Political Gambler

Political Gambler

@paulmotty.bsky.social

30 years+ semi or professional gambler. Political analyst for Betfair and bylines at GQ, Politico, Reuters, CityAM. www.politicalgambler.com Media enquires: paulkrishnamurty@gmail.com

957 Followers 1,019 Following 1,184 Posts Joined Nov 2023
1 day ago
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The due diligence report on Peter Mandelson's appointment handed to Keir Starmer warned about Mandelson's financial links to Russia, which he retained "long after Putin's annexation of Crimea"

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1 day ago
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Translation: If something that we have no reports of happened, it had better be sorted or there will be consequences!

PANIC! BUY OIL PRICES NOW!

(After I confirm that the thing we had no reports about indeed didn't happen, sell back at inflated price).

KERCHING!

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1 day ago
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Translation: If something that we have no reports of happened, it had better be sorted or there will be consequences!

PANIC! BUY OIL PRICES NOW!

(After I confirm that the thing we had no reports about indeed didn't happen, sell back at inflated price).

KERCHING!

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2 days ago

Reform UK on the war -

9 March, Robert Jenrick: ‘this war needs to come to an end as soon as possible….that’s why Nigel Farage immediately ruled out suggestions that UK might deploy boots on the ground. Nor do we see why British aircraft should become involved in offensive action.’ Daily Telegraph

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2 days ago

It is truly terrifying that so many educated, broadly sane/competent people treat seriously the words of an insane, compulsive liar with zero track record for anything other than crime.

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2 days ago

Ed Miliband, famously closing coal mines as a 14-year-old minister in Thatcher's government during the miners' strike

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4 days ago

Yes, also the system. 80 signatures to challenge. That person then comes under withering attack (esp Rayner). Labour have never sacked a leader for such structural reason.

Possible NEC elections produce a rule change.

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4 days ago

Yes exactly that. Fwiw, I don't think there is a meaningful 'plot', just panic stations.

Burnham is the desired solution, but how?

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4 days ago
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CPAC Head Says Iranian Schoolgirls Are Better Dead Than “in a Burqa” Leading Republicans don’t seem to care about the bombing of a girls’ school in Iran.

Disabled people tried to warn you.

We said the “better off dead” narrative being weaponized against us would be used for other groups of people.

The fascists won’t ever stop. They see everyone else as less than. Expendable. Not worthy of life.

Its eugenics on a massive scale

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4 days ago

I remain a 2027 backer. Expect 2026 will go shorter after the May elections.

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4 days ago

It is very possible that the next UK govt is a right-wing ally of fascist USA. Which then goes to war with Western Europe, in an informal alliance with Putin.

At that stage, what are we non-fascists who consider Western Europe to be an ally supposed to do?

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4 days ago

They will deny any connection - instead blaming the UK govt and welfare. And successfully gaslight a critical mass of bewildered UK voters. Just as they have with countless fake talking points and slogans for the past 50 years. Basic #UKSR rules.

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1 week ago
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US Midterm Election Odds: Democrats Odds-On To Regain House Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas host the first batch of primaries....

Tonight sees the opening primaries of the US Midterms. Texas is the highlight and one of the key targets in the Democrats goal of regaining the Senate.

My latest for @gamblingcom.bsky.social

www.gambling.com/uk/news/us-m...

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1 week ago

I am begging people to understand Gorton and Denton is a very untypical constituency. In most English seats, the Green surge and the Reform advance we saw last night would deliver a Reform MP. As things stand, Farage should be the massive favourite to be next PM.

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2 weeks ago
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Land and Expand – how Palantir captured the Ministry of Defence 23rd February 2026 What a close reading of public domain documents tells us about two concerning contract awards * Over at the Financial Times at the weekend I had an “op-ed” column on how Palantir…

This, from @davidallengreen.bsky.social is frankly terrifying:

"In essence: Palantir commercially colonised the Ministry of Defence because the Ministry of Defence let them."

davidallengreen.com/2026/02/land...

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2 weeks ago

Restore Britain's language is not just racist it's now indistinguishable from Neo-Nazi groups.

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2 weeks ago

Good sense!

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2 weeks ago
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Jeffrey Epstein was the subject of a DEA probe that spanned at least 5 years, heavily redacted document reveals A memo shows Jeffrey Epstein was the subject of a previously undisclosed U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency investigation targeting him and 14 others for suspicious money transfers possibly linked to illega...

The document described here is a big development that expands our understanding of Epstein's criminal activities, but remains too redacted. We know the Trump administration is covering up for Epstein's pedophile buddies. This is evidence they're covering up for drug cartels too.

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2 weeks ago

Perhaps, but if filtering for likely to vote, Green are +2. Also 4% is too high for LD, suspect they switch to Green. Opinium count undecideds on 2024 vote, which helps Labour, maybe Con, hurts Green.

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2 weeks ago
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Justice Department withheld and removed some Epstein files related to Trump An NPR investigation finds the public database of Epstein files is missing dozens of pages related to sexual abuse accusations against President Trump.

The US Justice Department withheld testimony that Donald Trump sexually abused a girl when she was 13 or 14 - according to a source who viewed unredacted Epstein files.

This is the worst scandal in US history and should be the biggest news story on the planet right now.

www.npr.org/2026/02/24/n...

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2 weeks ago
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Gorton And Denton By-Election Odds & Betting Tips: Green Day For Polanski Party? The Greater Manchester constituency will head to the polls on Thursday...

My final thoughts, bets and predictions for the Gorton and Denton by-election, for @gamblingcom.bsky.social

www.gambling.com/uk/news/gort...

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2 weeks ago
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The rise of Plaid is about more than just Labour's failures. In 2016, 31% of Welsh voters said they were more Welsh than British, and 34% of those said they would vote Plaid Cymru. In 2025, the numbers were 41% of voters, 53% of whom planned to vote for Plaid

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3 weeks ago

Thanks mate.

I see UNHRC are also labelling Epstein a 'huge global criminal network.'

Time to join the dots.

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3 weeks ago

More of this please. Accelerated decoupling.

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3 weeks ago
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Nigel Farage’s popularity dips as Reform UK surges in polls YouGov figures point to challenges ahead for populist party’s leader as he seeks to win backing from more voters

64% of the UK public view the Reform UK leader unfavourably, up from 59% in June 2025, according to new favourability ratings published by polling company YouGov

Some 27% approve of Farage, down from a peak of 32% in May and August last year

www.ft.com/content/2bcb...

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3 weeks ago
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UK General Election Odds: How Far Can The Green Party Go Under Zack Polanski? The environmental party are favourites to win the Gorton and Denton by-election....

As the Gorton and Denton by-election odds move further towards the Greens, my latest for @gamblingcom.bsky.social analyses how far the party can rise under Zack Polanski.

www.gambling.com/uk/news/uk-g...

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1 month ago
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If the US did what the French are doing right now, the effects on Twitter and Facebook would be enormous.

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1 month ago

The idiot commentariat are claiming Starmer never had a plan to be leader, wasn't in the running, until McSweeney talked him into it.

They really do think the public is thick, and has no memory.

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1 month ago

Agreed. And the fact we know Russia had a degree of success (likely growing) in both 2016/2020 into hacking US electoral systems.

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1 month ago

Yes, Trump depicting the Obamas as apes is racist, vile. As ever.

But ffs, don't buy into the distraction! They do this every time.

The Epstein files have him on the ropes like never before. Stay with it.

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