Bobby Kogan

This is,,,, not correct.

BEFORE the revision, the jobs numbers were inconsistent w/ the 1.2% avg growth we saw the first half of this year. It looked as though we had significantly higher job growth than our econ growth implied.

Now that the jobs numbers have been revised down, they’re consistent.

graph showing exactly what the tweet said

From @ernietedeschi.bsky.social over on the bad site: “BLS's first-release estimates of nonfarm payroll employment have gotten more, not less, accurate over time.”

A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth Satellite data hints at the scale of their deception

Link to article: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

free countries have gdp data line up well. partly free countries are only mediocre. not free countries are bad.

Here’s a graph from the Economist showing GDP data from official government sources versus private estimates.

Free countries, like the US, don’t manipulate econ data. Less free countries do. Trump is seeking to break that for short-term PR.

(Yes I know GDP is BEA and not BLS.)

When I first started working at the Senate Budget Committee, Bill was chief economist on the Republican staff, under Jeff Sessions. He spent 15 years at Heritage and 3 years at Mercatus.

Bill is a Republican for life. His unequivocally raising the alarm speaks to the badness of today’s firing.

The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau. For a full statement opposing this move, read:

Trump’s first BLS Commissioner, Bill Beach, calls today’s firing groundless and dangerous.
www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

so lemme get this straight, the president who tried to change the election results after he lost also fired the economics data person after a bad jobs report and forced government museums to rewrite history for him? folks, we might have a fascist president.

this is pretty in keeping for a president who tried to change the election results when he lost

I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today

trump post I was just informed that our Country's "Jobs Numbers" are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala's chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records - No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can't be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarter said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under "TRUMP" despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting "Kamala" elected - How did that work out? Jerome "Too Late" Powell should also be put "out to pasture." Thank you for your attention to this matter!

very very bad

Not that it matters, but Trump is actually the only president to have bipartisan votes to impeach in the House and bipartisan votes to convict in the Senate.

What actually matters is the president is pressuring the government to rewrite history for him, which is fundamentally fascistic.

Chris Smalls Released from Israeli Custody Early Thursday morning, the Freedom Flotilla Coalition announced that Amazon Labor Union founder Chris Smalls had been released from Israeli prison.

BREAKING: Chris Smalls has been released from Israeli detention & is returning to the United States

paydayreport.com/chris-smalls...

Amazon Union Leader Chris Smalls Detained & Beaten by IDF, But US Media Ignores It This week, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) boarded the Handala, a ship associated with the Flotilla Freedom Coalition, that was attempting to reach Gaza with supplies for starving Palestinians. The ID...

Despite Smalls being profiled by every major US publications, no major US outlet has written anything about his beating or detention.

Our labor publications look at why paydayreport.com/amazon-union...

2027, most things are on. new stuff hurts the poor helps everyone else, helping the richest the most. overall stuff helps rich more than anyone else.

2029, many new things expiring. poor meaningfully worse off. little bits of remaining new stuff help the rich the most. overall helps the rich the most and actually hurts the poor even given extension of expiring things.

2031, many new things expiring. poor meaningfully worse off. little bits of remaining new stuff help the rich the most. overall helps the rich the most.

2033, many new things expiring. poor meaningfully worse off. little bits of remaining new stuff help the rich the most. overall helps the rich the most and actually hurts the poor even given extension of expiring things.

Here's 2027, 2029, 2031, and 2033 all next to each other. Note that when significant portions of the new things expire, all we're left with is the poorest Americans significantly worse off with a small gain still for the richest Americans.

helps the rich the most. new parts hurt the poor. 2027

Final *tax portion only* analysis of the "big beautiful bill" is out!

Yellow shows net tax effect. Blue shows just new provisions (what people FEEL). Orange shows extension of expiring provisions.

Top 0.1% get more than the bottom half combined.

Poor people end up worse off than status quo.

Yes, if they were cooking the books, they would not have released data that shows “core” GDP at just 1.2% and consumers pulling back on their spending. Also the people who work for BEA are professionals and would be leaking if the data were being manipulated.

Yes, if they were cooking the books, they would not have released data that shows “core” GDP at just 1.2%. Also the people who work for BEA are professionals and would be leaking if the data were being manipulated.

the right are quite literally doing the meme rn about the gdp report

Real PFDP is 0.5% below CBO's expectations.

The real final sales to private domestic purchases version of this graph, which many people call "core GDP," is significantly worse looking.

It averaged 1.6% growth over the last two quarters, but the wedge between expected growth and actual growth is not a pretty picture.

Real GDP has come in below projections.

Real GDP at 3%, weak given last quarter, for an average of 1.2% over the last two quarters. The size of the economy under Trump has underperformed projections made before he took office.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers comes in at just 1.2% after being 1.9% last quarter.

Liz Essley Whyte @l_e_whyte •13m NEW The Trump administration has put a halt on ALL new research grants flowing from the National Institutes of Health (Billions of $$), setting up a battle with lawmakers

This is an illegal deferral under the Impoundment Control Act.

It will also lead to deaths that could have otherwise been prevented with cures that would otherwise have been invented.

I'm writing an piece on pocket rescissions - Trump's new upcoming illegal attempt to impound, ironically via the Impoundment Control Act

Vought claims he found a way to legally stop spending & run out the clock on funds, after which the money disappears (It's illegal)

Paper will be out by the 5th

The Implementation Timeline of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act An overview of when the cuts to basic needs programs such as Medicaid, Medicare, SNAP, and student loans and other provisions in the Republicans’ OBBBA go into effect.

Tons of my colleagues at @americanprogress.bsky.social undertook the Herculean task of creating a timeline for when various parts of the "big beautiful bill" begin and when various temporary provisions end. You can read it here: www.americanprogress.org/article/the-...

follow @emineirmakyucel.bsky.social for more great reporting

A formal rescissions request starts a 45-day clock in which the executive branch is allowed to withhold the cash in question they asked to claw back. But if the request came in 45 days before the new fiscal year is set to begin on Oct. 1, Vought contends, the White House could withhold the money for that timeframe, regardless of whether Congress takes action on the package, and then claim that the funding is expired with the end of the fiscal year. "Normally Congress needs to say yes, unless you ask too late at the end of the year?" Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress, asked sarcastically, summarizing the logic of pocket rescissions. "Like, give me a fucking break. It's obviously illegal."

can’t believe they printed this 😭

anyway, this whole article is superb and does a great job explaining “pocket rescissions,” which is an upcoming illegal and unconstitutional attempt by the trump administration to impound funds over the objections of congress
talkingpointsmemo.com/news/the-tru...

Immigration agents told a teenage US citizen: ‘You’ve got no rights.’ He secretly recorded his brutal arrest Video from Kenny Laynez-Ambrosio, 18, puts fresh scrutiny on the harsh tactics used to reach the Trump administration’s ambitious enforcement targets

“You’ve got no rights.”

bsky.app/profile/bbko...

REPORTER: Would you also direct agencies to study the impact [tariffs] would have on prices in the US?

TRUMP: No. There's nothing to study. There’s nothing to study. It's gonna go well.

To reporters following me: a “pocket rescission” is not a rescission. No law will have been passed paring back budgetary resources.

It’s an impoundment, preventing budget authority from being obligated — even if Congress votes against the rescissions package. And it’s illegal.

how you come off matters, and unfortunately it matters significantly more than the substance of what you’re saying.

that’s not a fun thing to admit, but if you’re in the business of actually trying to effect real change, optics matter.