I think it's a big factor in Aston Villa's goals from outside the box this season
When I watched back their goals from distance, almost all included a blocked sightline & a delayed goalkeeper reaction
I broke them down in the thread below if you want to see more details!
bsky.app/profile/tomh...
These were my results when I used StatsBomb open data to study the impact of players being positioned directly in-between a shot and the goalkeeper (so possibly blocking the view)
Pressuring the shot reduced the xG, but possibly blocking the view, without pressuring, increased goal probability
Great piece Conor! The graphic showing a correlation between quantity of attempts and over-performance is an excellent insight
Interesting that you mentioned defenders obscuring their keeper's line of sight as well- I've found that this isn't considered enough in xG models
🔹Conclusion
1️⃣ Berterame has adapted to different roles- he may be used as a wide attacker as well as the 9
2️⃣ He should provide an upgrade on Suárez's box poaching ability- without losing much of his linkup play
3️⃣ However there are concerns over his defensive work rate, creativity & runs in-behind
❗ Re-discovering his ability to time runs in-behind defenses could be key to Berterame maximising his goal production in Miami
👇 As pointed out by @shelatneel.bsky.social- Tadeo Allende’s movement (& finishing) was crucial for Inter Miami in the MLS playoffs
www.thetransferflow.com/p/can-lionel...
❔ Can he rediscover his movement behind defenses?
▫️ Domenec Torrent has implemented a patient build-up approach at Rayados- often leading to them attacking lower blocks
▫️ Berterame hasn’t received many through balls this season
👇 But, he was able to do this more frequently in the past (deep runs)
❓ Will his lack of pressing be an issue?
▫️ Defensive work rate is important to support Messi in the Inter Miami attack
▫️ Berterame hasn’t been particularly intense out of possession in recent seasons- although Monterrey don’t currently press much
▫️ Age factors may also have impacted his pressing
🔻 He's also a less creative forward than Luis Suárez
▫️ Whilst Berterame has been more effective at getting on the end of chances than Suárez, he offers much less creativity for teammates
▫️ Berterame was more creative in a 2nd striker role, but not at the level of Suárez
❗ However, Berterame will have to provide far more linkup passes if he's to replace the impact of Luis Suárez, and his connection with Messi
▫️ Whilst he isn’t often an outlet for long balls, due to the Monterrey style of play, Berterame has been pretty effective in the air
👇 Good number of linkup passes per game, finding a teammate after receiving back to goal
▫️ The change in Berterame’s role has particularly helped his decision making when shooting
▫️ Often a long-range shooter in the past, his xG per shot was below average for a Liga MX striker in 2022-23
🔺 In 2025-26, the Argentine has the 5th best xG per shot
👇 Now, Berterame has a much more specific striker profile
▫️ The focal point of the Rayados attack, he’s consistently finished chances from inside the box, connected attacks by receiving back to goal, and won aerial duels
🔹 An all-round forward transformed into a goal poacher
▫️ Berterame arrived in Liga MX as a wide attacker or second striker
👇 In 2022-23 he ranked at or above Liga MX average in all key striker concepts
🧵 Analysing the new Inter Miami striker | Germán Berterame
🔹 Style of play, strengths and weaknesses
🔹 His fit for Javier Mascherano’s side
🔹 Data and graphics from Twelve Football
👇👇👇
🔹 Conclusion
1️⃣ More runs into the box can improve Romero's xG, reduce his number of long-shots & develop his creativity by getting into cut-back positions, on the left-side of the box
2️⃣ He needs to shoot less often from range
3️⃣ Romero can improve his shot efficiency by working on his technique
4️⃣ Reduce his number of blocked shots
👇 Another example below of a big set-up touch, large back-lift & a blocked shot
▫️ Romero shouldn't shoot from here anyway, he should get his head up & pass out wide, but the technique makes the defender's job easier
4️⃣ Reduce his number of blocked shots
👇 Romero also uses a large back-lift when shooting
▫️ An effective technique for creating powerful shots
❗ But, the time between the set-up touch & the shot is too long
❌ Defenders have time to read his decision & react, leading to many efforts being blocked
4️⃣ Reduce his number of blocked shots
▫️ Romero scored a few stunners from range at youth level, but his technique has proved unsuccessful in professional football, with less time and space
👇 He likes to take a large touch before striking the ball, giving him a bigger run-up
4️⃣ Reduce his number of blocked shots
❗ Nearly half of Romero's shot attempts have been blocked
▫️ This is another argument for Luka cutting-down his efforts from range, but there's also a technical adjustment to be worked on
3️⃣ Better decision making
❗ Romero shoots too often from distance
👇 His xG per shot is only 0.06 in 2025-26, amongst the worst ranked players in Liga MX, and his finishing from distance is a weakness
▫️ Romero's 4 goals have come from inside the box, he needs to cut down the shots from range
2️⃣ Get the most out of playing on his natural side
👇 Romero is not a particularly creative passer
📈 But he could improve his xA with better movement
👉 By making runs into the box from the left-half-space, Romero should receive possession more frequently in cut-back situations, on his stronger foot
1️⃣ More runs into the box
👇 It's important that Romero can penetrate defenses through his off-ball movement, given his lack of dribbling ability
▫️ With Paradela & Agustín Palavecino, Cruz Azul already have key, ball-to-feet, creators
❗ They lack off-ball runners, to receive the creative passes
1️⃣ More runs into the box
👍 Luka showed an ability to get into the box and shoot from higher xG locations during his first season in Liga MX
👎 With fewer box touches in 2025-26, his xG p90 has dropped from 0.26 to 0.12
▫️ The signing of José Paradela has also impacted Romero's positioning
▫️ Paradela, Cruz Azul's main creative hub, is more comfortable on the right side of the pitch- so plays as the right "10" in Larcamón's 3-4-2-1
👇 Romero has been shifted over to the left side, when he's received game time
🔹 The context
▫️ The 21-year-old hasn't impressed since Larcamón joined as head coach for the 2025-26 season
👇 Romero only stands-out as above league average for his out of possession work
🧵 Luka Romero | Aiding his individual development
🔹 Analyzing his first year in Liga MX
🔹 4 suggestions of areas to focus on, in order to improve Romero's output, within Nicolas Larcamón's system
🔹 Data & graphics from Twelve Football
👇👇👇
🔹 Conclusion
1️⃣ Chivas need to better defend central, direct attacks to reduce their xG per shot against
2️⃣ More protection for Romo, who struggled in an aggressive role
3️⃣ A better rest defense & more intensity in the counterpress
4️⃣ Reduce turnovers with more patience & individual development
🔹 A right-side weakness under pressure
▫️ Their right-center-back was another source of turnovers
👇 Both Campillo & Daniel Aguirre suffered when put under pressure & can develop individually
▫️ This clear weakness makes pre-match preparation easier for coaches looking to press the Chivas build-up
▫️ Luis Romo, a key part of their build-up, can improve his decision making
✅ Romo played more progressive passes, per game, than any other center-back during Apertura 25
❌ But his verticality had a clear drawback, the high rate of losses p90
🔹 More patience in-possession
▫️ Performance in defensive transition could be improved by cutting down the number of turnovers
👇 Their long ball % was above league average last season
❗ However, only 2 sides created fewer shots in direct attacks
👉 It's a high-risk strategy with low rewards
