Steve Fisher

Things continue to go badly for Labour By Stephen Fisher, 27 February 2026 Yesterday Labour lost the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election. This was a constituency were they took 50.8% of the vote at the 2024 general ele…

New post by me on how and why support for Labour has dropped since the general election, and how the Green by-election win yesterday increases the chances of a Reform majority at the next GE because tactical coordination failure on the left is now more likely.

electionsetc.com/2026/02/27/t...

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Const:
SNP: 34% (+2)
RFM: 18% (+1)
LAB: 14% (-6)
GRN: 11% (+2)
CON: 10% (=)
LDM: 10% (=)

Reg:
SNP: 28% (-1)
RFM: 19% (+1)
GRN: 16% (+6)
LAB: 14% (-7)
CON: 10% (=)
LDM: 10% (=)
ALBA: 1% (-2)

Via YouGov / Scottish Elections Study, 11-18 Feb.
Changes w/ 13-19 Jun.

Things continue to go badly for Labour Yesterday Labour lost the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election.

Substack version:

electionsetc.substack.com/p/things-con...

Things continue to go badly for Labour By Stephen Fisher, 27 February 2026 Yesterday Labour lost the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election. This was a constituency were they took 50.8% of the vote at the 2024 general ele…

New post by me on how and why support for Labour has dropped since the general election, and how the Green by-election win yesterday increases the chances of a Reform majority at the next GE because tactical coordination failure on the left is now more likely.

electionsetc.com/2026/02/27/t...

The @niassembly.bsky.social has produced a briefing paper on public views towards reform of Stormont. It looks at a range of evidence, including my 2023 report 'Perspectives on the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement' co-authored with @alanrenwick.bsky.social at the @conunitucl.bsky.social

Links below

Gorton and Denton could mark the beginning of the end for the Labour Party The by-election humiliation has deepened the crisis over Keir Starmer’s leadership – but it has also made it more likely that the Greens will now overtake Labour as the main party of the left, says Jo...

Gorton and Denton could mark the beginning of the end for the Labour Party www.independent.co.uk/voices/gorto...

Lab vote share decline is all the more dramatic for having fallen by 16 points between 2019 and 2024. Governments defending by-elections are normally starting from the high end of their range of vote share but not in this seat.

Firm but fair criticism from @alanrenwick.bsky.social of the "glaring omission" in the Representation of the People Bill.

The independence of the Electoral Commission has been seriously undermined. The government must act to restore it.

Read in full @conunitucl.bsky.social 👇
buff.ly/qhmruE3

Gorton and Denton by-election
Hannah Spencer, Green 41% +27
Matt Goodwin, Reform 29% +15
Angeliki Stogia, Labour 25% -25
Charlotte Cadden, Con 2% -6
Jackie Pearcey, Lib Dem 2% -2
Swing Lab->Green 26.4%
Turnout 48% -0.2

There even an academic paper on By-election exit polls from that time by Clive Payne.

Source: Academia.edu share.google/2czcPYgzvOvC...

While rolling back climate regulations, the Trump administration says this is what the American people want. Yet, YPCCC’s own research shows that a majority of Americans think global warming is happening and that it is making extreme weather worse. climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications...

My Trade Secrets today. The Trump tariff refunds saga is blackly comic. About 20% of tariffs levied on Chinese exporters are paid directly by those exporters. So they get a refund windfall, having largely passed the tariff costs on to US co.s & consumers. I know, right?

as.ft.com/r/30dbb3e0-8...

Italy pitches a nifty idea to cut power prices Rome is the first to break ranks to overhaul the broad structure of the market and the cost of greening it

“Italy … wants to lower wholesale prices by reimbursing power generators for the carbon permits they have to buy, and recover the cost directly from customer bills." "gas-fired plants might well gain market share" ... "It is greensliding”

www.ft.com/content/d4a6...

The article is the first to use 15-country protest surveys to map this overlooked East–West cleavage in the global climate movement. It finds FFF climate protesters in Eastern Europe to be more apolitical & pro-market than their left-leaning Western peers.

Research on the global climate movement underlines the importance of learning and diffusion processes for adopting similar master frames and movement tactics. At the same time, participation research suggests regionally different patterns of mobilisation and protest behaviour. Due to different historical socialisation processes, Western and Eastern European citizens show differences in political activity despite some signs of convergence. This article examines the sociodemographic characteristics and attitudes of climate activists from Eastern and Western Europe. Using protest surveys of Fridays for Future participants in 15 Western and Eastern European countries, we show significant differences between them. Western European climate activists tend to have stronger leftist attitudes, while in Eastern Europe apolitical stances are more common along with higher confidence in market solutions to solve environmental problems. Such differences are likely to affect the cohesion and success of the global climate movement.

New article!

Differences within global movements: insights from FFF climate protests in Western and Eastern Europe by Aron Buzogány, Dániel Mikecz & Piotr Kocyba.

@buzogany.bsky.social @piotrkocyba.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2026.2623726

The Representation of the People Bill: contours of the debates to come The government’s long-awaited proposals for electoral reforms, published last month, will receive their first scrutiny in the House of Commons next Monday. Ahead of that debate, Alan Renwick analyses which of the bill’s proposals – and omissions – are likely to spark most contention. He suggests that pressure to strengthen the bill will be intense on multiple fronts.

NEW BLOG: The Representation of the People Bill: contours of the debates to come

Ahead of the bill's second reading on Monday, @alanrenwick.bsky.social covers 'astonishing weaknesses', an idea that is 'indefensible in a democracy' and another 'breach of such a basic democratic principle'.

In normal times, in a normal democracy this 👇 should be all we talk about, drawing the connection that doubling down of gas makes Italy (a) locked in high electricity prices and (b) geopolitically dependent on foreign sources (eg US LNG).
bsky.app/profile/fgen...

🚨THIS!

Many are mesmerized by Italy’s current government for some reason (well I know why, it‘s all about lack of proper home grown media and Meloni’s crafty ability to do quiet politics well).

But this Italian govt is just a normalized far right with many the pro-carbon features you would expect.

Three out of four people worldwide report being religious, but rates vary a lot across countries. Horizontal bar chart of the share who say they are affiliated with any religion, based on self-identification regardless of practices or beliefs. Values shown: India 100%, Pakistan 100%, South Africa 97%, Global share 76% (annotated "Three-quarters of the world population are religious"), United States 70%, Australia 58%, South Korea 52%, Japan 43%, Hong Kong 29%, Czechia 27%, China 10% (annotated "Just one-in-ten people in China identify with a particular religion"). Data source: Pew Research Centre (2025).

Three out of four people worldwide consider themselves religious, but rates vary a lot across countries—

Most people in the world are religious. When asked whether they identify with any religion, three-quarters of respondents choose one.

Gorton and Denton Update 1 There's somethin' happenin' here, what it is ain't exactly clear

New Swingometer! With nominations now closed, and a few surprises in candidate selection, here's my first update on the Gorton & Denton by election. Also featuring a polling spat, dodgy bar charts, and Jason Momoa swingometer.substack.com/p/gorton-and...

How to deal with defecting MPs Voters should be able to force parliamentarians who change parties to face the electorate

Thoughts in the FT on why I don't like the idea of an automatic by election if an MP changes party - but understand why some people do, along with a possible compromise...

How to deal with defecting MPs - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

A Rich Woman's World? Wealth and Gendered Paths to Office We introduce and seek to explain a new and surprising fact about members of the US Congress: since at least the 1980s, Congresswomen have been substantially wealthier than Congressmen serving in the ....

In the midst of chaos, excited to share a new publication with @aeggers.bsky.social and Marko Klašnja, dx.doi.org/10.1111/lsq..... As usual, I write an embarrassing thread about my wonderful coauthors-- 🧵 (1/)

Hitler DID win...(at least in part) Theodor Meron was just a boy when his mother and maternal grandparents were executed by the Nazis...he has spent a lifetime making sure the same atrocities are never carried out again

Too crude a headline, but a good introduction to Ted Meron's extraordinary life and memoire: www.dailymail.co.uk/home/books/a...

Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats.

🧵 on some of what it can do below:

jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...

Had a great chat to @xavierbonilla.bsky.social about Islam in global history and you can hear it now!

I'm half way through the audio version of this and it is great...

Nigel Farage confirms Reform still intends to stop the Bank of England paying interest on QE reserves. Stephanie Flanders says this is effectively a £20bn tax on the banks. "This will be tough for banks to accept. I get that. I'm sorry. The drain on the public finances is just too great," he says.

Number of UK newspaper editorials arguing for more (blue) and less (red) climate action, 2011-2025. Some editorials also present a “balanced” view, which is categorised as advocating for neither “more” nor “less” climate action. These editorials are not represented in this chart. Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

NEW – Analysis: UK newspaper editorial opposition to climate action overtakes support for first time | @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social @sylviahayes.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/eAPkvkx

European defence stocks surge as Greenland tensions mount Sector has jumped nearly 15% this month as investors bet domestic military spending will have to keep rising

"European defence stocks are enjoying a blistering start to 2026, as US threats to take control of Greenland and tensions with Venezuela reignite a rally in one of last year’s hottest equity market sectors." www.ft.com/content/0bea...

USA søgte i fortrolighed viden om militære installationer i Grønland Hidtil ukendte dokumenter fra dansk forsvar viser, at Forsvarsministeriet og den øverste danske militære ledelse var bekymret over, at USA – uformelt og uden at involvere København – forsøgte at få da...

"... Danish military leadership were concerned that the United States – informally and without involving Copenhagen – was trying to get Danish colleagues in Greenland to hand over information about military installations, ports and air bases in Greenland" www.berlingske.dk/internationa...