Adam R.

Ford Backtracks On Extending The EV Lease Credit The American automaker previously said that it would offer the now-cancelled $7,500 federal tax credit until the end of the year.

Ford Backtracks On Extending The EV Lease Credit insideevs.com/news/775324/...

Tesla Has Big Robotaxi Dreams. FSD Is Running Red Lights The top federal road safety body is looking into scenarios where Teslas running

The top federal road safety body is looking into scenarios where Teslas running Full Self-Driving broke traffic laws.

insideevs.com/news/775291/...

A Way Forward | Adam Ragozzino I really like connecting the dots across data points. I built a risk index for the US EV industry and back tested it to get an interesting but probably not surprising story. The link to the infograph...

Original linkedIn post and more details: tinyurl.com/3axpsdrc

3/3 So what’s the path forward? Aggressive cost reduction.

States like #Colorado & OEMs like #Hyundai and #GM are showing the way with new incentives and lower-priced models. Automakers must simplify to reach the mainstream. It's a survival strategy.

#EVadoption #Omdia

2/3 What's driving the risk? Overwhelmingly the abrupt repeal of the IRA, with a +0.98 correlation to the total score.
This is colliding with a strained consumer reality: a shrinking middle class burdened by debt. High-priced EVs are running out of track.

#Economics #Automotive

1/3 I really like connecting the dots across data points. I built a risk index for the US EV industry and backtested it to get an interesting but probably not surprising story.

The headline score: 71.1 (High Risk). Full infographic here: usenrisk.tiiny.site
#EVs #AutoTech

original post: bsky.app/profile/arag...

I updated the #EV sales scenarios from 6 months ago. Automakers have been shielding consumers from higher prices. That changes soon. The EV buying spree ahead of losing the $7,500 rebate is over. Our forecast is now tracking ~500k units lower from original Q3-24 #forecast. #US
tinyurl.com/2uae437b

China's new #Battery export controls are meant to protect its dominance, but are an own goal. Losers here are #CATL #BYD & #WeLion. #Beijing risks slowing their expansion, losing market share & fueling the move away from Chinese suppliers. It's a gamble that could backfire.

China's $450B+ trade dominance in Latin America is a problem the EV Industry can fix. The US has a chance to reset its relationship with S. Am. by partnering w Chile & Korea for cathodes. Get the the full report: acieslumen.com/infographic....
#CriticalMinerals #EV #Geopolitics #SupplyChain #Lithium

Ms. Shen was very clear that she did not think this was a possibility anytime soon nor was it President Xi Jinping's preference to invade Taiwan. And my point isn't to suggest that now it is but rather to highlight the idea of unintended consequences.
#politicalRisk #nobodywinsatradewar

That goes back to conversation I had with @eurasiagroup.net's China and NE Asia Analyst Ava Ao Shen where we discussed some of the possible lessons the CCP might take away from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. One was if the CCP were to invade Taiwan, it would first insulate its economy from sanctions.

But what I missed was the equal and opposite reaction from the PRC-now Newton's third law of motion and trade. What I mean is the trade friction with the U.S. is also accelerating the PRC's efforts to shift away from over relying on trade with the U.S. Thereby insulating itself from economic shocks.

dependence on suppliers based in China. But I was focused on how export controls on REE to the U.S. pushes importers to more rapidly reduce their dependence on suppliers based in China and this, in the long run, is bad for China. #trade #tarrifs #China #USA #electricvehicles #electricmotors #ree

A few weeks ago, I sent out the eMotor outlook for q1-25. In my commentary I described some of the effects of the current trade dispute between the U.S. and China. But I was focused on how export controls on REE to the U.S. pushes importers to more rapidly reduce their...

1.2 tWh of global cell capacity is at risk of cancellation or delay, especially projects in N. Am and EU. A drop in EV sales or supply chain disruptions likely accelerates the process. In the U.S., a business environment of uncertainty will have the same effect. #ElectricVehicles #EVs #Batteries

Bar chart showing the percent for each type of electric motor used in each type of plug-in electric vehicle for the years 2024 through 2031.

Sharing our new EV electric motor outlook here: mailchi.mp/b62887f4fcfa...
You can also sign up for quarterly data drops here:
eepurl.com/jb-_22

#ElectricVehicles #EVs #REE #electricmotors #tariffs #China #USA #tradewar

Axios Future of Mobility

Great article by Axio's Joann Muller. The tariffs will put legacy OEMs behind the eight ball when it comes to investing in their future. Potentially repealing the $7,500 rebate makes things even worse. The math adds up to making US automakers uncompetitive in EVs. www.axios.com/newsletters/...

Line chart showing effects of tariffs and repealing the $7,500 federal rebate on plug-in EV sales in the U.S. and a bar chart showing volume lost in each scenario.

For the most recent #WardsIntelligence/Omdia battery report, I thought it would be interesting to chart a few of the possible effects from potentially repealing the $7,500 rebate and tariffs on U.S. plug-in EV (BEVS, PHEVs, EREVs, and PFCEVs) sales. @rff.org #ElectricVehicles #Tariffs #UnitedStates

Elon Musk's luck has finally run out Buying Twitter was the biggest gamble of Musk's career. Now he — and his empire — are cracking under the pressure.

Get ready BlueSky, the platform formally known as Twitter may be at an end.

www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pr...