Megan Cassella

👋That's a wrap from me for the year: Signing off today for maternity leave feeling very grateful to be able to dedicate the next few months to figuring out how to raise a baby.

It'll be a very different type of craziness for me for the next little bit. See you in 2026!

Some new(ish) art on display in the West Wing of the White House

Other tariffs will remain as-is -- most notably those imposed on a sector-specific basis, including on steel, aluminum, copper, and cars.

And the White House can, and likely will, pursue other unilateral options to impose additional tariffs. But this would be a setback.

If SCOTUS rules against the President, the administration will have to remove the tariffs and could have to refund, to importers, everything they have paid in duties since the tariffs took effect.

The vast majority of the tariffs we've seen the President impose so far this term are on the table here, including everything he's imposed on a country-specific basis: versus China, Mexico, Canada, the EU, Brazil, India, and 60+ other trading partners.

🚨A big tariff update this afternoon, with the Supreme Court agreeing to hear Trump's appeal in the case over the legality of his tariffs, *and* has agreed to a motion to expedite.

That means the case is set for the Court to hear oral arguments in the first week of November.

New reporting from the White House regarding the Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar: A White House official tells me the U.S. was notified of the attack just before it happened.

No further details for now, but expect we could hear more from details from the White House later today.

With his IEEPA tariff powers in jeopardy, President Trump is now threatening to use a different trade tool, known as Section 301, to push back on the EU over its fines on Google and other U.S. tech companies.

Would require an investigation, but could lead to steep new tariffs on the EU.

Trump Is Accusing Foes With Multiple Mortgages of Fraud. Records Show 3 of His Cabinet Members Have Them. The White House has targeted opponents, including a Fed governor, for having more than one primary residence on their loan papers. ProPublica found that, in one case, a Trump cabinet secretary got two...

Strong reporting here from ProPublica, which found that three Trump Cabinet members -- at Labor, Transportation and EPA -- call multiple homes their primary residence on mortgages.

That's the same move that led Trump to fire Lisa Cook from her job at the Fed. bit.ly/466yMyI

Interesting color in the administration's motion to SCOTUS to expedite the tariffs case from Treasury Sec. Bessent, who says the appeals court ruling on Friday against Trump's tariffs is already impacting trade talks:

"World leaders are ... walking away from or delaying negotiations," he says.

The Supreme Court has now officially docketed the case challenging Trump's IEEPA tariffs: bit.ly/46132uU

In its motion to expedite, the Trump administration asked the Court to decide whether to take the case by Sept. 10, laying out a timeline that could lead to oral arguments by early November.

Fed's Beige Book: "Nearly all Districts noted tariff-related price increases, with contacts from many Districts reporting that tariffs were especially impactful on the prices of inputs." bit.ly/45MUb11

Tillis says he will not consider Lisa Cook Fed replacement amid legal dispute Republicans likely need unanimous GOP support to advance picks out of the Banking panel, where they have a 13-11 majority.

Sen. Thom Tillis, a Senate Banking Republican, says he will not consider a replacement for Lisa Cook's seat on the Fed board unless/until a court rules her firing was legal.

Suggests Pres. Trump will NOT be able to fill her seat unless that happens.

From Politico: www.politico.com/live-updates...

The President says his administration will be appealing the IEEPA tariffs case to the Supreme Court as soon as tomorrow, and will be asking for an expedited ruling in the case.

Reminder the stay that allows the tariffs to remain in place for now is due to expire Oct. 14.

It’s striking to me just how severe the White House says the consequences of losing the tariffs appeal would be. Trump says the U.S. would be a “Third World Nation.” Navarro called it “the end of the United States.” One court loss and they’re warning the entire economic agenda falls apart.

I don't believe we'd heard the administration say this before. Sounds technical, but it's interesting: It means that even under a rosy scenario with China—say, the two sides strike some sort of near-term deal—the bulk of tariffs added so far this term are likely to stay in place.

Bessent tells Fox Biz he needs "months, if not quarters, if not a year of progress" on fentanyl before he can imagine the 20% fentanyl tariffs being removed on Chinese imports.

That suggests the China tariffs, currently 30% this term, are unlikely to fall below 20% anytime soon.

Pres. Trump this morning says “trillions” of dollars are being collected in tariff revenue. The Peterson Institute’s latest estimates show just $93.9 billion has been collected through the first six months of this year.

Just over 12 hours before the U.S.-China temporary tariff truce is set to expire, Pres. Trump says "we'll see what happens" when asked whether he plans to extend the deadline.

A parade of CEOs at the White House today: Besides Apple’s Tim Cook, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser and BofA’s Brian Moynihan have all been here as well.

Fraser and Moynihan held meetings with the President about the privatization of Fannie/Freddie, I’m told.

A White House official tells me Tim Cook will be at the White House today when he and President Trump announce that Apple will be upping its investment commitments in the U.S. by another $100 billion, as it works to bring more manufacturing and more of its supply chain to the US.

4. I asked if the official had a message for Wall Street worried about political interference in and reliability of federal statistics.

The official said they will get someone in position who is competent, can do the job and won’t embarrass themselves, as they believe the previous commissioner did.

3. The White House believes this move is within the President’s authority, “100%.”

Asked if they were prepared for a legal challenge, the official replied they were “prepared for anything.”

2. The official conceded that yes, revisions to the data are normal. But the White House says this is about the scale in which revisions had to be made during McEntarfer’s tenure.

They described today’s downward revisions as “pretty significant.”

Just spoke with an administration official about the President’s decision to fire the BLS commissioner. Some takeaways:

1. The firing was due to what the White House sees as a “pattern of incompetence.” The possibility of firing her had been on the President’s radar for months.

A White House official confirms to me this means all aspects of the status quo with Mexico hold, including exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods.

While we await EOs, a reminder of what tariffs are expected to take effect at midnight, as of now:

—10-20% tariffs on 7 countries with framework deals
—11-50% “reciprocal” tariffs against 50+ other countries
—15-20% global “baseline” tariff (for everyone else)
—50% copper tariff

I expect the list to be updated, given the threats and tariff changes the President has made in the last month (letters, framework deals) all still need to be formalized via EO. But worth noting a wave of country-specific tariffs is coming, not just for the seven that struck deals.

We’re 16 hours now from the President’s midnight trade deadline, at which point sweeping tariffs of 11-50% are set to take effect against 50+ countries.

These were announced April 2, delayed to July 9 and then Aug. 1. As currently written via EO, all take effect at 12:01am.

And, one final point: Almost none of what the White House has been pledging to do on trade had yet been formalized via executive order -- even the bevy of things set to take effect at 12:01am on Friday.

That appears to be changing! We'll see how much more we get in the next 24 hours.