Marc Hooghe

Is it possible to predict electoral abstention on the individual level? A preregistered test on forecasting the effects of abolishing compulsory voting in Belgium There is a vast literature on determinants of electoral turnout that allows us to forecast which groups of the population will turn out to vote and wh…

Theoretical models allow us to predict rather accurately who will turn out to vote, especially in a low turnout context like the Flemish region of Belgium. Results of the individual level forecasting model were pre-registered three months for the elections.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Is it possible to predict electoral abstention on the individual level? A preregistered test on forecasting the effects of abolishing compulsory voting in Belgium There is a vast literature on determinants of electoral turnout that allows us to forecast which groups of the population will turn out to vote and wh…

Was het mogelijk om de gevolgen van de afschaffing van de opkomstplicht in Vlaams Gewest te voorzien? Wel ja. @dieterstiers.bsky.social maakte in augustus een model over wie thuis zou blijven, met openbare resultaten. In oktober bleek het model zeer valide.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Aangezien het om relatieve verhoudingen gaat, toont de figuur mooi aan dat Les Engagés hun score bijna verdubbeld hebben, terwijl MR ongeveer de helft heeft bijgewonnen. Daarom lijkt de score Les Engagés inderdaad groter (dubbel zo groot als in 2019).

'l'Etat PS' komt niet terug De publieke opinie in Wallonië schoof op een structurele manier naar rechts. En het traditionele beeld van een ‘links Wallonië' komt niet onmiddellijk terug.

De mythe van Wallonië als ‘l’Etat PS’ kan in de vuilbak. In 2024 verschoof de publieke opinie er op een structurele manier naar rechts.

💥 Nieuw onderzoek over de kiezersstromen in Wallonië van @dieterstiers.bsky.social‬ en @marchooghe.bsky.social‬

Een bijzonder scherpe daling van verkiezingsdeelname in het Vlaams Gewest. De resultaten bevestigen wat er 50 jaar geleden in Nederland gebeurde (Irwin, 1974): minder deelname van vrouwen en personen met lage politieke interesse. Vooral de (linkse en rechtse) radicale partijen verliezen kiezers.

The abolishment of compulsory voting in the Flemish Region reduced turnout by 26 %. Remarkably, our results are completely in line with the analysis of Galen Irwin (1974) on the abolishment of compulsory voting in The Netherlands. Just like in Irwin's article, turnout dropped especially among women.

While some media reports whine about an alleged liberal bias among high school teachers, this new study by Sari Verachtert and @dieterstiers.bsky.social shows they tend to be very moderate, they eschew extreme parties and positions, and they cherish neutrality in the classroom.

Hebben leerkrachten echt een specifiek ideologisch profiel? Sari Verachtert en @dieterstiers.bsky.social tonen in een onderzoek bij Vlaamse leerkrachten aan dat ze ideologisch gematigd zijn, extreme partijen vermijden, en neutraliteit belangrijk vinden.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Who decides what are second-order elections? A study of ticket-splitting in simultaneous federal and regional elections in Belgium The idea that regional elections automatically could be considered as second-order elections has been criticized in the recent literature, as the rise of regional authority implies that the regiona...

🇧🇪New article!
"Who decides what are second-order elections? A study of ticket-splitting in simultaneous federal and regional elections in Belgium" by @dieterstiers.bsky.social and @marchooghe.bsky.social

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Who decides what are second-order elections? A study of ticket-splitting in simultaneous federal and regional elections in Belgium The idea that regional elections automatically could be considered as second-order elections has been criticized in the recent literature, as the rise of regional authority implies that the regiona...

In Belgium, federal and regional elections are held simultaneously. What does this imply for the traditional second-order model? @dieterstiers.bsky.social and I have asked voters, and the result is that for most voters, both levels are equally important.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

De 'democratische vrede' (Kant) impliceert dat een democratisch land nooit een agressie-oorlog zal starten, maar tegelijk is er de morele plicht de democratie te verdedigen: "Guerre aux tyrans !". Een klassieke, maar helaas ook zeer actuele discussie. In het april-nummer van Samenleving&Politiek.

💥BAM!💥

𝐖𝐞 𝐡𝐞𝐛𝐛𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐚𝐚𝐩'𝐧𝐞𝐧 𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐧

👉Ontdek 'em via www.sampol.be/latest

Very happy that our study (with @marchooghe.bsky.social and Michael Lewis-Beck) is now a #TopCitedArticle in Politics & Policy!

In the study, we examine whether the electoral college grew more disproportional over the last century. See: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

🌟 New article 📢
👥 Martin Okolikj @mokolikj.bsky.social, Marc Hooghe @marchooghe.bsky.social & Michael Lewis-Beck
👉 The Compleat Economic Voter in Belgium: Channels of Accountability in a Complex Multilevel Government System
📘 The Journal of Politics
🔗 doi.org/10.1086/735633

Peut-on expliquer les résultats des élections de juin 2024 en Région wallonne ? Avec @dieterstiers.bsky.social nous montrons dans un nouvel article paru dans French Politics que l'opinion publique évolue bel et bien vers une position idéologique plus à droite.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

What explains the June 2024 election results in the Walloon Region? @dieterstiers.bsky.social and I show in a new article in French Politics that public opinion indeed shifts toward a more right-wing ideological position.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

The Role of Education in Political Information Processing and Correct Voting: Inequality at the Voting Booth? - Political Behavior It has been well established that the effectiveness and quality of political representation is unequally distributed in Western democracies. Scholars have frequently warned about the rise of ‘diploma ...

🎉 Excited to announce our new publication in Political Behavior!

📖 "The Role of Education in Political Information Processing and Correct Voting: Inequality at the Voting Booth?" sheds light on how education shapes democratic representation.

Read it here: doi.org/10.1007/s111...