Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞

The irony is that Germany has much more to lose from not realising what is happening. The China shock is much more about Germany than any other European economy. Is it blindness or vested interest of a few large German companies?

Brussels ramps up China de-risking while France and Germany pull further apart Raids, probes and new screening rules collide with widening splits between Paris and Berlin over how tough to be on Beijing.

Views for @scmpnews.bsky.social : It is no longer a ‘Franco-German axis’, certainly not on China, and it has not been for a while.

www.scmp.com/news/china/a...

China promises fiscal boost next year, recognises 'prominent' imbalance Chinese leaders promised on Thursday to maintain a "proactive" fiscal policy next year that would stimulate both consumption and investment to maintain high economic growth, which analysts expect Beij...

Thoughts for @reuters.com : "They know they cannot continue to pile up $1 trillion in trade surpluses each year without anybody complaining."

www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

Its export-driven model is going to contribute around 40% of global growth in 2025. I don't think it has ever been higher, and China is supposedly growing, so there is no reason for such a big contribution to external demand.

China urges trade partners against tariffs as record surplus stirs tensions China's Premier Li Qiang urged trading partners to reject rising protectionism, a day after the world's second-largest economy posted a record $1 trillion trade surplus driven by a rush of exports to ...

Thoughts for @reuters.com : #China is not taking any action, and I think has no intention to do so. I don't see China caring about all of these (visiting) officials whatsoever.

www.reuters.com/business/fin...

It’s not only political – it’s economic, because the US and Europe have fallen behind in industrial production, and they very much worry about dependence on China, especially on military-industrial front. So, this has both economic implications in terms of moving up the ladder and dominating R&D.

Are US, EU and Japan banking on defence spending for an economic boost? As advanced economies ramp up military expenditures, they have multiple goals - including a reduced reliance on China in defence supply chains.

Broader economic ambitions, rather than purely political considerations, were shaping defence spending in the West.

www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

Are US, EU and Japan banking on defence spending for an economic boost? As advanced economies ramp up military expenditures, they have multiple goals - including a reduced reliance on China in defence supply chains.

Views for SCMP on #Europe: So I would say I wouldn’t be too optimistic, to be frank. The bloc’s heavy dependence on foreign suppliers for critical materials and technology used in the defence industry, which limited the potential for military spending to help revive domestic manufacturing.

YouTube video by Negocios TV "La situación entre Japón y China está al límite: Trump no ha dicho nada y crea aún más tensión"

Mi entrevista para @negociostv.bsky.social sobre la economía #americana: más resiliencia de lo esperada gracias al sector privado pero con una inflación que no acaba de bajar y perdida de poder negociación con China.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzaQ...

Macron's Beijing visit shows how Europe is cornered | Euractiv Without true autonomy from American shields, Europe remains a perpetual supplicant, unable to counter either Washington or Beijing effectively

My Op-Ed for @euractiv.com : "#Macron's #Beijing visit shows how Europe is cornered".

www.euractiv.com/opinion/macr...

My article published by Portulans Institute: " #China's Critical #Technology Surge: A Contested Ascent".
portulansinstitute.org/wp-content/u...

Why Japan's economic woes spark global market concern – DW – 12/08/2025 Japan's PM Sanae Takaichi wants to spend big to boost sluggish growth, despite the country's already huge debt load. With bond yields already rising, a sudden spike could shock the financial world wel...

Some thoughts for @DW news: "#Japan's #bond market is teetering on the edge of a self-inflicted wound. Tokyo's reckless spending spree is like watching a gambler double down on a losing hand."

www.dw.com/en/why-japan...

#RBA Monitor: A hawkish pause to be expected
aliciagarciaherrero.substack.com/p/rba-monito...

¿Ha conseguido Xi Jinping que Trump ceda sobre Taiwán? - El Grand Continent Durante una inusual llamada solicitada por Xi Jinping —la primera de un líder chino desde el 11 de septiembre de 2001—, este pidió a Donald Trump que trabajaran «conjuntamente para preservar los logro...

Mis comentarios para “El Grand Continent” sobre como Trump y Xi parecen estar negociando la baza más importante: Taiwan.

legrandcontinent.eu/es/2025/11/2...

Finally, I also covered #China's real estate problem, which is not going away. This is another good reason for China to remain obsessed with manufacturing. The real estate shock is still going through the economy.

I also discussed the #2026 outlook for #Asia, especially how little space Asian central banks have to cut further, due to weak currencies (generally too weak).

YouTube video by Bloomberg Television Why Vanke Has Everyone Worried About China’s Property Sector | Insight with Haslinda Amin 11/27/2025

Here is the full video (minute 54) of my @bloomberg.com interview today. I offered my take as to why #Trump is pushing #Takaichi under the bus and what it means for #Taiwan.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFwn...

China Uses Japan Spat to Pressure World to Pick Sides on Taiwan In the roughly three weeks since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi commented on a possible Taiwan contingency in parliament, China has unleashed economic reprisals, nationalist barbs and a diplom...

Views for @bloomberg.com: “It only needs silence, because silence for #China means acquiescence, acceptance. And nobody’s saying this is outrageous. So this is why for China this is already a big win.”

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US-China: a fragile truce, divergent accounts and a Thanksgiving test Washington pushes a rare earth timeline Beijing never acknowledged, underscoring how far apart the two sides still appear to be.

Views for SCMP: “ #China has done this before. Beijing’s readout for the Busan summit was clear that they were only referring to additional #export controls on five more rare earths imposed in October and the extra territoriality, but not the seven initial ones”.

www.scmp.com/news/china/a...

En un día como hoy, viendo lo que EE.UU. está haciendo con Ucrania, un país que ha defendido su soberanía y los valores democráticos que EE.UU. hasta hace poco abanderaba, para mí este país ha dejado de ser el líder del mundo libre y perdido todo mi respeto. Solo espero que la historia sea cruel.

My TV interview with @Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق.

now.asharq.com/clips/178862...

實時更新：輝達致力於與美國和中國進行接觸 輝達首席財務長表示，該公司將繼續與美國和中國政府進行接洽。美國總統川普表示，他正在考慮降低對印度和瑞士的關稅；川普與烏茲別克斯坦達成貿易協議；白宮稱目前沒有向中國出售輝達Blackwell晶片的計劃。

為華爾街日報提供的觀點：美國總統 #川普 與 #中國 領導人習近平達成的協議是「一份暗藏風險的休戰協議」，而不是一份貿易協議。中國同意恢復進口美國大豆算不上什麼突破。而且，儘管中國取消了對稀土的新出口管制，但4月份宣布的限制措施仍然有效。川普未能在 #稀土 元素問題上讓時鐘倒轉，這讓中國在未來的爭端中掌握了一個強有力的戰略籌碼。有鑑於此，市場反應謹慎是合理的。美國獲得的收益微乎其微……而且是以暴露其對中國的經濟依賴為代價的。

cn.wsj.com/articles/%E7...

Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia set to launch US$1 billion fund, Paul Chan says A ‘major Saudi development company’ will host a roadshow in Hong Kong next month to seek strategic partners, financial secretary says.

#HK - and not #NY is the financial center chosen by #Saudi for a USD1b fund, right after #NBS official visit to the #US. So, #Saudi gets advanced chips from #Trump (export licenses approved) and money from #Asia through Hong Kong to diversify its economy. Not bad!

www.scmp.com/business/ban...

US removes 'reciprocal' tariffs on $1bn of Philippine agricultural products Finance minister describes move as 'win' for Southeast Asian nation's farmers

#Trump trying to solve the #US affordability problem with targeted lower tariffs to friends: #Philippines as beneficiary, surely #Japan after #Takaichi's statement on #Taiwan. Where is the #EU on this?

asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...

#24: La partida que mueve el mundo: el dominio chino de las tierras raras

Para los que estáis interesados en como China domina el mercado de tierras raras (y muchos otros minerales críticos), os comparto este podcast con la Fundación Consejo España China.
open.spotify.com/episode/6cG7...

My opinions for Reuters: "A diplomatic rift with China could have a bigger effect on Japan than just a dent in its tourism sector. What is crucial is Japan's stubborn dependence on rare earth metals, which has decreased very marginally since Japan tried to diversify."
www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

#Xi just announced he is going to miss one more #G20 meeting (same as Trump and Putin). The world is increasingly bi-polar (#G2) with #Russia hiding behind #China (and the #US). Crazy world

The odd currency in #Asia this year is the #NTD. An incendiary article by @TheEconomist arguing that the NTD is undervalued (I cannot agree more!) and #Taiwan's central bank response (#CBC) denying it. NTD appreciated 2% but went back to square one (CBC must have been busy since...)

China and US Yet to Agree Rare-Earth Deal Weeks After Talks The US and China are still negotiating over the key details of how Beijing will free up sales of rare earths, according to a person familiar with the matter, weeks after a trade truce that Washington ...

Views for @bloomberg.com: “The deal is far from done. #China can use licenses as leverage and decide to grant or withdraw them and exert pressure any time.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...