Justin Mikulka

US LNG exports will shrink if margin squeeze intensifies Soaring U.S. natural gas prices are eroding profit margins for the nation's LNG producers, a trend that could deepen in the coming years, forcing exports to drop as global competition heats up.

"NO LNG OUTPUT CUTS … FOR NOW

On the one hand, this suggests that production is unlikely to be curtailed next year as spreads are very unlikely to breach the $2 level. But that could change in 2027 and 2028 when more global supply comes onstream, mostly from the U.S. and Qatar."

headline from dec 2024 announcing Shell and Argentina's major LNG export project. Headline from today saying Shell has "stepped away" from the project.

What a difference a year makes.

Are those the only two options you can come up with?

I've just finished up at a conference hosted by Bayt Al Hikma (House of Wisdom) here in Baghdad, a centre of learning and research. Two days discussion about the energy sector and how the future is in renewable energy.

If Iraq is planning for that future everyone else should too ..

Saudi Arabia secures financing for 15 GW of new solar and wind capacity A consortium led by Acwa Power, Water and Electricity Holding Co. (Badeel) and Saudi Aramco Power Co. has secured a $5.9 billion senior debt facility for seven Saudi Arabia renewable energy projects t...

Thanks for the update. Did you see this?

www.pv-magazine.com/2025/12/01/s...

They don't feel stupid because they are rich. And they, and most of society, believes wealth = intelligence.

And you don't get a nice dose of benzene while doing it!

At this point I'd be seriously concerned about my future employment prospects if I was working for a large US auto company.

Picture of the Week: The New Lava 5 EV from Leapmotor which is just being released in China. It has a range of 605km and costs between 105,800-131,800 yuan (circa €13-16k)....At those prices and with that range you can see why over 60% of all cars sold in China are electric...

As the U.S. doubles down on gas powered vehicles, the world will quickly move to smarter choices.

I read this week how one of the top marketing people at GM was still talking about range anxiety.

Satellite quantification of methane emissions from South American countries: a high-resolution inversion of TROPOMI and GOSAT observations Abstract. We use 2021 TROPOMI and GOSAT satellite observations of atmospheric methane in an analytical inversion to quantify national methane emissions from South America at up to 25 km × 25 km resolu...

This paper puts Argentina's methane emissions at 5.9%.

Which is a bit higher than the EU target of 0.2%.

acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/...

Historic deal will see Argentina export Vaca Muerta gas to Europe for eight years Consortium of local companies selling via seaways finalises an eight-year agreement with one of the most powerful energy firms in the world.

The EU apparently wants to lie to itself about the reality of how dirty US LNG is. They've certainly got a lot of help to make this case.

However, they also seem to want to find even dirtier gas. LNG from Argentina? That requires some big lies!

like i said months ago: reopen alcatraz and fill it with tech billionaires. they must be stopped.

bar chart showing huge increases in global LNG supply through 2030

From a presentation I made earlier this week - that "glut wedge" Seb refers to.

CHART DECK: Bear market spells trouble for LNG exporters PLUS: Cleaning Up podcast, Mozambique LNG, Australia’s cautionary tale

From Seb Kennedy and Energy Flux this morning.

"The dramatic collapse in China’s LNG imports combined with accelerating supply growth are eclipsing Europe’s increased imports, inflating the physical surplus. Demand simply cannot keep up, and this is barely the thin end of the glut wedge."

Have we considered the possibility that one of the reasons there has been a noticeable slump in public concern on climate is because there has been a noticeable slump of concern for climate from *within the movement itself*

I did an interview yesterday with an EU podcaster. They were arguing that European countries were forced by Trump's policies to buy US LNG. As if the European countries had no control over this. I pointed out they have plenty of control and choices to make. Like this choice to support gas.

"A ticking time bomb"

Dr Barbara Kneale tells Martin Stew what it's like to live near the Jameson Road Landfill. Local residents describe foul odours from the landfill, bordering a former chemical plant waste site. ITV News covered our report on landfill pollution with @investigate-europe.eu

This is what I wrote on LinkedIn.

"Art and I don't agree on a lot but I've found when it comes to drilling deep holes in the ground chasing profits, his track record is pretty damn good."

Lightning in a Bottle - The American Prospect Regulatory capture is at the root of the affordability crisis in electricity. Public power could offer a way out.

Activists have a plan to lower Americans’ energy bills: public power. It’s a proven alternative to utilities that have squeezed billions from ratepayers, showing our infrastructure can serve a public good, not a private profit. From James Baratta: trib.al/a1roqYL

Twitter retweet by Elon Musk reading: "If current trends continue, Whites will go from being a small minority of world population today to virtually extinct!" above a meaningless fake graphic pushing great replacement lies.

if you still use twitter you support white supremacy

Support independent journalists. It is a tough gig but where we get a lot of our best news!

I don't see why we need fusion when SMRs are going to deliver endless cheap power...checks calendar.....soon....soonish...ok it won't be cheap but Bill Gates likes it and has sunk a lot of money into it....

Prof Dave Megson: "We see plastic pollution and think it’s an issue, we smell sewage pollution and think it’s an issue, but I’m much more concerned about the invisible risks from forever chemicals which can cause much more severe health effects."

Apparently reporting the truth is not a path to a large audience or a good paycheck.

View Alistair Alexander’s graphic link Alistair AlexanderAlistair Alexander • 1stPremium • 1st Ecologies of Technology - research, writing, engagement, workshops, project and proposal developmentEcologies of Technology - research, writing, engagement, workshops, project and proposal development 1d • Edited • 1 day ago • Edited • Visible to anyone on or off LinkedIn I recently posted that creating one 10-second AI video on OpenAI’s Sora app takes 1 kilowatt hour - 10% of the daily energy of a German household. Someone asked: What about Netflix and online gaming - surely they use a lot of energy too? It’s a good question, and it comes up a lot whenever AI energy is discussed - and answering it helps to put AI’s energy demand in perspective. Let's start with Netflix - a credible estimate from The Carbon Trust in 2021 said that 1 hour’s streaming took around .18 kilowatt hours. So in that case, making one 10 second Sora Video takes the same as watching 5 and a half of hours of Netflix. And in case you’re wondering, watching HD or 4K makes virtually no difference. Most of that energy by far is from your own device, so a large TV takes a lot more than a smartphone. In the Sora estimate, a device is not included. Online gaming is far harder to estimate, there are no clear numbers, but I found some clues. One analysis looks at hosting Destiny 2, a popular online game, on an AWS “ng4b.16xlarge” instance. (you can find out more how I've calculated in the link below). By my estimates that will come to around 15 watts per player per hour. But again your home device is doing most of the work - nearly 20 times more. Add a Playstion or PC, that could be 250 watts, so that’s .265 Kwh for every hour of gaming. So making 1 Sora Video takes 4 hours of gaming. And it will be dozens of hours more if you use a smartphone. But with AI’s energy use, we should take a systemic view; after all, an AI model is a massive industrial system with a truly global impact. We don’t have p…

An estimate of the energy cost of producing one single 10 second Sora video: one kilowatt hour.

- Deplete and then recharge your iphone 17 68 times
- 10% of daily German household use
- 5.5 hours of Netflix
- ~4hrs of gaming

This is probably a huge underestimate

www.linkedin.com/posts/alista...

Foreign group wants to build 'e-methane' plant in Nebraska The companies said in a news release that they plan to build a facility capable of producing up to 75,000 tons of biomethane annually. The gas would be exported to Japan.

Making methane from clean hydrogen in Nebraska to export to Japan is a recipe to lose a lot of money for absolutely no reason. There is no need for this idea.

Geothermal for heating and cooling will likely be very useful. Enhanced geothermal for power production is unlikely to be unless money is no object.

Enhanced geothermal is not about providing heat.

There are many promising applications for geothermal heating.

I have a trusted contact who works in the oil industry who said enhanced geothermal will never work but as you point out, it involves drilling holes and that is what the oil industry knows how to do so they will fund it.

Just more distraction from the real solutions.

I got blocked here on Bluesky by a well known energy podcaster who was promoting this tech when I asked him about the economics of enhanced geothermal. He didn't answer, just got angry and blocked me.