David Lubin

Will stablecoins help developing countries? It’s complicated The GENIUS Act means that, for good or ill, stablecoins are here to stay. Their ability to facilitate capital flows in and out of emerging economies presents a mixed bag for policymakers.

Are stablecoins good for emerging economies? Not an easy question but at least the news is not all bad. My piece for Chatham House…

Milei’s Argentina shows where South America might be heading Upcoming elections in the region could see a shift to the right, increasing the likelihood that other countries might follow Argentina in delivering painful fiscal reforms.

However unique Argentina’s problems are, what Milei is doing there has very interesting implications for the rest of the region. My piece for @chathamhouse.org…

"Beijing thinks BRICS is a very important institution, but in some respects BRICS challenges China's bid for primacy. This is true in the context of a BRICS currency."

@davidlubin.bsky.social on the BRICS summit in Brazil and how China views the organisation, via @france24.com.

"BRICS membership offers a soft way of engaging in strategic balancing. For many countries, BRICS membership is a way of tilting towards Beijing without doing much to upset Washington."

@davidlubin.bsky.social on the appeal of BRICS to non-western countries and economies, via BBC News.

Europe could win the battle for the future of digital money The EU’s embrace of both a central bank digital currency and private cryptocurrencies could be a more promising strategy than either China’s or the US’s exclusive focus on one or the other.

The EU’s embrace of both a central bank digital currency and private cryptocurrencies could be a more promising strategy than either China’s or the US’s exclusive focus on one or the other, writes @davidlubin.bsky.social.

If Trump wants an economy like China’s, he’ll need a revolution In calling for fewer imports, more exports and less consumption, the US president sounds like Xi Jinping. But are Americans willing to make the necessary sacrifices, wonders David Lubin.

My piece for @chathamhouse.org on Trump’s ‘cultural revolution’: he is doing a better job of echoing China’s politics of the 1960s than responding to the China of the 2020s…

Bearing the brunt: Asia’s response to Trump YouTube video by Chatham House

What next for Asia? Here’s an hour of discussion with Malaysia’s trade minister, Tengku Zafrul Aziz, together with my Chatham House colleagues Ben Bland, Yu Jie and me. Enjoy.

Independent Thinking: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? Isabelle Mateos y Lago and David Lubin join Bronwen Maddox from the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington DC to discuss the instability in the US dollar.

If you’re not bored yet by talk about the dollar, here’s this week’s @chathamhouse.org podcast with me and Isabelle Mateos y Lago in conversation with Bronwen Maddox. Enjoy.

The US dollar’s role in the international monetary system is now dangerously in flux The argument that the erosion of the dollar’s global status could benefit the US is gaining traction in Washington. That move would be a needless act of self-harm.

JD Vance et al think the dollar’s reserve currency status infects the US with a form of ‘Dutch Disease’, and should therefore be undermined. Terrible idea. My piece for Chatham House…

Independent Thinking: Are Donald Trump’s tariffs the end of globalization? Jason Furman, Dame DeAnne Julius and David Lubin discuss the impact of Donald Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs on the United States and the global economy.

Here’s this week’s @chathamhouse.org podcast about the aftermath of ‘Liberation Day’, where I’m in conversation with Jason Furman, Dame DeAnne Julius and Bronwen Maddox. Enjoy.

Independent Thinking: How closely is China watching the US? Yu Jie, William Matthews and David Lubin join guest host Ben Bland to discuss the view from China now that Donald Trump is in charge.

This week’s @chathamhouse.org podcast is all about China, with my colleagues Yu Jie, William Matthews, Ben Bland and me. Enjoy.

Webinar - Debt and deficits in emerging markets: South Africa, Indonesia and Brazil - The good, the bad and the ugly? <p><strong>Time: </strong>8:00 AM Eastern Time</p> <figure style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://d34dkm9pj0t75w.cloudfront.net/production/uploads/redactor_assets/pictures/57202/GSP_logo_white_...

A great discussion here about public debt in Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil: the good, the bad and the ugly?! Quick registration to access the video. Enjoy.

China’s ‘two sessions’: What did we learn about the Chinese economy? With China’s large trade surplus likely to remain intact and the Trump administration aiming to turn the US trade deficit into a surplus, the world is facing a ‘clash of mercantilisms’.

China’s ’two sessions’, just ended, delivered way less support to consumers than it might have. Why? Read my latest piece for Chatham House.

Trump’s ‘extreme pivot’ to Moscow is irreversible | World in 10 YouTube video by Times Radio

Here’s 20 minutes of comments I gave to The Times ‘World In 10’ podcast on Trump and Russia, Trump and tariffs, and a few other things. Enjoy.

Nigeria’s economy needs the naira to stay competitive To secure long-term growth, the government must resist the temptation to fight inflation by letting the naira strengthen against the dollar.

The Nigerian currency is now more competitive than it’s been for 25 years. Best to keep it that way: much better to have an undervalued rather than an ovrrvalued naira. My piece for Chatham House…

The economics of the new Monroe Doctrine President Trump’s actions seem to indicate a hemispheric US foreign policy emerging. There is a bleak logic behind that approach.

Trump is breathing life back into the Monroe Doctrine to build an international order based on regional spheres of influence. Is it rational? The data say yes. Here’s my piece for Chatham House…

The world’s exporters search for new customers if Trump cuts off trade With China also reducing imports, demand from the voracious American consumer will be hard to replace

"Exporters find themselves caught in a battle of mercantilisms, with both China and the US seeking to increase exports relative to imports" - GEF Senior Research Fellow @davidlubin.bsky.social quoted in an FT opinion piece by @alanbeattie.bsky.social. Read the full article here: on.ft.com/3CY2w6i

Russia’s economic dilemmas give Trump important leverage in negotiations on Ukraine. But will he use it? Putin’s government considers inflation an existential threat. But Trump’s preoccupation with China may prevent the US exploiting Russian weakness.

Russia. Economic overheating and a shortage of dollars give Putin a big headache. Trump has tools to make Putin’s problem worse, but will he use them? Here’s my piece for Chatham House.

Emerging Markets’ Two-Way Traffic Financially fragile economies are pursuing market-friendly reforms, while some stronger emerging market economies are doing the opposite

Here’s a piece I wrote for the IMF’s magazine, Finance and Development. I’m saying that while a great number of financially fragile emerging economies are pursuing disciplined economic reform these days, a number of less fragile ones are losing policy discipline fast…

Donald Trump’s policies risk making the US dollar a source of global instability Although Trump favours a weaker exchange rate, his policies are likely to have the opposite effect. The risk is that the US dollar could become too strong, which is bad news for the global economy.

Why has the dollar strengthened so much since Trump was reelected? What’s likely to follow? Read here!