Haaretz, because someone has to tell Israelis such things.
www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026...
#Israel just attacked „Al Ramlet El Baida“, #Beiruts public beach area. So far there have been reports of many injuries and more than 8 deaths. This is a public beach where people stroll the seaside and where many displaced people who couldn’t find shelter slept. This is pure horror.
Southern leg of my America’s Middle East tour kicks off today - University of Alabama, come see me over lunch today; Emory, I’ll be with you Monday evening. Much to talk about, sadly.
www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B0FW...
What Israel is doing to Lebanon, again, is criminal
Reporting on the horrific direct strike on several residential buildings in eastern Tehran. This isnt just a story of carnage - it is also a story of neighbors and passers by rushing to the scene to try and save people trapped under the rubble www.dropsitenews.com/p/tehran-str...
“Decapitation campaigns… rarely eliminate movements embedded in local political orders…they fragment decision-making structures and produce adversaries that are weaker yet more adaptive, less predictable, and ultimately destabilizing.” Renad Mansour
warontherocks.com/2026/03/as-w...
Funny, I just got one of these invitations for a highly academic, quite expensive edited volume and I knew there had to be a catch.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/b...
First article I've seen claim to have direct confirmation that Bahrain has re-invited foreign forces into the country to help suppress protestors. Interestingly, in this case it is alleged that the kingdom is using Jordanian anti-riot police.
The FBI thinks you are fucking stupid. Iran has zero capability to cross the Pacific and sea-launch a drone attack on California. This is too fucking dumb for me to comment on further.
Hizbullah missile wave tonight makes clear how many of the early takes on Hizbullah’s March 1 attack were silly and premature: tcf.org/content/comm...
Hizbullah has been preparing; presumably spent past year-plus rearming, reorganizing and undertaking major counterintelligence effort.
