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Political Gambler

@paulmotty.bsky.social

30 years+ semi or professional gambler. Political analyst for Betfair and bylines at GQ, Politico, Reuters, CityAM. www.politicalgambler.com Media enquires: paulkrishnamurty@gmail.com

956 Followers  |  1,016 Following  |  1,176 Posts  |  Joined: 13.11.2023
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Posts by Political Gambler (@paulmotty.bsky.social)

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US Midterm Election Odds: Democrats Odds-On To Regain House Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas host the first batch of primaries....

Tonight sees the opening primaries of the US Midterms. Texas is the highlight and one of the key targets in the Democrats goal of regaining the Senate.

My latest for @gamblingcom.bsky.social

www.gambling.com/uk/news/us-m...

03.03.2026 13:47 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I am begging people to understand Gorton and Denton is a very untypical constituency. In most English seats, the Green surge and the Reform advance we saw last night would deliver a Reform MP. As things stand, Farage should be the massive favourite to be next PM.

27.02.2026 08:47 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 9    πŸ“Œ 0
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Land and Expand – how Palantir captured the Ministry of Defence 23rd February 2026 What a close reading of public domain documents tells us about two concerning contract awards * Over at theΒ Financial TimesΒ at the weekend I hadΒ anΒ β€œop-ed” columnΒ on how Palantir…

This, from @davidallengreen.bsky.social is frankly terrifying:

"In essence: Palantir commercially colonised the Ministry of Defence because the Ministry of Defence let them."

davidallengreen.com/2026/02/land...

23.02.2026 19:35 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

Restore Britain's language is not just racist it's now indistinguishable from Neo-Nazi groups.

25.02.2026 11:14 β€” πŸ‘ 831    πŸ” 178    πŸ’¬ 24    πŸ“Œ 11

Good sense!

25.02.2026 00:00 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Jeffrey Epstein was the subject of a DEA probe that spanned at least 5 years, heavily redacted document reveals A memo shows Jeffrey Epstein was the subject of a previously undisclosed U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency investigation targeting him and 14 others for suspicious money transfers possibly linked to illega...

The document described here is a big development that expands our understanding of Epstein's criminal activities, but remains too redacted. We know the Trump administration is covering up for Epstein's pedophile buddies. This is evidence they're covering up for drug cartels too.

24.02.2026 20:58 β€” πŸ‘ 1210    πŸ” 546    πŸ’¬ 38    πŸ“Œ 24

Perhaps, but if filtering for likely to vote, Green are +2. Also 4% is too high for LD, suspect they switch to Green. Opinium count undecideds on 2024 vote, which helps Labour, maybe Con, hurts Green.

24.02.2026 21:48 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Justice Department withheld and removed some Epstein files related to Trump An NPR investigation finds the public database of Epstein files is missing dozens of pages related to sexual abuse accusations against President Trump.

The US Justice Department withheld testimony that Donald Trump sexually abused a girl when she was 13 or 14 - according to a source who viewed unredacted Epstein files.

This is the worst scandal in US history and should be the biggest news story on the planet right now.

www.npr.org/2026/02/24/n...

24.02.2026 19:39 β€” πŸ‘ 5022    πŸ” 2445    πŸ’¬ 124    πŸ“Œ 147
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Gorton And Denton By-Election Odds & Betting Tips: Green Day For Polanski Party? The Greater Manchester constituency will head to the polls on Thursday...

My final thoughts, bets and predictions for the Gorton and Denton by-election, for @gamblingcom.bsky.social

www.gambling.com/uk/news/gort...

24.02.2026 18:47 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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The rise of Plaid is about more than just Labour's failures. In 2016, 31% of Welsh voters said they were more Welsh than British, and 34% of those said they would vote Plaid Cymru. In 2025, the numbers were 41% of voters, 53% of whom planned to vote for Plaid

19.02.2026 22:16 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks mate.

I see UNHRC are also labelling Epstein a 'huge global criminal network.'

Time to join the dots.

19.02.2026 09:47 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

More of this please. Accelerated decoupling.

16.02.2026 21:30 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Nigel Farage’s popularity dips as Reform UK surges in polls YouGov figures point to challenges ahead for populist party’s leader as he seeks to win backing from more voters

64% of the UK public view the Reform UK leader unfavourably, up from 59% in June 2025, according to new favourability ratings published by polling company YouGov

Some 27% approve of Farage, down from a peak of 32% in May and August last year

www.ft.com/content/2bcb...

13.02.2026 09:50 β€” πŸ‘ 160    πŸ” 46    πŸ’¬ 17    πŸ“Œ 8
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UK General Election Odds: How Far Can The Green Party Go Under Zack Polanski? The environmental party are favourites to win the Gorton and Denton by-election....

As the Gorton and Denton by-election odds move further towards the Greens, my latest for @gamblingcom.bsky.social analyses how far the party can rise under Zack Polanski.

www.gambling.com/uk/news/uk-g...

12.02.2026 16:07 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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If the US did what the French are doing right now, the effects on Twitter and Facebook would be enormous.

09.02.2026 21:39 β€” πŸ‘ 885    πŸ” 290    πŸ’¬ 17    πŸ“Œ 11

The idiot commentariat are claiming Starmer never had a plan to be leader, wasn't in the running, until McSweeney talked him into it.

They really do think the public is thick, and has no memory.

09.02.2026 16:49 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Agreed. And the fact we know Russia had a degree of success (likely growing) in both 2016/2020 into hacking US electoral systems.

09.02.2026 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, Trump depicting the Obamas as apes is racist, vile. As ever.

But ffs, don't buy into the distraction! They do this every time.

The Epstein files have him on the ropes like never before. Stay with it.

06.02.2026 22:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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Next Labour Leader Betting: Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband Rising Rapidly The storm clouds are gathering for Prime Minister Keir Starmer....

My latest on the Labour leadership for @gamblingcom.bsky.social

Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband are rising rapidly in the betting.

www.gambling.com/uk/news/next...

05.02.2026 17:44 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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Next Labour Leader Betting: Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband Rising Rapidly The storm clouds are gathering for Prime Minister Keir Starmer....

My latest on the Labour leadership for @gamblingcom.bsky.social

Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband are rising rapidly in the betting.

www.gambling.com/uk/news/next...

05.02.2026 17:44 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Agree with all of that.

My point is there is no meaningful evidence to credit Morgan McSweeney for Labour's temporary resurgence.

The Tories collapsed, and non-right wing voted tactically to remove them everywhere.

05.02.2026 10:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Not especially and/or due to MM.

Starmer had little to beat to become leader.

Any halfway competent opposition would have won a majority against those Tories.

That Starmer as PM was instantly unpopular shows how shallow their support was.

04.02.2026 15:00 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Starmer had little to beat to become leader, and did so by flat-out lying.

Any halfway competent opposition would have won a majority against those Tories.

That Starmer as PM was instantly unpopular shows how shallow their support was.

04.02.2026 14:59 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

On Newsnight, Nick Watt proclaimed Morgan McSweeney's remarkable achievement in (a) winning Starmer the leadership and (b) winning a majority.

A perfect illustration of the self-perpetuating Westminster Village bubble, and inflated importance of political technologists.

04.02.2026 14:57 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

Agreed

03.02.2026 23:03 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Epstein Document Dump Backs Up Key Claims in Her Books, International Elite Network | Sarah Kendzior
YouTube video by The Mark Thompson Show Epstein Document Dump Backs Up Key Claims in Her Books, International Elite Network | Sarah Kendzior

If you're late to the game or just want more info do yourself a favor and listen to this interview with Mark Thompson and Sarah Kendzior. She's been sounding the alarm about the Epstein web & TOC for well over a decade..
youtu.be/x-G5wIDjZb0?...

03.02.2026 14:18 β€” πŸ‘ 98    πŸ” 41    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 3

Yes for sure. Hard to think Zahawi in particular won't deter true fascists

02.02.2026 20:12 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes the far Right is always liable to split. I don't think they have the numbers in that constituency, regardless.

02.02.2026 19:15 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Gorton And Denton By-Election Odds And Betting Tips: Big Opportunity For Greens The Greater Manchester constituency will head to the polls on February 26....

ICYMI: My preview of the #GortonAndDenton by-election for @gamblingcom.bsky.social

The Greens are now odds-on favourites.

www.gambling.com/uk/news/gort...

02.02.2026 18:23 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

How untouchable is Morgan McSweeney? The new Dominic Cummings?

02.02.2026 17:01 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0