Institute for the Study of War

NEW: The United States and Europe are finalizing security and economic guarantees with Ukraine that aim to deter future Russian aggression and rebuild Ukraine’s post-war economy.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar012626

Other Key Takeaways: ⬇️🧵(1/6)

NEW: The Iraqi Shia Coordination Framework selected State of Law Coalition head and former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki as prime minister designate on January 24, even though at least four framework members opposed Maliki’s nomination. (1/8)

Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...

Iran Update, January 26, 2026 The Iraqi Shia Coordination Framework selected former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki as prime minister designate.

Read CTP-ISW's latest Iran Update here: isw.pub/IranUpdate01... (8/8)

Maliki has previously also proven his willingness to work with Iranian-backed Iraqi actors and militias to preserve his personal power, especially after the United States withdrew from Iraq in 2011. (7/8)

Maliki pursued sectarian and authoritarian policies while in office that led to the rise of ISIS in Iraq. (6/8)

An Iraqi political source told AFP on January 26 that the United States remembers Maliki’s previous terms “in a negative light,” which underscores Maliki’s historic role in driving instability in Iraq. (5/8)

The spokesperson of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition stated on January 25 that the coalition supports Maliki’s nomination. Maliki may have offered Sudani spoils in the new government to persuade Sudani to forgo the premiership. (4/8)

Iraqi Sunni political parties are also divided over Maliki’s nomination. Some of the Sunni parties that oppose Maliki could join an effort to block the presidential election. (3/8)

These dissenting framework members and their parties could attempt to block the Iraqi presidential election in order to try to delay or prevent Maliki from becoming prime minister. (2/8)

NEW: The Iraqi Shia Coordination Framework selected State of Law Coalition head and former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki as prime minister designate on January 24, even though at least four framework members opposed Maliki’s nomination. (1/8)

Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...

6/ Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, in the Dobropillya tactical area, and near Slovyansk.

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar012626

5/ Russia’s domestic populace is increasingly bearing the economic costs of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

4/ Russian forces are increasingly using Starlink satellite systems to extend the range of BM-35 strike drones to conduct mid-range strikes against the Ukrainian rear.

3/ The Kremlin is reviving its use of nuclear arms control rhetoric to push the United States to make concessions on Ukraine in return for normalizing US-Russian relations.

2/ The Kremlin continues to exploit the lack of clarity about the outcome of the August 2025 US-Russian Alaska summit to falsely portray Ukraine — not Russia — as the unwilling negotiating partner.

NEW: The United States and Europe are finalizing security and economic guarantees with Ukraine that aim to deter future Russian aggression and rebuild Ukraine’s post-war economy.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar012626

Other Key Takeaways: ⬇️🧵(1/6)

NEW: Kremlin officials continue to reiterate Russia's commitment to its original war aims and reject Western security guarantees for Ukraine.

Read the full Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar012526

More Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/4)

NEW: Some Iranian officials have continued to leak damning information about the regime’s brutal crackdown to Western media, which indicates that some regime personnel may oppose the regime’s crackdown. (1/3)

Read the Iran Update, January 25, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...

3/ The extension of the Syrian government-Syrian Democratic Forces ceasefire is enabling the government to deliver humanitarian aid to SDF-controlled areas in northern Syria. The Syrian army established two humanitarian corridors in Kobani and Hasakah City.

2/ The Iranian regime hasn't restored international internet access, & there continues to be a debate w/in the regime about it, primarily btwn factions that think restoring internet could cause protest resumption versus those that think the economic toll of the shutdown could cause internal unrest.

NEW: Some Iranian officials have continued to leak damning information about the regime’s brutal crackdown to Western media, which indicates that some regime personnel may oppose the regime’s crackdown. (1/3)

Read the Iran Update, January 25, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...

4/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and near Novopavlivka.

Read the full update here: isw.pub/UkrWar012526

3/ RU continues to intensify recruitment efforts for the RU Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) that may also staff the conventional RU ground forces.

UA Defense Minister Dmitry Mykhailo Fedorov appointed Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov as a Ministry of Defense (MoD) advisor on defense technology on Jan. 25.

2/ Kremlin Spokesman Peskov made a statement suggesting that the Kremlin is using its participation in ongoing negotiations with the United States to stave off a significant increase in US pressure against Russia that could impede its war effort.

NEW: Kremlin officials continue to reiterate Russia's commitment to its original war aims and reject Western security guarantees for Ukraine.

Read the full Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar012526

More Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/4)

Read CTP-ISW's latest update about developments in Syria and Iran here: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...

7/ Syrian government forces have surrounded SDF fighters in Kobani since January 19, likely as the first part of a multi-stage operation to reduce SDF forces there.

6/ The Syrian army announced on January 24 that it will open humanitarian corridors in “the coming hours,” but did not specify if this includes a corridor in Kobani.

5/ Kurdish and international organizations are pushing the Syrian government to establish a humanitarian corridor in Kobani, Aleppo Province, as Syrian forces surround the city.

4/ Both the SDF and Syrian government forces continued to prepare for a possible lapse in the ceasefire on January 24 before the parties announced the extension.