let’s do a mini-thread of things I’m noticing while I work on my overarching season pace recap for the Wizards — 🧵
In five of the Wizards’ last seven wins, Alex Sarr recorded the fastest individual postgame pace in a win. Khris Middleton was fastest in the other two games.
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio... and that’s April, last pace report of the season. After the WNBA draft settles I’ll be posting more trends about the team’s pace in general over the season. But for now, have this month’s numbers.
No pranks, just numbers and some injury information, here’s the Wizards’ March pace recap: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
You hear a lot of discussion about the Washington Wizards and wanting to push pace as a team. If you’re wondering about how each player affects the pace on a game by game basis, my graph and I are here to help:
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Some bedtime reading, February’s pace recap: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Angel Reese having a 20-20 game to beat an undefeated team in Unrivaled is truly amazing
As a fan, I’ve missed Daniel Gafford on the Wizards since he was traded last season. As a stats nerd, I started wondering if the Wizards miss him as much as I do, from a pace standpoint. Here are some numbers I pulled/compiled and conclusions I reached: public.flourish.studio/story/2818823/
Marvin Bagley III’s minutes and pace and the relationship between the two in his games as a Wizard this season: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
I’ll be looking back at those stats from last season before, and after, being traded to the Wizards, when I publish my long term proj tomorrow👀
You know why I especially like getting Marcus Smart on the Wizards? Last time I checked (yesterday), the Grizzlies have the fastest pace in the NBA. Wizards sit at fourth. Let’s GO
The very best of luck to JV in Sacramento! I was going to publish this with my bigger trade deadline project (coming tomorrow) but I decided to do it now.
Presenting a look at JV’s minutes, pace, and the relationship between them in his Wizards tenure: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Pelinka liked doing business with Tommy, who knows how he feels about Winger and Dawkins🤣
Lakers need a center, I’ve been telling my friends who are Lakers fans that I’d have liked to see Gaff there. I’d also like to see him back with the Wizards, honestly.
Since the Luka/AD trade dropped all I’ve been wondering is “how is this going to affect Gaff’s workload/production in Dallas?”
And here is the January pace recap heading into February. Jordan Poole and Justin Champagnie recorded the same average pace last month.
public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Last note: Worth mentioning that Gafford currently has an increased workload due to the amount of injuries the Mavs’ bigs are dealing with.
Last season in DC, Gafford recorded a faster postgame pace the more minutes he played. That changed after he was traded last February. Generally In Dallas, the fewer minutes Gafford played the higher his pace was. More on that when we get closer to the deadline and I publish my full study.
Something I’m finding as I compile research about these players (and Bagley, because my big study includes data from last season when Gaff was traded), is that a player records a faster pace in games where they’ve played fewer minutes. This is consistently true for JV but less so for Gafford.
Playing against his old team on 1/27, Daniel Gafford played 24 minutes and his pace following that game is 102.69. In his previous game (1/25), Gafford played 32:55 and his pace was recorded at 102.84
In their previous games:
JV, 1/25: pace of 103.14, played 17:26
Holmes, 1/10: pace of 99.49, played 6:10
Marvin Bagley III is injured and hasn’t played in January, so I didn’t include his numbers in this.
But Bagley’s most up to date pace is 104.51, recorded after the Wizards played OKC 12/23
Time for a mini-thread, let’s talk centers. I took down how many minutes Washington’s Jonas Valanciunas and Richaun Holmes played last night against Dallas, and their season paces after that game:
JV: pace of 102.95, played 18:37
Holmes: pace of 100.07, played 9:58
Tristan Vukcevic’s player impact estimate is >0 for the first time this season.
His PIE is 4.6 (prev -5.6), the second lowest on the team. Only Kyshawn George has a lower PIE currently, at 4.2.
The pace and PIE charts are both updated, but here’s a picture of Tristan’s PIE as it’s evolved
I have something in the works for today! Like a little teaser for what the big project is going to look like👀
Kyle Kuzma ranks ninth in PIE (or currently tied with Sarr for 8th, however you want to look at it) sitting at 8.4. His “aggression” last night paid off and his PIE increased from 8.0 to 8.4 from 1/23 to 1/25.
Top five Wizards in PIE as of 1/25:
JV: 15.9
MBIII: 14.1
Jared Butler: 12.5
Malcom Brogdon: 11.6
PBJ: 11.4
Note: PBJ hasn’t played since 1/13, Brogdon hasn’t played since 1/5, and MBIII has not played a game in January
Unsurprisingly when the Wizards play a slower opponent (as far as pace) ie Phoenix, the players record a lower game pace.
The only exception to this from last night is Kyshawn George, w/ an identical pace of 102.78 on 1/23 and 1/25. George also recorded identical PIE (4.4) for two straight games
Kispert: 7.3 ➡️ 7.2
Davis: 7.1➡️ 7.2
Both Anthony Gill and Bub Carrington’s postgame PIE was 6.5 on 1/21 and 1/23. On 1/19, I recorded their postgame player impact estimates at 6.6. So for three consecutive games, Carrington and Gill have recorded the same postgame PIE.
Something that always interests me when I update my graphs is when two players record the same pace or PIE in a game.
As of last night (1/23) Jordan Poole and Alex Sarr’s most recent postgame pace is 105.15.
Corey Kispert and Johnny Davis’ most recent postgame PIE is 7.2
listening to classical music while researching basketball stats is good for the soul 🎶📖
Seeing that the Mavs might not be looking to move Gafford, and if Jason Kidd is going to use him properly then I’m all for that.
Still, I’m plugging ahead on my project about if the Wizards miss Gaff, expect it around the trade deadline
Weird that we have to say this, but the government doesn’t get to decide what gender a person is.
