Center for Political Studies

Voters credit governors—not Biden White House—for clean energy projects The Biden administration's historic multibillion-dollar investment in clean energy and manufacturing transformed local economies across the United States—but it does not translate into political credi...

@agazmararian.bsky.social: Federal leadership can be lost in the "fog of messaging." Gazmararian et al find Biden-Era clean energy investment policies had limited political returns: Voters overwhelmingly attributed new clean energy projects to their governors. news.umich.edu/voters-credi...

The historical pattern in the House is that the incumbent president’s party loses seats in the midterm election. There have been 20 midterm elections in the post-World War II period, and the president’s party has lost seats in 18 of them. The exceptions were in 1998 when Bill Clinton was being impeached and 2002 after the 9/11 attacks when George W. Bush was in office. The range of losses was from 4 in 1962 in John F. Kennedy’s presidency after the Cuban missile crisis to 63 in 2010 during Barack Obama’s second term, after dissatisfaction with the economy and the debates and passage of the Affordable Care Act. In the 2018 midterm election during Donald Trump’s first term, the Republican party lost 40 seats in the House. The bar graph shows midterm house seat losses for the president's party in all but 3 of midterm house elections since 1934.

Michael Traugott: The historical pattern in the House is that the incumbent president’s party loses seats in the midterm election.The president’s party gained seats in only 2 midterms after WWII-- after Clinton's impeachment and the 9/11 attacks when Bush was in office. cpsblog.isr.umich.edu?p=3590

It’s now official. I’ll be publishing my first book, Respectability Politics, w/ @uchicagopress.bsky.social!

Proud to join a press w/ a strong lineage in Black studies & Black politics, including Cohen’s Boundaries of Blackness, which has deeply inspired my work.

Now to get these revisions done.

"Revisiting Ideology Measures in Political Surveys" by Ken Kollman and John E. Jackson. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Join us for Research Ethics Day! Today we're featuring session 3, Ensuring Research Integrity in a Changing Environment.

Speakers:
Dr. Kimberly Kirkpatrick @umnresearch.bsky.social
Dr. Arthur Lupia @umichresearch.bsky.social
Dr. Susan Garfinkel (Research Integrity Partners)

z.umn.edu/RED26s

You are invited to join us for a conversation with Dr. Cesi Cruz of the University of Michigan, centering on efforts to counter political polarization with a focus on her research in the Philippines. Lunch will be provided. Register now! bit.ly/4tA463R

Bright announcement for ICPSR Summer Program scholarships with a March 1 application deadline and over $400K available.

Scholarship applications the 2026 ICPSR Summer Program close Sunday! Over $400k in scholarships available! Apply by March 1. For more details: myumi.ch/ICPSRscholarships

#SumProg26 #ICPSR #QuantitativeMethods #ScholarshipOpportunities #GraduateStudies #DataScienceEducation #ResearchTraining

Are Americans polarized in their attitudes toward higher education? 🤔

Using some @electionstudies.bsky.social data, the answer seems to be: Yes, but not dramatically so, and there's a tendency for more experience with higher ed. to be associated w/ more positive ratings. 👍

Tomorrow!

Screenshot of Bad Bunny Superbowl performance

🇵🇷 Nearly 4 million Americans live in Puerto Rico without formal representation in institutions that determine their laws and budgets. @maraceci.bsky.social et al will amplify PR's political voice with the island's first large, representative panel survey:
racialjustice.umich.edu/research-eng...

Prospects for the 2026 Congressional Elections History and forecasting methods show there's a very good chance that the Democrats will gain control of the House after the midterm elections.

There is a very good chance that Democrats will gain control of the House after the Midterms. Elections expert Michael Traugott explains the forecast and presents historical data on incumbent party gains and losses in the latest blog from CPS: cpsblog.isr.umich.edu?p=3590

Political Economy Workshop: Edgar Franco-Vivanco presents "Juristictional Havens: The Geography of Indigenous Identity in Mexico," Jan 27 2026 from 1 to 2:20 in Eldersveld Room, 5670 Haven Hall.

Edgar Franco-Vivanco presents evidence from Mexico describing how "jurisdictional havens"—areas where royal and religious authority competed and overlapped-- enhanced local autonomy and shaped the long-term persistence of group identities. Political Economy Workshop: sites.google.com/umich.edu/pe...

Thank you to the new International Hub psc.isr.umich.edu/research/int... @um-psc.bsky.social

Julia Lippman and Pauline Jones

🍭🌲Congratulations to Julia Lippman, winner of our holiday candy jar contest, a long-standing CPS tradition that honors Barb Opal. James Morrow submitted his annual outlier estimate and Julia won with an exact hit of 108. @profpjones.bsky.social

American National Election Studies checkmark logo

A new release of the ANES Cumulative Data File is now available for download. Over 200 variables have been updated to include data from the 2024 Time Series. Visit the study page to download data and documentation:

electionstudies.org/data-center/...

The Roy Pierce Scholars Fund The Roy Pierce Scholars Fund provides summer support for graduate students in the University of Michigan Political Science Department to work with a member of CPS faculty. The Pierce Fund honors Roy P...

🚨FELLOWSHIPS AVAILABLE! @umisrcps.bsky.social has seven #ISRNextGeneration awards open to UM graduate students and postdocs advancing research on comparative politics, political opinion & behavior, and more. Explore, share with students, and apply by Feb 9! cps.isr.umich.edu/fellowships/

American Preference Changes from 2016 to 2024 – Kevin Reuning

I used the panel release from the @electionstudies.bsky.social to look at how votes and views have changed across the 2016, 2020, and 2024 election. There isn't a lot of analysis here but there are lots of plots and data.

Liberal positions seem to be more consistently held (sort of)

OPINION TODAY featured podcast —
Dealing with Selection Bias in Surveys, with Rod Little, @randridge.bsky.social and @bradytwest.bsky.social
(@aapor.bsky.social)
opiniontoday.substack.com/i/180586526/...

YouTube video by The Civic Forum Is American Democracy Failing at the State Level? | Jake Grumbach, UC Berkeley

Was on Civic Forum with @rorytruex.bsky.social talking about US democracy. We talked about political inequality & minority rule in the US, with a focus on my research on the states. But then talk about what's new in the more acute democracy crisis of 2025

www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbxC...

A certainty‐weighted, belief‐based model of political attitudes: A Bayesian analysis of American public attitudes toward the affordable care act This study proposes a novel, certainty-weighted account of the process by which political beliefs shape political attitudes. Building upon expectancy-value frameworks, this paper introduces belief ce...

How do people form beliefs about complex topics?

Happy to report our Bayesian model of the psychology of Bayesian updating is out in @ispp-pops.bsky.social! (w/ Gabriel Li & Krosnick)

If you gloss over the Greek, it's a new model for how to assess the impacts of information on summary judgments.

Here's the link! ➡️ cps.isr.umich.edu

Website Launch! Visit cps.isr.umich.edu. (Image shows phone and desktop with home CPS home page featuring latest news, CPS highlights, and the ANES.

🎊 The University of Michigan Center for Political Studies @umisrcps.bsky.social has a new website. Take a look and follow our independent, scientific research on politics and society. @umisr.bsky.social

picture of a hand with pen writing ANES User Survey: https://bit.ly/43vgW8b

Thanks to all who have completed our user survey. But if you haven't, don't forget to take it. This feedback will inform our long-term planning. We really would like to hear from you!

bit.ly/43vgW8b

👀 Don't miss this thread by 2025 @aaas.org inductee and @rcgd-isr.bsky.social affiliate David Dunning @daviddunning6.bsky.social, and his featured talk -- sharing what we believe to be wisdom.

#LookToMichigan #PsychSky @umisr.bsky.social

The Eric Schickler essay in Larry Bartel's symposium on "What Trump Has Taught Us About Political Science" is one of the most insightful pieces I've read in 2025.

US institutions turned out to be weak, and we have to rethink conventional wisdom.

open access: academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...

Ford School: Center for Racial Justice. Photos of Jowei Chen and Mara Ostfeld

@umfordschool.bsky.social and the Trotter Center are hosting CPS affiliates @maraceci.bsky.social and Jowei Chen Thursday for a teach-in panel, "Unpacking Election Policy: How is it Shaping Our Democracy?" Details and registration: myumi.ch/5kbbA

Tabling Debate: How Local Officials Try to Use Agenda Control to Stifle Conflict Public officials influence policymaking by deciding which items receive attention and action—and which do not. Accounts from national legislatures typically explain agenda control in terms of party l...

Using a dataset of nearly 65,000 school board meeting transcripts, @mirya.bsky.social and @simko.bsky.social investigate whether local officials use agenda control to stifle conflict; school board members increase use of tabling when debate arises. doi.org/10.1111/lsq....

Ford School: Center for Racial Justice. Photos of Jowei Chen and Mara Ostfeld

@umfordschool.bsky.social and the Trotter Center are hosting CPS affiliates @maraceci.bsky.social and Jowei Chen Thursday for a teach-in panel, "Unpacking Election Policy: How is it Shaping Our Democracy?" Details and registration: myumi.ch/5kbbA

University of Michigan Center for Political Studies (CPS): democratic engagement. Follow us on LinkedIn and Bluesky, and find us at cps.isr.umich.edu. (The image shows Josh Pasek giving a presentation on US voters)

#LookToMichigan and the University of Michigan @umisrcps.bsky.social Center for Political Studies for leading work on democracy, civic, and global engagement. Repost & follow our research on *both* Bluesky and LinkedIn! @umisr.bsky.social

www.linkedin.com/company/1066...

Suzanne Perkins

ICYMI: Michigan helped reignite the research career of cancer survivor Suzanne Perkins @20thofmay.bsky.social, who planned her career around the insight that education plays a key role in recovery for children who have been maltreated. #LifeChangingEducation feature story:
myumi.ch/9pWk3