It pairs w/ this @rethinktrade.bsky.social .bsky.social chart showing a handful of nations in chronic global trade surplus vs. 67 global deficit nations incl India, MX, Brazil w/ U.S: rethinktrade.org/wp-content/u...
This chart shows the results of China's mercantilist trade policy: distorted, maximilist exports levels and few imports.
x.com/Brad_Setser/...
Bottom line: Will the Trump admin remove USMCA digital trade rules that internationally preempt laws made since USMCA went into effect or let Big Tech hijack Trump’s NAFTA redo to undermine 8 US state right to repair laws, Tex & Montana child online safety/privacy laws, etc 9/9
Another former USTR staffer, Jonathan McHale, who wrote USMCA’s “digital trade” rules Big Tech loves & now lobbies for the Computer & Communications Industry Assoc, couldn’t resist asking for more! New rules to limit AI oversight, back to uninspected de minimis imports etc. 8
The witness from a group called The Internet Society (members include Amazon, Google, China Telecom) began saying they dont have a business stake & dont engage on trade & then literally mouthed Big Tech’s talking points defending the 5 USMCA terms limiting Big Tech regulation 7/
The Consumer Technology Assoc. digital trade lobbyist, another revolving door former US Trade Representative staffer, had the vibe too: This is a review, NOT a renegotiation of USMCA. Do no harm (to USMCA’s extreme limits on common govt policies regulating Big Tech). Then… 6/
Wish I had not respected the 5-min limit when I spoke — see below for our comments.
One of the many former US government trade officials now repping Big Tech at this USMCA 6-year review hearing just went on (unblissfully) for almost ten mins…5/ t.co/zN0ZuG4AKZ
The Business Software Alliance witness didn’t discussing USMCA & instead “countered” dangerous “myths” about digital trade, which turned out to be a rhetorical poke at critiques documented in the body of analytical & research literature found at our rethinktrade.xn--org-l353b 4/
“Us” is small biz, consumers, our privacy, our kids, our right to repair our stuff… The rules Big Tech got into USMCA use a form of international preemption. Ie “trade” agt rules simply forbid common policies governments use to counter Big Tech abuses 3/ rethinktrade.org/reports/inte...
The defensive “do no harm” call for no changes to USMCA shows Big Tech realizes many in Congress, unions, consumer/digital rights groups are on to their ploy of using closed door trade talks & wonky trade rules to forbid Congress & state legislatures from protecting us-meaning 2/
10 Big Tech lobbyists here to defend special privileges & powers they got Trump to add to his 2020 US-Mexico-Canada Agt or USMCA - the Trump NAFTA update. Versus 2 witnesses against Big Tech’s “digital trade” attack at hearing on the 6-year USMCA review. Quite revealing… 1/
Commerce Sec. Lutnick said the Trump admin will trade away American manufacturing (steel tariffs) if Europe will gut law against Big Tech monopoly abuse. For a quick overview of EU digital regs Trump wants killed & the implications, check out my latest Rethinking Trade podcast.
Because of the govt shutdown, we don’t have the latest Fed data on manufacturing construction investment. But in the first half of 2025, it was trending down monthly same as the manufacturing indexes described in this story. Opposite of what Trump promised working class voters.
Explicitly trading away U.S. manufacturing (steel and aluminum tariffs) for Big-Tech-demanded rollbacks of European anti-monopoly and other digital safeguards is pretty much the opposite of what Trump promised working class voters in PA, WI, MI, etc. 😡
Thank you @rokhanna.bsky.social for raising awareness about Trump’s lopsided America Last China “trade deal.” Yes to a Manhattan Project on rare earths. The minerals are not so rare as far as where they are located, but they require intense processing. We must improve/stand up that capacity.
Absent action against price gouging, corp. concentration I bet we won’t get cheaper bananas, coffee, etc. ie. 3 corps have 80% of US banana sales, etc.
Firms can use tariffs as cover to up prices even if exporters cover tariff costs or goods arent tariffed and never cut... 5/5
It seems POTUS is feeling pressure from the Democrats' "affordability" election sweep.
So why not target the real cause of high beef prices -- 4 huge meatpackers controlling 85% of the US beef market! (Read @basel.bsky.social's great 9/24 report w/ FarmActionUS to learn more.) 4/
Obviously announcing tariffs cuts on items w/o tariffs won't cut prices
But tariff cuts on goods that do also won't likely cut prices
@RethinkTrade
tracked the consumer price index vs China tariff rate & corporate profits. Prices📈tracked corp profit trends not tariff levels 3/
So, there should never have been tariffs on “tropical products” like coffee, cocoa, pineapple, mangoes etc. that we don’t produce here. The elimination of these tariffs now seems to be the unfortunate Trump “READY, FIRE, AIM!” general tariff chaos. But🤔on beef and tomatoes! 2/
Please share your theory: Why did Trump announce beef 🥩and tomato🍅tariff cuts when 99% of US🍅imports and 42% of🥩are from Mexico or Canada and ALREADY DUTY FREE under USMCA? Argentine beef is another 25% import share and ALREADY HAD TARIFFS CUT. So why cut PHANTOM TARIFFS? 1/
Larry Summers — not just wrong and immoral on economics and trade…
And POTUS again shreds his lawyer's key claim in SupCrt tariff case:
Trump SolGen Sauer 11/5 - "These are regulatory tariffs. They are not revenue-raising tariffs.... The tariffs would be most effective, so to speak, if no -- no -- no person ever paid them."
Trump 11/9👇
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the cases challenging Pres Trump's broad tariff authority. Catch up w/ highlights from the 2+ hour session & hints of where the SCrt may be headed in my thread👇This is a very consequential case. Tariff rates are the least of it!
Thank you!
Good thread about supreme court arguments RE: Trump tariff power over reach case.
OUT NOW: What’s at Stake in Trump's Supreme Court Tariff Case by @wallachlori.bsky.social on the Economic Populist via @econliberties.bsky.social.
economicpopulist.substack.com/p/whats-at-s...
3) how difficult it is practically for Congress to use the vote IEEPA provides to end emergency declaration given a prez can veto so supermajority needed. The same conservative justice seemed to be sorting that v. what to make of what Congress meant w/ specific IEEPA terms.
...tariff authority because many of the conservative justices seemed concerned re. 1) lack of any bounds to administration's notion of the authority IEEPA grants a prez 2) where that broad delegation could lead re declarations of dif types of emergencies by dif presidents...
And, with that, the oral arguments WRAP.
Now festivities shift to front steps of the court, where litigants will do press.
My biggest takeaway: Tho oral arguments arent ispositive of where court will go, bet Trump staff will be dusting off other statutes that give a prez...
I do not envy SolGen having to make the latter argument with Pres. Trump constantly bragging about how much money the tariffs are bringing in AND the fact that the US trade deficit has increased during the period the tariffs have been in effect.
