Alexander Lanoszka

Can't even criticize Paul Bremer anymore for his lack of foresight and planning. smh

We Were Right About Havana Syndrome In late 2017, while traveling to Moscow on official duty, I experienced a sudden, debilitating health incident. After a long and arduous battle with the

"For the victims of Havana Syndrome, the past several years have been marked by physical, emotional, and professional loss. None of us is the same person we were before our injuries. Even more painful has been the sense of moral injury and betrayal." warontherocks.com/2026/03/we-w...

Piece w/ @laurensukin.bsky.social & @lanoszka.bsky.social out in Apr. 2026 issue of Journal of Conflict Resolution. We surveyed publics in 24 countries in 2023: Calibrated US restraint/support for Kyiv was reassuring. Strong resolve isn't the only thing that can reassure.

doi.org/10.1177/0022...

Allies fear Iran war will leave them without US weapons they bought European and Asian countries worry the Pentagon is burning through munitions so fast that it won’t have enough to send the weapons they have purchased.

So much for buying American.

"“It is very frustrating, the words are not matching the deeds,” said an Eastern European official ... “It is pretty clear to everyone that the U.S. will put their own, Taiwan’s, Israel’s, and hemisphere priorities before Europe.”" www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

Quenching the Nuclear Stockpile’s Thirst for Tritium Most accounts of the Manhattan Project tell a familiar story: American scientists relentlessly racing to design and build the fission bombs that would

"Tritium is the seemingly inconsequential item upon which everything else depends. Without it, there can be no modern nuclear weapons, and thus no nuclear deterrence, the cornerstone of American defense." warontherocks.com/2026/03/quen...

1 in 4 Americans back Trump’s Iran strikes, most say he’s too quick to use force: poll New poll shows 27% of Americans approve U.S. military strikes on Iran ordered by Trump, with Republicans supporting 55%-32% while Democrats oppose 73%-7%.

"About one in four Americans, but a [small] majority of Republicans, say they approve of the U.S. military strikes on Iran ordered by President Donald Trump, according to a new poll."

No doubt will high energy prices and inflation erode support for this campaign.
www.foxnews.com/politics/1-4...

What Iran Might Do When It Has Nothing to Lose The risk of a retaliatory attack outside the Middle East is growing.

"When Time magazine this week asked DJT about the threat to the US homeland, he said, “I guess” Americans should be worried. “We plan for it. But yeah, you know, we expect some things. Like I said, some people will die. When you go to war, some people will die.”" www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

France’s nuclear initiative: A step toward Europeanising deterrence France’s plan to expand its nuclear arsenal and deepen cooperation with European partners marks a step towards ‘Europeanising’ deterrence. But stronger conventional forces and clearer strategies for m...

"Yet nuclear cooperation alone will not resolve Europe’s deterrence challenge. The credibility of a more European deterrence posture will depend on Europe’s ability to manage escalation below the nuclear threshold ..." www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Chart of the week: Russia lost more territory than it gained for the first time since 2023 Russia lost more territory than it gained in February for the first time since Ukraine's failed counteroffensive in 2023, according to independent Finnish open-source intelligence collective Black Bir...

Russia lost more territory than it gained in February for the first time since Ukraine's failed counteroffensive in 2023, according to independent Finnish open-source intelligence collective Black Bird Group.

As global markets tanked over Iran, U.S. stocks were mostly unscathed. Here’s why. There is an old saying in markets: Buy when the bullets (or bombs or missiles) fly.

As the Dow Jones falls over 1000 points this morning, it is important to be petty and to remember that someone published this analysis just yesterday: "U.S. stocks might be more insulated from a conflict in Iran than bearish investors had expected."
www.marketwatch.com/story/as-glo...

Macron says France will allow temporary deployment of nuclear-armed jets to European allies French President Emmanuel Macron says France will allow the temporary deployment of its nuclear-armed aircraft to allied countries as part of its new nuclear strategy.

"French President Emmanuel Macron announced Monday that France will increase its nuclear arsenal and, for the first time, allow the temporary deployment of its nuclear-armed aircraft to allied countries ..." apnews.com/article/fran...

Opinion: Trump's military doctrine is insular, with short military commitments The objective isn't invasion, it's low-risk opportunism

"The common thread connecting these operations is not escalation, but political opportunism: applying force only where the political and military costs appear low, in pursuit of quick wins that serve a limited foreign policy agenda.” @lanoszka.bsky.social

Opinion: Trump's military doctrine is insular, with short military commitments The objective isn't invasion, it's low-risk opportunism

Gen. Hayden likened air strikes to casual sex: they seem to offer gratification with little commitment. In our latest, Balkan, Richard, and I argue that the Trump admin's record of using military force suggests it likes gratification and is averse to commitment.
nationalpost.com/opinion/opin...

The US burned through more of its limited Tomahawk stockpile in strikes on Iran. It might need them in a war with China. The US Navy's Tomahawk cruise missiles have been used heavily in recent conflicts, deepening the strain on its stockpile.

"US officials and experts have raised concerns that Tomahawk stockpiles are being drained after their use against targets in Nigeria, Yemen, Iran, and now Iran again — risking that the US might not have enough on hand should it go to war with an adversary like China." www.yahoo.com/news/article...

Why did US and Israel attack Iran? Israel and the US believe Iran's regime is vulnerable, dealing with an economic crisis and the aftermath of protests.

But the Trump administration's own national security documents told me that regime change was no longer a foreign policy goal and that the Middle East would receive much less priority than before. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Supreme Court rejects Trump’s tariffs. Here’s what the president could try to use instead. The U.S. Supreme Court said President Trump exceeded his authority in using a 1977 law to justify a large swath of his tariffs, but that does not mean that he’s now unable to slap tariffs on other cou...

SCOTUS "has dealt a blow to Trump’s economic agenda, saying he exceeded his authority in using a 1977 law to justify a large swath of his tariffs. Yet the decision does not mean that Trump is now entirely unable to slap tariffs on other countries’ products." www.marketwatch.com/story/suprem...

How Should Canada Manage Its Relationship with China in 2026? - Network for Strategic Analysis (NSA) Policy Forum Politique is a new publication format that aims to stimulate debate by presenting a wide range of expert opinion on a topic of national security significance to Canada. For this fifth edi...

For this month's edition of Policy Forum Politique (RAS/NSA), we asked Balkan Devlen, Yuxi Liu, Pascale Massot, and Stephen Nagy for their thoughts on how Canada should go about managing its diplomatic and economic relationship with China in 2026.
ras-nsa.ca/how-should-c...

Pauses Without Peace: What Last Year’s Ceasefires Reveal About Global Conflict Management What if the United States isn’t ending wars, just interrupting them? Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump — who has repeatedly

"Ceasefires are no longer treated primarily as bridges to political settlement. They function instead as instruments of escalation management: mechanisms to contain risk, limit spillover, and restore short-term stability ..." warontherocks.com/2026/02/paus...

Italy says railways hit by 'serious sabotage' as Winter Olympics begin Police say they are investigating three incidents targeting rail infrastructure that caused travel delays.

"Suspected attacks on northern Italy's railway network have led to severe travel disruption in the region ... The Ministry of Transport called the incidents an act of "serious sabotage", which they said mirrored vandalism during the Paris Olympics in 2024." www.bbc.com/news/article...

The Washington Post dies in daylight.

Richard Shimooka: A mixed F-35/Gripen fleet will fail us in every way The Gripen is less capable, more expensive and still reliant on U.S. production

To add to what Richard wrote here about the demerits of a mixed fighter fleet, I would point out that no ally or partner that Canada has--aside from Sweden--wants us to renege on a procurement contract and settle for a lesser capability.
ca.news.yahoo.com/richard-shim...

Canada has no nuclear weapons. After Trump’s Greenland threats, should it? - National | Globalnews.ca Wayne Eyre, the former chief of the defence staff, recently said Canada shouldn't rule out acquiring nuclear weapons, but experts and the defence minister dismiss the idea.

I am no dove or arms control enthusiast, but the answer I gave to the question asked in this news report is a simple no. globalnews.ca/news/1162522...

Subtitle: Additional benefits would include 20,000 jobs in the Maritimes.

Someone should write an op-ed titled 'Why Canada needs the Gripen to make its future nuclear deterrent against the United States credible'. It will get published somewhere.

Nuclear Proliferation in the Second Trump Era Worries abound once more that U.S. treaty allies will now seek nuclear weapons--thankfully, it is not so simple.

Former chief of the Defence Staff Wayne Eyre suggested that Canada should keep the nuclear weapons option open. Yet, despite everything happening with the US these days, we should expect little allied nuclear proliferation in the foreseeable future despite such talk. substack.com/home/post/p-...

Canadian Insurgency as Speculative Fiction Talk of guerrilla warfare understates how far-fetched and dangerous it is.

Last week, the Globe and Mail reported that parts of the Canadian Armed Forces have studied insurgency in the very unlikely event that a forcible seizure of Canada takes place. I tackle this issue in my latest Substack essay. alanoszka.substack.com/publish/post...

It's almost as if the authors didn't bother with trying to acquire any knowledge before writing.

Toward a More Prudent US Greenland Policy The United States can better protect its interests in the Arctic through “dollar diplomacy” rather than “gunboat diplomacy.”

These authors perform the impressive feat of writing about Greenland without even one mention of Denmark. How can prudence be so ignorant? www.cato.org/commentary/t...

After Trump’s Ultimatum, Greenland Talks Include Sovereign U.S. Bases, No Drilling for Russia

It's unclear at this point that the United States would be able to make its bases in Greenland 'sovereign', as what British bases in Cyprus are. I suspect that Copenhagen would have been more amenable had Trump pursued a more tactful approach. Bad diplomacy is costly.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/w...

I think that's as much of a climb down you're going to get from him. He never admits he is wrong, and I agree that his credibility is shot. Thankfully, there are other reasons beyond his rhetoric and word choices to be skeptical about the use of force in this case.