Patrick De Haan

When comparing yearly highs to lows it may be the least volatile year in many years

Baker Hughes data just out shows weekly US oil rig count up 2 to 419, down 60 from a year ago.

India's largest conglomerate stops Russian oil imports amid global pressure The White House has welcomed the move by Reliance Industries, India's largest importer of Russian oil.

India's largest conglomerate stops Russian oil imports amid global pressure www.bbc.com/news/article...

Finally refineries are getting more attention! After years of closures, the House has passed the REFINER act (HR 1085). It's not yet a sweeping overhaul, but its a solid strategic first step pushing the government to look at refining capacity & identify weaknesses, propose fixes.

Great Lakes wholesale gasoline prices are within 10c/gal of falling to multi-year lows. If your gas prices just shot up (cycled) do NOT be in a rush to fill up, most prices should soon back below $3/gal (exception Chicago proper)

12 years ago today I was in the GasBuddy office in Canada with some terrific colleagues, creating algorithms to detect price hikes, which turned into our Price Hike Alert system!

Great Lakes #gasprices should begin to recede across the board. Future price cycles should be to reduced amounts now that BP's Whiting, IN refinery appears to be fully back online. Watch and wait for plenty of sub-$3/gal prices so long as nothing changes!

With less than a week before Thanksgiving, the national average price of gasoline stands at $3.11/gal, up 6c from a year ago, while diesel stands at $3.81/gal, up 30c from a year ago and also the highest since July, 2024.

Challenges persist w/the Olympic Pipeline- both lines are shut, WA has declared an emergency so truckers can drive more hours to provide Jet fuel to SeaTac- though airlines can adaopt by tankering. 5 refineries feed 325kbpd into the line. Hard to replace that capacity w/trucks.

49 states are seeing higher diesel prices today versus one year ago. Here are the states where they're up the most:
WA +56c/gal
OR +47c/gal
OK +46c/gal
MN +41c/gal
IA +40c/gal
UT +39c/gal
AK +38c/gal
WI +37c/gal
NJ +37c/gal
IL +35c/gal

Sources say Nigeria's Dangote refinery has delayed its CDU maintenance to end-January

While US total refinery utilization hit 90.0% last week, PADD 5 (West Coast) sees a 2.6% drop to just 70.9% reflecting the $PSX LA refinery shutdown (which has not been factored in) and myriad refinery issues this year.

Refinery maintenance season is quickly wrapping up with EIA reporting utilization has returned to 90.0% for the first time since early October. Gross inputs 16.343MMbpd.

PADD 2 refinery utilization surged- numbers suggest BP's Whiting refinery fully back online. Utiliz now 95.3% up from 88.6%

EIA, week ending 11/14
Crude oil: -3.4M
Domestic prod: 13.834MMbpd
Cushing: -0.7M
Gasoline: +2.3M
Mogas supplied: 8.528MMbpd
Distillates: +0.2M
Refiner utilz: 90.0%
Ref inputs: 16.343MMbpd
Total exports: 11.146MMbpd
#oil #eia #gas

Gas prices starting to inch up in Washington, Oregon, and into British Columbia due to the Olympic pipeline being shut. Impacts could be 10-20c/gal (4-8c/L) depending on how long the majority of the line is shut.

Going up! The national average price of gasoline is now up 13c/gal from a month ago- $3.11/gal today. That's 5.4 cents higher than a year ago. 18 states have lower prices than a year ago while 32 have higher prices.

Don’t look at diesel- ouch!

Awesome! Glad to hear you filled up in time!

It’s typical for diesel to start drifting higher as heating oil demand picks up but this year due to refinery issues and attacks on Russia’s infrastructure as well as refinery maintenance we’ve seen diesel surge

That was a routine price cycle- (I had mentioned yesterday). These big jumps happen every 1 1/2 to 2 weeks in the fall.

Forget $2 gas, diesel is quietly surging towards $4/gal, with Indiana just becoming the 7th state to reach that mark. Next states that will see $4:
Nevada ($3.98)
Michigan ($3.96)
Maine ($3.96)
Illinois ($3.93)
New York ($3.90)

INFLATION WATCH: Average diesel prices have jumped >20c/gal over the last month in 15 states, with 46 states seeing increases. Biggest jumps:
MI +36c/gal
WI +34c
OK +33c
MN +28c
IA +28c
IL +27c
NE +27c
OH +26c
IN +25c
NJ +24c

Got a Q about GasBuddy's survey not aligning with someone elses "travel forecast". Ours is an actual survey. Theirs is a "unique methodology" (with no transparency). With consumer sentiment indexes & various pulses on the economy, I believe our survey aligns with better reality.

Loyalty programs slowing down? Of those hitting the road for Thanksgiving this year, 60% plan to use a loyalty program at their stops, down from 68% last year.

What changed? We expect gas prices to be the same this Thanksgiving as a year ago, BUT 16% cited last year's gas prices being a top reason not to travel, compared to 8% this year.

A year ago saw 29 states with average #gasprices below $3 per gallon. Today finds 28 states below $3 per gallon, with a 29th less than a penny away.

Gas prices on Thanksgiving 2022: $3.68/gal, 54% said gas prices were not impacting their travel, 73% not crossing a state line
Gas prices projected this Thanksgiving: $3.02/gal, 74% say gas prices not impacting their travel, 44% not crossing a state line

GasBuddy Thanksgiving Survey indicate holiday habits shifting homeward: 73% of non-travelers say they’re staying put because family is coming to them or they're hosting.

Of Americans travel plans for Thanksgiving:
➡️56% will cross at least one state line- considered danger zones for potential wild swings in gas prices.
➡️66% expect to drive more than 100 miles.
➡️Most plan to leave early to mid-morning on Wednesday, November 26.