J. Doyne Farmer

Brad Carr Podcast Self-Improvement Podcast · Updated Weekly · Brad Carr interviews the world's best leaders. Previous guests include Navy SEALs, #1 New York Times bestselling authors, CEOs, and more. Listen anywhere y...

You can also listen at
Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/episode/49lm5GZDYlVny1DyVICaoC?si=ydM-skn1Sk6wvIExGVCd8A
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b...

YouTube video by Brad Carr Doyne Farmer: Roulette, Chaos Theory, Global Economics, Oxford University

I had a chat with Brad Carr about how to bear roulette and predict the economy - you watch us talking at www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbdU...
#ComplexityEconomics #Complexity

Job vacancy for Post Doctoral Research Associate in Economics of Technological Change at Oxford. Deadline: 5 Jan 2026.

We’re recruiting a Postdoctoral Researcher to join a new Oxford Martin programme led by renowned innovation scholars: Prof @maxroser.bsky.social, Prof @doynefarmer.bsky.social & Dr @francoislafond.bsky.social.

Help shape global insights into how technologies evolve.

Link in thread ⬇️

We too are very excited about Karolina Bassa's new paper with Rama Cont on Dynamics of sovereign debt: credit risk and sustainability analysis
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...

Cities for everyone In this talk, Rafael Prieto-Curiel will explore the challenges of making cities work for everyone. Previously, Rafael worked on urban dynamics as part of…

In our next #ComplexityEconomics seminar on 12 Nov, Rafael Prieto-Curiel @csh.ac.at will explore the challenges of making cities work for everyone while facing dual challenges of managing both expansion and contraction at a time of rapid future population expansion
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/citie...

We're looking for a postdoc for our new project on forecasting technological change - more details below

Agent-based models move into the economic mainstream In the 1980s and ’90s, SFI played laboratory to a promising new method known as agent-based modeling. In ensuing decades, agent-based models (ABMs) proliferated across many fields, including economics...

What if one model could realistically predict the economy of an entire country? The entire world? A month-long working group, co-organized by SFI External Professor @doynefarmer.bsky.social, made the case that agent-based models may bring this vision to life:

How to improve LLM responses in domains we can’t score? Implicit signals from structured dialogue help LLM agents edit their own contexts, improving responses dramatically.

“Self-evolving expertise in complex non-verifiable subject domains: dialogue as implicit meta-RL”.

arxiv.org/pdf/2510.15772

Come work with us! We’re hiring a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Food System Transformations at the University of Oxford.

This role is part of an ambitious, interdisciplinary project exploring rapid food system transformations. More details here: my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...

Uncovering utility functions from observational data The algorithm, Preference Extraction and Reward Learning (PEARL) is able to uncover a representation of the utility function that best rationalises…

Our #Complexity Economics Seminar series is back! We start next Wednesday 22 October with a talk from Cambridge University's @martagrzeskiewicz.bsky.social presenting an algorithm for uncovering a utility function based on observational consumption data.
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/uncov...

Quantitative agent-based models: a promising alternative for macroeconomics Abstract. Agent-based models (ABMs) are dynamic computer simulations that abandon utility maximization and instead assume that agents are boundedly rationa

I have a new paper out in @oxrepjournal.bsky.social explaining Agent-based models #ABMs and their advantages and disadvantages in comparison to standard models.

doi.org/10.1093/oxre...

This was great fun!

🚨 Fresh from ArXiv:
“Comparing Data Assimilation and Likelihood-Based Inference on Latent State Estimation in Agent-Based Models”
with @marcopangallo.bsky.social, @c0rrad0.bsky.social, & @gdfm.bsky.social
👉 arxiv.org/abs/2509.17625

A Quantitative Model of Sovereign Credit Risk and Debt Sustainability

Coming up on 1 October @wifo.bsky.social: Karolina Bassa will present on the impact of fiscal and public investment policies on the sovereign's borrowing cost and credit risk in the presence of stochastic output shocks and credit-sensitive funding from investors👇
www.wifo.ac.at/en/event/433...

@doynefarmer.bsky.social spoke to Gregory McNiff at the New Books Network about his research and Making Sense of Chaos.

You can listen at newbooksnetwork.com/making-sense...

#Complexity #ComplexityEconomics

I am at New York climate week, and at a reception put on by @ember-energy.org, who does great work in promoting the green transition. I had the pleasure of riding in an all electric boat built by Flux Marine - it moved silently through the water to the Statue of Liberty and back at an amazing speed!

Additional role for for @ericbeinhocker.bsky.social  announced

Eric has been appointed to the Science Board of @sfiscience.bsky.social as its Chair

The role advises on scientific strategy for the Institute.

https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/eric-beinhocker-to-chair-santa-fe-institute-science-board

My summer at @sfiscience.bsky.social is coming to an end. Along with the people, I will miss the views and hiking in the hills. Watching the moonrise from Castle Rock is something to be recommended.

See you again next year!

Economic models and frameworks to guide climate policy Abstract. Reaching net-zero emissions will involve a structural transformation of the global economy. The transition is complicated by deep uncertainty abo

New guide for #climate & #finance ministries on the most effective ways to model Net-Zero Transition was just published in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy @oxfordunipress.bsky.social @cameronhepburn.bsky.social @doynefarmer.bsky.social @inetoxford.bsky.social
academic.oup.com/oxrep/advanc...

Sprint to Seventh Carbon Budget Commences A project to fill macroeconomic and distributional analysis evidence gaps has started at INET Oxford this summer.

Interested in climate change and the UK #CarbonBudget? Watch this space! @doynefarmer.bsky.social is heading up our latest project to fill evidence gaps ahead of the UK Government setting its Seventh Carbon Budget next year
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/sprint-...

Most Effective Models To Guide The Net-Zero Transition A new guide for climate and finance ministries on the most effective ways to model the Net-Zero Transition has been published in the Oxford Review of…

▶New guide to modelling the net zero transition is published;
▶Gives clarity to a plethora of available modelling options becoming increasingly relevant

Led by @cameronhepburn.bsky.social

www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/most-ef...

Glad to hear you guys are finding my book useful. You can find all my papers on my website, doynefarmer.com. This includes the paper mentioned coupling an epidemiological ABM to an economic ABM with Marco Pangallo as first author. Thanks for your interest.

We're in the third of four weeks of our Economic Agent-Based Models: Crossing Over the Tipping Point workshops at @sfiscience.bsky.social. Thanks @j0mrn.bsky.social and Christian Diem for helping to organize. We've had so many great speakers already!

TGLS: Fiscal Policy for the Future seminar - Professor Doyne Farmer Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World

I will be giving the New Zealand Treasury Fiscal Policy for the Future seminar - you can find more information at www.eventbrite.co.nz/e/tgls-fisca...

My latest paper with @cameronhepburn.bsky.social and @bapeterj.bsky.social among others is now available in @oxrepjournal.bsky.social

AI For Trade — Center for Collective Learning

Sustainable decision-making requires better foresight.
Participate in the AI for Trade Challenge and build models that anticipate international trade flows.
📅 Deadline: Oct 31, 2025
🏆 $6K in prizes
More: centerforcollectivelearning.org/aifortrade

Zach Parolin Appointed Oxford Professor of Social Policy, Inequality… Zach Parolin will direct the Economics, Inequality and Opportunity Programme at INET Oxford, which seeks to understand the drivers and implications of…

This fall, I'll join the University of Oxford as Professor of Social Policy, Inequality & Opportunity. I'll also become the Director of the Economics, Inequality and Opportunity Program at INET Oxford, and will join @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social as a Professorial Fellow.

Special Issue Captures Vibrant Moment in Complexity Economics An edition of the Journal of Economic Behavior co-edited by INET Oxford shows how complexity economics can answer the policy questions of the day

Special Issue Captures Vibrant Moment in #ComplexityEconomics

Editorial team:
@jennabednar.bsky.social @sfiscience.bsky.social @maria-drc.bsky.social @doynefarmer.bsky.social @francoislafond.bsky.social
+J.Kaszowska-Mojsa, P.Mealy, M.Pangallo & A.Pichler

#EconSky

www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/vibrant...

Lessons from chaos theory on Trump tariff bottlenecks - Risk.net Forecasting the ripple effects of trade policies presents a special challenge

Lessons from chaos theory on Trump tariff bottlenecks - feat. @doynefarmer.bsky.social @inet-complexity.bsky.social

"Farmer looks at economies as complex networks, drawing on the ideas of chaos theory to model interactions between the players."

#EconSky @risk.net

www.risk.net/our-take/796...

Another job opportunity. I'm looking for a part time research assistant to help us explore the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget.

my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...