John Carey

New Bright Line Watch report out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke Susan Stokes and Jack Andolina. As always, sobering news but worth reading. And as always, thanks to all the academic experts who give time to our surveys.

Your ESSENTIAL democracy conversation is my @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast with @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke about the latest Bright Line Watch report, Threats to #democracy and academic freedom after Trump’s second first 100 days.

newbooksnetwork.com/constitution...

New podcast on threats to democracy and academic freedom in the US with my Bright Line Watch colleagues @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke

FABULOUS conversation with @johncarey.bsky.social and Gretchen Helmke from Bright Line Watch about the April report on American democracy. @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast coming! Meanwhile, check out the newest report and follow @brendannyhan.bsky.social
brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...

New report from BrightLineWatch.org with lots on threats to academic freedom as well as updates on the state of American democracy. With @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, and Sue Stokes

Republicans who say they are more aligned with Trump than the GOP are somewhat less likely to rate democracy favorably and more likely to view strongman rule positively. In total, 55% of Trump supporters endorse a strong leader who doesn’t have to bother with Congress.

Experts identified Patel's confirmation (now official) and the White House revoking media credentials as the most likely events that pose a significant threat to democracy.

After adjusting for pessimism bias, expert forecasts correspond closely with forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform.

Political science and misinformation experts assessed technology-related threats to democracy similarly, though misinformation experts rated Meta's loosened content moderation rules and the revoking of the Biden AI executive order as more threatening to democracy than political science experts.

Experts rate Jan. 6 pardons and firings of executive branch officials as the gravest threats to American democracy, followed closely by the roles and influence of Musk/DOGE. These actions were widely approved by Republicans.

-Expert ratings of US democracy lowest since we began tracking in 2017
-The percentage of experts who say the US is upholding specific democratic principles dropped by >30 percentage points for six principles (such as non-interference with the press) and declined by 10–20 points on eleven others.

Re-upping @brendannyhan.bsky.social alert on the new Bright Line Watch report on the first month of Trump 2. New data on attitudes toward democracy, executive aggrandizement, and political violence.

@davidkarol.bsky.social - Thanks for asking, and if you want to push harder on the data, they are here - brightlinewatch.org/survey-data-.... Feedback and suggestions always welcome!

The Path to American Authoritarianism What comes after democratic breakdown.

Read and heed from @stevelevitsky.bsky.social and @lucanway.bsky.social. This is the best overview I've seen, not just of the last few weeks, but of what to expect in the next few years, and how history (ours and, yes, from other countries) can instruct us - www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

A Constitutional Crisis? We’re covering an imbalance of power in the government.

📣MORE OF THIS!
Rare coverage: NOT “strategy framed” (doesnt say how this “is bad for Dems” for example) & not an “opinion” piece. Just straight reporting on Trump violating the Constitution and global experts fears for US democracy. Thanks @brendannyhan.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/b...

Graph of ratings of American democracy by experts that shows a sharp decline under President Trump and his second term

“The president is openly violating the law & Constitution on a daily basis”- @brendannyhan.bsky.social
messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/rend...
“We’re talking about the idea of whether the president has to follow the law at all. I never thought I’d have to say [that] about the US.”

Right now: Phenomenal conference on the erosion of democracy & the rule of law. Many speakers emphasizing the critical need to "make legible" what is happening in the US today--those who have the freedom to speak out must continue to do so as many are being intimidated into silence.

@brendannyhan.bsky.social and brand new survey data from Bright Line Watch featured in @nytimes.com The Morning newsletter with German Lopez. We're on new and unfamiliar terrain here.

Interior Department Says Gulf of Mexico Is Now ‘Gulf of America’ Trump also renamed Denali, North America’s tallest peak, as Mount McKinley, despite objections from Alaska’s senators.

www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/u...
This is government by 8 year-old boys

Opinion | How to Fix America’s Two-Party Problem Proportional representation could help restore American democracy.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Intro course in electoral reform from @leedrutman.bsky.social @jessewegman.bsky.social let’s do this

Threats to democracy in the 2nd Trump administration - Niskanen Center Trump has promised to remake the federal bureaucracy in his own image and go after his political opponents and the media in his 2nd administration. But there are signals that public protest and civil ...

Outstanding back and forth on current threats to democracy, pessimism bias among experts, and how to correct for it - featuring @brendannyhan.bsky.social, @smotus.bsky.social, and BrightLineWatch.org data. Catch it (recommending 1.75x speed) at www.niskanencenter.org/threats-to-d...

How concerned should we be about backsliding during the second Trump term? Have past concerns come to fruition? Bright Light Watch asked experts to assign probabilities to concrete "bad" events in several past waves and the most recent one. We collaborated on a report summarizing these predictions.

Important, but also another way in which our politics are distorted by the Trump GOP's "heads I win, tails you lose" approach.

Damn, that was a good analysis even then, and it's looking better and better with time. Helps to be building on a rock-solid foundation.

(joint with @johncarey.bsky.social, Brian Fogarty, @jasonreifler.bsky.social, and amazing Dartmouth students Elizabeth Chun, Alice Cook, Leyla Jacoby, and Lilian Sweeney)

Referring to support for presidential immunity? Agree. But note our survey fielded just before the decision was handed down. That number may drop further (may already have).

Latest from @brightlinewatch just out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social @suestokes.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke and Olivier Bergeron-Boutin - check out the Nyhan thread or read the whole report here - brightlinewatch.org/from-convict...

that's great - if they have ideas for how to improve future surveys, we want to hear them - thanks

My public opinion undergrads will be working through this report in a few weeks.

Please read the full report, share and post!

New Bright Line Watch report brightlinewatch.org/courts-campa...

Experts also expect Trump to attempt to stay in office beyond 2029, invoke Insurrection Act, and leave NATO. Majorities of Rs approve of first two and 32% would approve him trying to stay in office past January 2029. (7/9)