Megan Cassella

4. I asked if the official had a message for Wall Street worried about political interference in and reliability of federal statistics.

The official said they will get someone in position who is competent, can do the job and won’t embarrass themselves, as they believe the previous commissioner did.

3. The White House believes this move is within the President’s authority, “100%.”

Asked if they were prepared for a legal challenge, the official replied they were “prepared for anything.”

2. The official conceded that yes, revisions to the data are normal. But the White House says this is about the scale in which revisions had to be made during McEntarfer’s tenure.

They described today’s downward revisions as “pretty significant.”

Just spoke with an administration official about the President’s decision to fire the BLS commissioner. Some takeaways:

1. The firing was due to what the White House sees as a “pattern of incompetence.” The possibility of firing her had been on the President’s radar for months.

A White House official confirms to me this means all aspects of the status quo with Mexico hold, including exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods.

While we await EOs, a reminder of what tariffs are expected to take effect at midnight, as of now:

—10-20% tariffs on 7 countries with framework deals
—11-50% “reciprocal” tariffs against 50+ other countries
—15-20% global “baseline” tariff (for everyone else)
—50% copper tariff

I expect the list to be updated, given the threats and tariff changes the President has made in the last month (letters, framework deals) all still need to be formalized via EO. But worth noting a wave of country-specific tariffs is coming, not just for the seven that struck deals.

We’re 16 hours now from the President’s midnight trade deadline, at which point sweeping tariffs of 11-50% are set to take effect against 50+ countries.

These were announced April 2, delayed to July 9 and then Aug. 1. As currently written via EO, all take effect at 12:01am.

And, one final point: Almost none of what the White House has been pledging to do on trade had yet been formalized via executive order -- even the bevy of things set to take effect at 12:01am on Friday.

That appears to be changing! We'll see how much more we get in the next 24 hours.

As for the consumer impact, though, the White House took steps to minimize this one. Hundreds of Brazilian imports appear to be excluded, including some consumer buys: orange juice, tires, fuel oil, LNG, etc.

And on Brazil, this brings Trump's tariffs into new territory: He declared economic emergency to do it, saying the "politically motivated persecution" of Brazil's Bolsonaro threatens the U.S. economy and national security.

We'll see if courts agree that's what IEEPA is meant for

On copper: The tariff will impact all semi-finished products and some derivative products. Within 90 days, it might be expanded to cover more items.

We saw huge moves in copper trading on this: Contracts are down ~19% to the lowest levels since May, the biggest drop since 1989

Under de minimis, exporters could ship packages worth up to $800 to the U.S. without paying any tariffs.

It helps small businesses, but it's also what helps make shopping at Shein, Temu, Quince and elsewhere so cheap.

All of that will go away effective Aug. 29, per the new EO.

The White House dropped a flood of trade news via exec order this afternoon. In three parts:
—Trump revoked the "de minimis" trade loophole, which allows small packages to come in duty-free
—He formalized his 50% tariffs on copper
—and put 50% tariffs on Brazil

Let's break it down👇

Excellent point

In other words: We await lots of paperwork (likely executive orders and/or amendments) between now and Friday.

Two weeks later, this remains true -- not only for the framework deals with Indonesia and Vietnam, but also for those with the EU, Japan and the Philippines.

Also still to be finalized: All 25 or so of the new tariff rates laid out in the letters the President sent over the past month.

Ahhh yes, you're right. India!

Pres. Trump says today he's moving his deadline for 100% secondary tariffs targeting Russia to 10-12 days from now (up from Sept. 1).

These would primarily impact China and Iran, the major buyers of Russian oil -- interesting timing to level this threat as the Stockholm talks get underway.

Pres. Trump was asked tonight whether he ever planned to release details of the Vietnam trade framework.

“I don't think it matters how much I release of the deal,” he said. “We may open it. I mean I don't know, I can't tell you, I mean is it necessary? I don't think so.”

I'm a broken record on this, but formal paperwork is always key before tariff changes are finalized. And we are still waiting on further paperwork/confirmation for:
—The framework deals with Indonesia & Vietnam
—The 50% copper tariffs
—The 100% secondary tariffs targeting Russia

None of these are formal, signed "deals," but frameworks or agreements in principle. The U.K. framework has been agreed by both sides. The Vietnam and Indonesia announcements, as of now, have not.

More Indonesia trade framework details:
—0% tariffs on US exports; 19% tariffs on imports from Indonesia, per Trump (down from 32% threatened last week)
—Top imports that could see impact: palm oil, electronics, footwear, tires
—Awaiting formal paperwork and confirmation from Indonesia

None yet!

A week after announcing 50% tariffs on all imported copper, saying it poses a national security threat, the President today says that as part of the trade framework with Indonesia, the U.S. will be buying more of Indonesia's "very high quality copper."

~60% of everything the U.S. buys from abroad comes from four trading partners: the EU, Mexico, Canada & China. New tariff rates on imports from those four partners, starting Aug. 1:

— EU: 30%
— Mexico: 30%*
— Canada: 35%*
— China: 30%

*USMCA goods may be exempt, but the decision is not final

In new letters, President Trump today says all imports from Mexico and the EU will face 30% tariffs beginning Aug. 1.

Trump's message for countries ahead of the Aug 1 tariff deadline:

"Keep working hard. We've been taken advantage of for many years by countries, both friends and foe. Frankly, the friends have been worse than the foes.. So I'd say, just keep working. It's all going to work out."

Pres. Trump was asked twice this morning if he'll fire Fed Chair Powell. "No," he replied both times.

"I think he's doing a terrible job," he added. "I think we should be three points lower."

Escalations in Trump's trade war just this week:
— Steep new tariffs on Canada (largest buyer of US goods) & Brazil (which runs trade surplus with US)
—50% copper tariff
—Possible 200% pharmaceutical tariff
—Possible doubling of the baseline tariff on *everything,* up to 20%