Institute for the Study of War

4/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar120725

3/ Balloons from Belarusian airspace continue incursions into NATO airspace in Lithuania.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole.

2/ Russian forces are conducting a battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign against Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) in northern Kharkiv Oblast, likely to disrupt Ukrainian logistics to eventually facilitate battlefield gains.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7, 2025: The Kremlin positively reacted to the recently released US National Security Strategy (NSS). 🧵(1/4)

Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar120725

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

4/ India’s increased partnerships w/ RU are against the backdrop of RU’s growing reliance on N. Korea & the PRC to support the war.

UA advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area & near Novopavlivka & Oleksandrivka. RU marginally advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

3/ A February 2025 RU drone strike on Chornobyl rendered the protective structure unable to fulfill primary safety functions.

The Kremlin appears to be increasingly leaning on India to alleviate domestic labor shortages and is setting conditions for India to support drone production for the war.

2/ The US & UA negotiating delegations agreed that progress toward peace talks to end the war is dependent on RU’s readiness to demonstrate a good faith commitment to long term peace.

UA forces continue to hold positions within Pokrovsk & Myrnohrad, while RU forces complicate UA logistics there.

NEW: Russian forces launched 704 total missiles and drones against Ukraine overnight on December 5 to 6, heavily targeting railway and energy infrastructure across the country.

Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar120625

More Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/4)

The War Studies Program aims to educate standout undergraduate students about the theory, practice, organization, and control of war and the military. The program is the cornerstone of ISW’s education efforts.

Apply here: isw.pub/HWSPBlueSky

NEW | Former senior Assad regime officials are likely funding and equipping clandestine networks in Syria to conduct insurgent activity against the Syrian transitional government. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: Taiwanese President Lai announced the introduction of the largest special defense budget in Taiwanese history. The proposed budget would markedly improve Taiwanese capabilities and efforts to implement an asymmetric defense to deter a PRC invasion (🧵1/3).

Read more: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...

NEW: US and Ukrainian officials continued peace talks to end the war in Ukraine in Miami, Florida, on December 4 and 5.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Pokrovsk. Read the full assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar120525

More ⬇(1/3)

3/ Russian forces are attempting to completely deny Ukrainian tactical- and operational-level logistics to the Pokrovsk direction using drones to achieve effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI). isw.pub/UkrWar120525

2/ Available open-source information indicates that Russian forces have not encircled Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad as of December 5 as Russian forces continue efforts to complete the encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket. isw.pub/UkrWar120525

NEW: US and Ukrainian officials continued peace talks to end the war in Ukraine in Miami, Florida, on December 4 and 5.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Pokrovsk. Read the full assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar120525

More ⬇(1/3)

3/ The indigenously produced Taiwanese Hai Kun submarine faces continued political opposition despite conducting successful sea acceptance trials. Continued opposition may undermine the ability of the Taiwanese Navy to respond to a PRC invasion or blockade.

2/ The KMT and TPP are organizing opposition to the special defense budget, which could jeopardize Taiwanese national defense and international perceptions of Taiwanese resilience. The KMT has echoed CCP talking points framing the spending as provocative.

NEW: Taiwanese President Lai announced the introduction of the largest special defense budget in Taiwanese history. The proposed budget would markedly improve Taiwanese capabilities and efforts to implement an asymmetric defense to deter a PRC invasion (🧵1/3).

Read more: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...

NEW: President Putin reiterated his commitment to his original war aims from 2021 and 2022 and unwillingness to compromise – likely as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to shape the international information space during the ongoing. (1/6)

Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate12...

7/ The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy began an annual two-day military exercise on December 4 in which it displayed its “interception” capabilities, likely as part of an Iranian effort to deter the United States and its allies from seizing Iranian vessels.

6/ The spokesperson’s statement suggests that Turkey may be anticipating the SDF’s compliance with the March 10 agreement, which possibly indicates positive momentum in the integration process as the end-of-year integration deadline approaches.

5/ A spokesperson for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political party suggested that Turkey will no longer consider the SDF to be a “terrorist organization” if the SDF hands over key resources and infrastructure to the Syrian government as part of its integration into the Syrian state.

4/ The Iraqi federal government accused “outlaws” on Dec. 3 of committing the Nov. 26 drone attack on the Khor Mor Gas Field in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Iraqi federal government often uses the term “outlaws” to accuse Iranian-backed Iraqi militias of conducting attacks without implicating the militias.

3/ Iranian-backed Iraqi actors reportedly pressured the Iraqi federal government to reverse its decision to designate the Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah as terrorist organizations.

Iran Update, December 4, 2025 Former Iraqi Prime Minister and State of Law Coalition head Nouri al Maliki told the US that he would disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.

Iran Update, December 4, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate12...

Other Key Takeaways:

2/ Maliki would likely attempt to transform elements of the Iraqi security establishment, including the PMF, into a force that he could use to enhance his personal power as prime minister.

NEW: Former Iraqi Prime Minister and State of Law Coalition head Nouri al Maliki reportedly told the US via unidentified mediators that he would disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias if the US supports his bid to become prime minister. (1/7)

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar120425

6/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

5/ Russia appears to have launched a new cognitive warfare campaign aimed at spreading narratives about Russian preparations for an offensive on Chernihiv City against the backdrop of the ongoing peace negotiations.