Brian Fremeau

This means that a team in the top 5-10 range would expect to have won only 9.2 games against Ohio State's schedule to date.

Wins above/below what a top 5-10 FBS team would expect to have against the schedule faced through Week 12, per FEI:
+1.4 Indiana
+1.4 Texas A&M
+0.8 Ohio State
+0.7 Georgia
+0.5 Ole Miss
+0.5 BYU
+0.3 Oregon
+0.2 Texas Tech
+0.2 Alabama
-0.2 Oklahoma

This suggests to me that the new strength of record metric they are using this year is having an impact bsky.app/profile/bcfr...

Three scatterplots representing the correlation of CFP committee top-25 rankings (x-axis) with FEI-based strength of record ratings.

I'm pretty sure the CFP doesn't specifically use FEI data in its deliberations, but I've tracked the correlation of CFP rankings with my strength of record ratings since 2014. The correlations are stronger this year than they have been previously: bcftoys.com/2025-cfp

Through Week 12 in 2025, FBS teams are 118-4 against FCS opponents (.967), with an average margin of 33.1 points. Power 4 teams are 56-0, with an average margin of 42.8 points.

More FBS vs FCS data since 2007: bcftoys.com/fcs

Will Power 4 college football teams continue to play FCS opponents? It’s complicated This season, 61 of the 67 teams in the four power conferences are playing at least one game against an FCS team.

Chipped in with a bit of data for this @ralphdrussoath.bsky.social
piece on the current and future state of FBS vs FCS games: www.nytimes.com/athletic/681...

College Football Playoff Selection Committee Prepares for 2025-26 Season - College Football Playoff The College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee met recently in preparation for the upcoming season. Following the first year of the 12-team Playoff, the

CFP SOR metric "...rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team [and] will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team."
collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2025/8/...

Yep, the PVE (unadjusted efficiency) doesn't change, but the GR (opponent-adjusted efficiency) does change based on updates to opponent ratings. GR/FEI ratings aren't based on "at the time of the game", but rather "as of now" adjustments.

90th+ percentile FEI game ratings (opponent-adjusted possession efficiency) vs FBS opponents through Week 12:
7x - Ohio State
6x - Georgia, Indiana, Miami, Notre Dame, Utah
5x - Alabama, Oregon, Utah, Texas Tech
4x - Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Game ratings for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-gr

Weekly ratings progression for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-wfei

Screenshot of FEI ratings top-15 teams through Week 12

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 12 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for 1 team that has played eight FBS opponents, 5% for 108 teams that have played nine, **0% for 27 teams that have played ten**.

One of the things I like about this data set and visualizing all 136 teams this way is that it is good reminder that most teams play within a pretty big range of outcomes each week.

San Diego State has the largest range between its best game rating (.949 vs Nevada) and its worst (.050 vs Hawaii)
bcftoys.com/2025-gr#san-...

Scatterplots detailing game ratings, opponent-adjusted single game possession efficiency results for every team in the 2025 college football season.

What's under the FEI hood? Game ratings.

Data representation of annual FBS vs FBS game averages of points per game, possessions per game, and points per possession

FBS vs FBS Trends through Week 12...
52.5 points/game (fewest since 2009)
23.9 possessions/game (fewest on record)
2.20 points/possession (about the same as 2024)

A dataviz of six scatterplots representing the correlation of weekly FEI ratings to final FEI ratings. Week 12 (.986 correlation) is highlighted.

We are here

I think good faith arguments can be made to put a number of very good teams in almost any order this year. And good faith arguments can also be made about what should be the most and least important criteria to sort them out too!

Almost caught at vaught

Texas Tech's defense leads the nation in points per drive allowed (0.85) on non-garbage drives through Week 11. Only four teams since 2007 finished the year allowing fewer:

0.49 - 2011 Alabama
0.69 - 2021 Georgia
0.79 - 2008 USC
0.79 - 2009 Nebraska

bcftoys.com/2025-ppd

With the exception of end of game/half kneeldowns, every Ohio State offensive drive this season has gained yardage. The lowest end of season "busted drive" (drive that earns 0 or negative yards) rate I have on record is also Ohio State (1.6% in 2021). bcftoys.com/2025-ofei

Piling up close losses, 3-6 (2-6 vs FBS) Penn State is still hanging around the F+ top-25. The best F+ rating for a below-.500 team at the end of the year was 2010 Georgia who finished 6-7 (5-7 vs FBS) and 18th overall.
bcftoys.com/2025-fplus

Good thoughts, thanks, keep 'em coming!

Something to look at for sure. Are you objecting to the FEI rating for these teams being misleading or not passing a sniff test? It's high on Utah, yes, but the Utes have been dominating several teams way more so than FEI expects them to.

Weekly ratings progression for every team: bcftoys.com/2025-wfei

Screenshot of FEI ratings top-15 teams through Week 11

FEI ratings and supporting metrics are updated through Week 11 results: bcftoys.com/2025-fei
Preseason projections carry 11% weight for teams that have played eight FBS opponents, 5% if they have played nine, **0% if they have played ten**.

Does it seem like there are more close games this year? It's because there are!

43.3% of P4vsP4 games have been decided by 1 score, highest rate for P4/P5/BCS games in at least 20 years. Avg score margin is 14.4 ppg, lowest since 2009.

TWELVE

There were 12 total possessions in Saturday's Army-Temple game, six for each team, fewer than in any FBS game since at least 2007. (Five games since 2007 had featured 13 total game possessions: bcftoys.com/possessions).

Notre Dame Stadium at dawn against a blue gray November sky

Clocked in for college football game day

LOVE this awesome and insightful thread on exactly how ESPN's college football FPI Strength of Record ratings are calculated. #datatransparency4ever