Evan Miyakawa

INJURY MISFORTUNE

This graph shows how much production each team has lost due to injuries this season, based on player ratings at EvanMiya.com.

USC, Oregon, Washington, and Missouri have been pummeled by injuries 👇

It's only February, but @norlander.bsky.social and I are predicting tournament outcomes for 15 notable teams.

Let us know what we got wrong ⬇️

THE KILL SHOT

This graph tracks double digit scoring runs in games (10-0 or better) for teams over the course of the season. Here's all EvanMiya.com top 75 teams in terms of runs scored and runs conceded, adjusted for strength of opponent.

👀 Michigan, Zona, Florida

RESUME QUALITY

Here are the teams with the best resumes in the sport, according to Resume Quality at EvanMiya.com.

1 seeds - UConn, Duke, Michigan, Iowa State
2 seeds - Nebraska, Arizona, Vandy, Purdue
Squeaking in - Yale, Baylor, Cal, Texas A&M

The EvanMiya College Basketball Show | Subscribe The EvanMiya College Basketball Show is a weekly college basketball podcast covering the biggest national storylines and emerging trends men’s college basketball. Hosted by Evan Miyakawa — PhD statist...

You can subscribe to the show in all the usual places, including Apple, Spotify, and YouTube: evanmiyashow.transistor.fm/subscribe

Trailer / Intro | The EvanMiya College Basketball Show | Episode 1 Welcome to the EvanMiya College Basketball Show.The EvanMiya College Basketball Show is a weekly college basketball podcast covering the biggest national storylines and emerging trends men’s college b...

🚨 The EvanMiya College Basketball Show is officially live🎙️

I'm hosting a weekly CBB show covering national storylines and recent trends, featuring multiple guests each week — plus a touch of analytics.

First full episode drops on Tuesday morning! share.transistor.fm/s/7e1c4c82

EvanMiya CBB Analytics Advanced college basketball analytics used widely by coaches, journalists, and fans.

Bayesian Performance Rating predicts player impact going forward using box score statistics, advanced team impact metrics, and historical data for each player. Players in the upper right of the graph are expected to be the most valuable going forward. You can find full ratings at EvanMiya.com.

PLAYER VALUE GRAPH

This graph shows the top college basketball players in terms of per-possession offensive value (X axis) and defensive value (Y axis), according to BPR at EvanMiya.com 👇

EFFICIENCY LANDSCAPE:

Here is the current predicted team efficiency landscape for college basketball, based on ratings from EvanMiya.com, split into tiers 👇

Priors still do get included even as the season progresses, it's a predictive metric trying to forecast who will play the best going forward.

How you feeling now?

We have a gargantuan matchup tonight between Gonzaga and Michigan, both ranked in the top 4 at EvanMiya.com.

Key stat: Under Dusty May, Michigan is 15-0 when their opponent shoots under 33.5% from three and has 8 or fewer steals. They are just 1-5 when their opponent hits both of these marks.

Additionally, Duke's defense has been stellar when Ngongba is on the floor. Only Dame Sarr has a better Adjusted Team Defensive Efficiency, which measures how many points per 100 possessions the defense is giving up with each player on the court, adjusted for opponent strength.

Duke currently has two of the top three most valuable players in the country, per BPR at EvanMiya.com.

Cameron Boozer leads the nation, in part because of his ridiculous stat-line. And Patrick Ngongba has been a dependable secondary star, averaging 13/7 on 70% FG.

@norlander.bsky.social

Purdue with an impressive first half "Avalanche" (20-0 run) against #15 Texas Tech!

There have only been 12 total 20-0 runs in college basketball this season.

Here are the best wins any team has had this year according to Resume Quality at EvanMiya.com, in order:

Arizona @ UConn
Alabama vs Illinois
Arizona vs Florida
Purdue @ Alabama
Michigan St. vs Kentucky
Alabama @ St. John's
UConn vs BYU

Arizona owns 2 of the top 3.

It's been 332 days since Michigan State had 6 different players hit a three-pointer in a game (Dec 21, 2024 vs FAU)

Tonight against Kentucky, the Spartans have 6 players who have connected from deep, all in the first 14 minutes of the game.

Bayesian Performance Rating: The Best Player Metric in CBB New updates and a full model technical explainer

You can read more about Box BPR here, which is a part of the overall Bayesian Performance Rating calculation: blog.evanmiya.com/i/176370266/...

Box BPR is a college-specific version of Box Plus-Minus, trained on years of college data to determine which stats add the most value towards winning. There's also some weighting towards zero (D1 avg) for players who haven't played as many possessions so that we don't overreact to small sample sizes

Here are the players with the best statistical output in college basketball two weeks into the season, according to Box BPR at EvanMiya.com, adjusted for opponent strength.

Cameron Boozer is head and shoulders above everyone else.

Notable team movement from the preseason at EvanMiya.com:

🔼Indiana 42nd to 20th
🔼Georgia 40 to 23
🔼Saint Mary's 43 to 24
🔼Syracuse 66 to 39

🔽UCLA 10 to 26
🔽Michigan State 22 to 33
🔽Oregon 23 to 40
🔽Miss State 28 to 48
🔽Creighton 31 to 50
🔽Texas A&M 45 to 73

UConn takes on BYU tonight in a top 12 battle according to EvanMiya.com.

UConn has dominated an easy schedule, but BYU will be their first real test of the season. The trio of Saunders, Dybantsa, and Wright is a handful.

Predicted score: UConn 77, BYU 74.

Tonight's blockbuster matchup between Purdue and Alabama is genuinely one of the most enticing non-con matchups we could possibly have.

The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?

Predicted score Bama 84-82.

2025 Lineup Projections and Rankings Handing out lineup awards before the season begins, what can go wrong?

I have lineup projections up at EvanMiya.com for almost every possible lineup we could see in college basketball this year.

Here are the best predicted lineups in every statistical category: blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-lineu...

2025 Preseason Ceiling and Floor Team Outcomes Using preseason simulations to get best and worst case scenarios for every team

I simulated the season 10,000 times to determine the best-case and worst-case outcomes for all 365 CBB teams, using the preseason uncertainty estimates specific to each team.

You can find the results for every single conference here 👇 blog.evanmiya.com/p/2025-prese...

EvanMiya CBB Analytics Advanced college basketball analytics used widely by coaches, journalists, and fans.

You can find the full ratings history on the Player Ratings page at EvanMiya.com.

BPR measures impact per-possession on offense and defense while a player is on the court. As such, players like Kemba with tremendous full-season stats who played tons of games/minutes would be rated more highly if this were a cumulative season stat.

Bayesian Performance Rating: The Best Player Metric in CBB New updates and a full model technical explainer

I just a full writeup of how BPR works over at my blog: blog.evanmiya.com/p/bayesian-p...

The top 30 individual seasons in college basketball since 2010, using Bayesian Performance Rating at EvanMiya.com. BPR quantifies per-possession value added through box stats and team impact metrics ⤵️