LOWρUFO 🇺🇦🇵🇸🇬🇱

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-40° Celsius sounds a lot colder than it is

First funny thing ever posted to conservative election twitter

I come bearing pristine theatrics

Has the shape store made its way to bsky yet?

On brand for this guy if true. Doubly so if he's lying

Airstrike kills Iran-aligned militia commander south of Baghdad – police sources A ​commander from ‌Islamic Resistance in Iraq, ​an ​umbrella group of ⁠Iran-backed ​armed factions, ​was killed in an airstrike ​on ​Wednesday, police sources ‌said.

Airstrike kills Iran-aligned militia commander south of Baghdad – police sources reut.rs/4l8FU4N

(like a coin flip)

Tails

Summarising the Israeli government’s position, Citrinowicz said: “If we can have a coup, great. If we can have people on the streets, great. If we can have a civil war, great. Israel couldn’t care less about the future . . . [or] the stability of Iran. “That is a point of difference between us and the US. I think [Washington is] are more concerned about nation-building and threats to their regional partners,” he added.

okay but you get that Iran has 93 million people, right

Ravid has also deleted his post

The parsimonious explanation here is:

They're Iranian Kurds originally staged in Iraq, not Iraqi Kurds
There aren't that many of them
They've been moved into Iran to fight as irregulars
Attacks have not started

I'm less convinced this is happening

The parsimonious explanation here is:

They're Iranian Kurds originally staged in Iraq, not Iraqi Kurds
There aren't that many of them
They've been moved into Iran to fight as irregulars
Attacks have not started

I'm less convinced this is happening

PDK: Herêma Kurdistanê ne beşeke vî şerî ye PDKyê daxuyanî da

Denial from the KDP. They do also have reasons to downplay any such operation. It's very much up in the air imo

I think it's mostly just small (probably smaller than what the USG is claiming). There's been a ton of activity in Iraqi Kurdistan over the past few days as well that'd generate a lot of noise and cloud the picture

I'm seeing that too

Nothing significant I think

Or pull it apart at the seams

Or they're looking for locals to harbor them

Seems like this is getting picked up by others with sources in the USG. "Thousands" isn't a lot in the grand scheme of things, even with US/Israeli airpower in the picture, but I don't think this is designed for its first order effects

Iraqi government has been working super hard to prevent or at least limit Shi'a militias from fighting directly for the Iranian regime.
I suspect it will be near impossible to prevent the direct involvement of Shi'a militias after "Kurdish forces" have entered the chat.

I think this is at least partially true, and the main function of saying it is to spur Iraninan crackdowns large enough to spur an actual insurgency

i24News believes Iraqi Kurdish forces are launching an operation. It's unclear to me what that means or what their sourcing is

A lot of people are very embarassed by their own positions and it shows.

Woofers on X: "U.S. C-RAM intercepting drones over Erbil tonight https://t.co/MVTge9xDcA" / X U.S. C-RAM intercepting drones over Erbil tonight https://t.co/MVTge9xDcA

These have been really active in Erbil, Iraq over the past couple of days

Basically a 1:1 with islamophobia post-9/11

One outcome that I think isn't exactly unlikely is the left wing of the party being very principled and welcoming while the center goes all in on antisemitism in swing states. It's sorta how the constituencies work to begin with