Institute for the Study of War

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar100525

5/Russia is likely leveraging its close relations with Serbia and Republika Srpska to threaten to destabilize the Balkans and undermine European cohesion.

Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

4/ The pro-Russian Georgian Dream party secured widespread majorities in municipal elections in Georgia on October 4, sparking mass protests that Georgian Dream officials tried to blame on Ukraine.

3/ Russia launched its largest combined drone and missile strike against Lviv Oblast on the night of October 4 to 5 with 163 combined projectiles.

Other Key Takeaways 🧵 ⬇️

2/ The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear.

NEW: Russian President Putin continues attempts to deter the US from sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by linking improvements in the US-RU bilateral relationship to concessions from the US on the war in Ukraine. (1/5)

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Oct. 5, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar100525

NEW: Leaked documents detail Russian plans to equip and train a PLA airborne battalion, which could play a significant role in a PRC invasion of Taiwan. The documents illustrate how Russia is supporting PLA modernization efforts. (🧵1/5)
More: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW: German officials reported more unidentified drone sightings near airports and military facilities.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar100425

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵

Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.

Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar100425

Ukraine continues to conduct long-range strikes against Russian oil refineries, exacerbating ongoing gasoline shortages in Russia and occupied Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine that resulted in civilian casualties and damaged critical energy infrastructure.

Russia continues to challenge and probe NATO states’ capabilities, possibly as part of preparations for a potential future Russia-NATO war.

NEW: German officials reported more unidentified drone sightings near airports and military facilities.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar100425

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵

Applications are open to join our spring 2026 intern cohort across our research, geospatial, cognitive warfare, & comms teams. ISW views interns as a vital component of our work. ISW has worked w/ interns to draft, edit, & publish research under analysts' mentorship.

Apply: understandingwar.org...

5/ North Korean Vice Foreign Affairs Minister Kim Son Gyong rejected denuclearization at the UN General Assembly. Pyongyang may be emboldened since the PRC and Russia have reduced their opposition to the North Korean nuclear program.

4/ Taiwanese Foreign Affairs Minister Lin Chia-lung made an unprecedented visit to New York for the UN General Assembly. The PRC criticized the visit as part of its long-standing effort to isolate Taiwan diplomatically.

3/ The PRC has continued to co-opt international institutions as forums to promote itself as a responsible global leader and articulate its vision for a PRC-centric world order. The effort is meant to erode US influence globally.

2/ Xi Jinping has reportedly urged US President Donald Trump to revise US policy on Taiwan and specify that the United States opposes Taiwanese independence. The PRC is likely emboldened following previous US concessions regarding Taiwan.

NEW: Leaked documents detail Russian plans to equip and train a PLA airborne battalion, which could play a significant role in a PRC invasion of Taiwan. The documents illustrate how Russia is supporting PLA modernization efforts. (🧵1/5)
More: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

4/ Norway & Ukraine’s European partners opened the largest training center for Ukrainian military personnel in Poland on Oct. 1.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk & Velykomykhailivka, & RU forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Read the report: isw.pub/UkrWar100325

3/ Russia continues to escalate its destabilization efforts against Europe as European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating in their airspace.

The Kremlin continues efforts to undermine Western-brokered peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, likely to divide and distract Europe.

2/ RU forces likely stockpiled ballistic and cruise missiles throughout September 2025 to conduct a few large scale drone and missile strikes on select days.

RU forces are likely leveraging recent upgrades to RU ballistic missiles to improve their ability to penetrate UA air defense systems.

NEW: Russian forces conducted a large, combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of Oct. 2-3, increasingly leveraging missiles in large but infrequent strike packages.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Oct. 3, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar100325

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/4)

3/ Yemeni security forces seized a vessel that was transporting equipment, including manufacturing equipment, surveillance gear, and raw materials, to the Houthis on October 2. The Houthis could have used the equipment to strengthen their drone capabilities.

2/ Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are continuing to try to detract voter support from their political opponents ahead of the November 2025 Iraqi parliamentary elections.

NEW: A Syrian militia sympathetic to the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance claimed an attack on a US base in northeastern Syria on Oct. 2. This attack marks the first time the militia has claimed to attack US forces.

Iran Update, Oct. 3, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

More Key Takeaways ⬇️(1/3)

Adversary Entente Task Force Update, October 3, 2025 Leaked documents reveal Russian plans to train a PLA airborne unit, a move that could shape a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

3/ The reimposition of UN and EU sanctions against Iran will further isolate Iran politically, militarily, and economically on the world stage and likely push it closer to the Adversary Entente.

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2/ Russia has continued to pursue energy deals with the PRC and Iran in order to bolster its economy and sustain its war against Ukraine. The agreements include Russian support to the Iranian civilian nuclear program.

NEW: Leaked documents detail Russian plans to equip and train a PLA airborne battalion, which could play a significant role in a PRC invasion of Taiwan. The documents illustrate how Russia can support PLA modernization efforts.

Read the full update: isw.pub/AdversaryEnt...

The Russian army's advance in Ukraine slowed again in September, especially in the Donetsk region, according to an
AFP analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). barrons.com/news/russia-...