Jonathan Tonkin

Extreme weather is transforming the world’s rivers. We need new ways to protect them Rivers support billions of people but are among the least protected parts of nature. A major review shows what needs to be done as climate change accelerates.

When extreme events happen together or in sequence, their impacts can be catastrophic for people and river biodiversity. Whether that’s a flood following a drought, a drought and heatwave operating in unison, or a flood falling on saturated ground, the impacts of these compound events can multiply.

Netflix Backs Out of Bid for Warner Bros., Paving Way for an Ellison Takeover

The richest man owns X.

The second and third richest men control Google.

The fourth richest man owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

The fifth richest man owns The Washington Post.

And now the sixth richest could soon take over both Paramount and Warner Bros.

See the problem here?

Extreme events and river biodiversity under climate change - Nature Reviews Biodiversity Extreme events — such as floods, droughts and heatwaves — are escalating in frequency, magnitude and duration. This Review discusses the implications of these global changes for biodiversity in rivers...

Rivers aren’t just warming: they’re being reshaped by extreme events
Our new paper in @natrevbiodiv.nature.com shows how floods, droughts & heatwaves are pushing ecosystems past their limits, with recovery no longer guaranteed
We can build resilience, but it requires a shift in how we manage rivers

Extreme weather is transforming the world’s rivers. We need new ways to protect them Rivers support billions of people but are among the least protected parts of nature. A major review shows what needs to be done as climate change accelerates.

A piece we wrote for The Conversation that associated with our recent paper "Extreme events and river biodiversity
under climate change" in Nature Reviews Biodiversity @jdtonkin.bsky.social @tdatry.bsky.social and others

Read-only link: rdcu.be/e4Dkv

doi.org/10.64628/AA....

MDPI may be utter trash, but at least they’re world class at spamming you on a daily basis asking you to lead a special issue.

This 👇👇👇
And read the full thread.

Biodiversity on the Brink: Ecological Rhythms & Human Urgency - Jonathan Tonkin | Rapid Response #20 Biodiversity underpins life on Earth as we know it—ecologist Jonthan Tonkin lays it all out, including his research on freshwater biodiversity and climate extremes.

Or check out the Substack post here: www.realitystudies.co/p/jonathan-t...

Biodiversity on the Brink: Ecological Rhythms & Human Urgency - Jonathan Tonkin | Rapid Response #20 Biodiversity underpins life on Earth as we know it—ecologist Jonthan Tonkin lays it all out, including his research on freshwater biodiversity and climate extremes.

I had the chance to join @jessedamiani.bsky.social for a Substack Live conversation last week. We covered a lot of ground — from ecological rhythms to extreme events. We talked rivers, a bit about my back story, and even the importance of finding joy.

YouTube link: youtu.be/sTv7L4xfeVY?...

Thanks for sharing, Alex!

Footnotes from the Margins

I love footnotes, so I'm sharing my favs

@jdtonkin.bsky.social writes a much-needed piece on disagreement. Sharing a lovely abstract by @ecoevoevoeco.bsky.social & @bio-diverse.bsky.social showing how disagreement -> agreement

predirections.substack.com/p/disagree-w...

Extreme events and river biodiversity under climate change Nature Reviews Biodiversity, Published online: 19 February 2026; doi:10.1038/s44358-026-00131-7Extreme events — such as floods, droughts and heatwaves — are escalating in frequency, magnitude and duration. This Review discusses the implications of these global changes for biodiversity in rivers, across population, community and ecosystem scales.

New online! Extreme events and river biodiversity under climate change

Read-only link: rdcu.be/e4Dkv
Press release: www.canterbury.ac.nz/news-and-eve...

Grateful for an excellent team of co-authors: @oldenfish.bsky.social, @tdatry.bsky.social, Tadeu Siqueira, Julian Merder, Julia Talbot-Jones, and LeRoy Poff.

Extreme events and river biodiversity under climate change - Nature Reviews Biodiversity Extreme events — such as floods, droughts and heatwaves — are escalating in frequency, magnitude and duration. This Review discusses the implications of these global changes for biodiversity in rivers...

Rivers aren’t just warming: they’re being reshaped by extreme events
Our new paper in @natrevbiodiv.nature.com shows how floods, droughts & heatwaves are pushing ecosystems past their limits, with recovery no longer guaranteed
We can build resilience, but it requires a shift in how we manage rivers

Really happy to see this paper led by awesome former PhD student Holly Harris out in Ecology.
If we simplify and channelise braided rivers, we begin to cut out key habitats, which means species like banded dotterels will no longer be able to reside there. Simple as that!

Braided rivers look chaotic, but their food webs tell a different story.
Using stable isotopes, we found that fish, birds, and spiders connect resources across huge spatial scales — revealing hidden structures that help stabilise these dynamic ecosystems.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Thanks! :)

Really happy to see this paper led by awesome former PhD student Holly Harris out in Ecology.
If we simplify and channelise braided rivers, we begin to cut out key habitats, which means species like banded dotterels will no longer be able to reside there. Simple as that!

Braided rivers look chaotic, but their food webs tell a different story.
Using stable isotopes, we found that fish, birds, and spiders connect resources across huge spatial scales — revealing hidden structures that help stabilise these dynamic ecosystems.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Bending the curve is possible Let's not forget great things are possible! A fishing ban halts seven decades of biodiversity decline in the Yangtze River.

Bending the curve is possible!
In 2021, the Chinese Government implemented a ten-year ban on all commercial fishing in Yangtze River basin. And in just a few years, it has halted biodiversity loss in this important river that provides so much to the Chinese people.

Ambitious political decisions made for people and the environment can pay off. When we make space for recovery, ecosystems respond. The Yangtze’s rapid recovery offers an important message: recovery of ecosystems is possible.

Dive in for more 👇👇

predirections.substack.com/p/bending-th...

The ban has seen a more than doubling of overall fish biomass and a modest increase in species richness (the number of species found in each location).

Bending the curve is possible Let's not forget great things are possible! A fishing ban halts seven decades of biodiversity decline in the Yangtze River.

Bending the curve is possible!
In 2021, the Chinese Government implemented a ten-year ban on all commercial fishing in Yangtze River basin. And in just a few years, it has halted biodiversity loss in this important river that provides so much to the Chinese people.

Good environmental news can happen!

When will it end?

Man dies as flooding triggers Ōtorohanga State of Emergency A State of Emergency has been declared in the Ōtorohanga District after widespread flooding, heavy rain and slips hit the area overnight.

The North Island of NZ has been hammered by extreme rain events this year. Climate change MUST be a key election point this year.

Stop trying to control everything Nexus Notes #20 - Seven things for seven days

My weekly field log of seven signals across biodiversity, climate, water, and systems. I publish these shorter briefings between my long-form essays.

Why are Europe and the Arctic heating up faster than the rest of the world? As the planet continues to warm, not all regions are heating up at the same pace.  Over the last thirty years, the global average temperature has increased by around 0.26°C per decade. But in Europe a...

"Shifts in atmospheric circulation favour more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves in Europe (...) the number of heat stress days is increasing in Europe, with 2024 seeing the second-highest number on record."

climate.copernicus.eu/why-are-euro...