Guessing Van Dijk and Gakpo were up 4 and 5.

Salah 1.19
Darwin 1.20
Jones with tons of pressure at 3-1 down is 1.21

Disappointed only saw 3 pens as wanted to see market opinion on a couple other Liverpool pen takers.

In Rugby, when there is an advantage you see some great tries and expansive creative play. How do you get them to play like that all the time?

Really interesting article & analysis. Not sure I agree with the commentary around the data - this seems to me to confirm that fatigue has almost zero effect.

Going from a 1.0047 multiplier on your shots when fresh (0-15) to a 1.0035 when tired (90+) is 🤏

Not many ppl know this but there are at least 5 liverpool players in the current squad with a better penalty record than Salah.

It will also come as a surprise that MacAllister and Nunez have exactly the same record of 12 from 13.

(stats from transfermarkt.co.uk)

There is one more thing. Our team is rolling out automatic match report creation on the website. The last weekend's Premier League games are already there. markstats.club/premier-leag...

No to mention over/under performing is usually just short term variance.

I hear ppl talking about over performing and under performing xg. This is pointless. Carragher explains it best here. The aim is to create xg, not over perform it.

I prefer some body make 3 xg per match and score twice than to make 0.5 xg on average and score once.

x.com/SkySportsPL/...

But sometimes there is opportunity where they appear to be wrong and there is a flood of backers on the wrong side.

I think the new one could be BBW. For bookie bashing wrong. Veitch’s next sentence is to praise timeform and racing post. But same applies to BB. Do an amazing job, produce a top notch product.

Think this was an interesting point. TFW and RPW for timeform wrong and racing post wrong.

The League Two Top Goalscorer race is always wonderful fun at this time of the season. We know who is leading the race, but we see loan recalls, inter-league Transfers and players sold after impressing.

🧵about who is/was in the hunt!

Merry Christmas everyone.

Hope you have a wonderful day. And what a day it is, by the way..

Merry Christmas and thank you to all of our predicting team,@jonnyc.bsky.social & all our helpers for great work on the data preparation.

Good luck this game week everyone!
#FPL

Chelsea Resurgence.

So how has the markets reacted to the Chelsea resurgence. Well, at first not at all. Pretty straight line until Game Week 14. Then suddenly the market readjusted.

The GW14 rating is based on the closing odds vs Southampton. Coming on the back of their 3-0 win over Villa.

The Successors.

So who will succeed City as Kings. Who is the new top rated team.

Its been a bit of a ding dong battle, with Liverpool and Arsenal flipping almost on a weekly basis.

Again, this is not my opinion but the rating implied by the closing match day odds.

Man City Collapse.

Market has been revising City implied rating all season. Even before their first defeat on GW10 (vs Bournemouth) their rating had dropped quite a bit.

A string of L's and the drop continues. It seems to me that City are now only rated as the 4th best team in the Prem.

They are based on the closing odds for given GW.

Basically I used the 1x2 odds to give the probabilities of each team winning.

ELO based rating systems generate probabilities from ratings and adjust.

I do the opposite here, I reverse the calculation to get the implied ratings from the probs.

So these are my market based implied rankings.

Yes I often turn off notifications and put away phone when watching. But also enjoy the twitter reaction to incidents or if keeping an eye on other games. So would like to not have to turn off notifications.

Social media should have a “delay feed/notifications” mode so that when you are watching “Live” sports on TV you don’t get constant spoilers. My TV stream is generally 30 secs to 2 mins behind live!

Kane loves a hat trick.

Massachusetts Requests Data From Sports Betting Operators on Player Limitations The Massachusetts Gaming Commission approved a request be sent to licensed sports betting operators for player limitation data.

After evaluating the provided data, the commission may recommend new regulations for the practice

www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/betting...

This is really getting quite remarkable

• BlueSky user numbers have doubled in the past week and now total 3.5 million across US & UK 🚀

• Number of people deleting their X/Twitter account remains way up

And the next chart is particularly notable...

Who is doing the Gambling Sharps starter pack?

You can start here

go.bsky.app/4v34Gh9

I've set up a Starter Pack of accounts that specialise in retro football content and have joined up to Bluesky.

Hopefully, this is of use to some of you! Have I missed anyone?

go.bsky.app/65vthe9

I think this is it. I am finally Ballon dor-ed out after this one.

fog2014.blogspot.com/2024/11/ball...

So that's it, that's the data. Download it, explore it, let me know if you do something funky with it.

Ballon d'Or 2013 Male Players Votes Network An interactive network graph showing the connections between voters and voted male football players from the male FIFA Ballon d'Or vote 2013.

One of the places that I found some of the voting data was in an old forgotten github repo.

github.com/yaph/ballon-...

They have some interesting presentation of the data, in the form of an interactive network graph.

exploring-data.com/vis/ballon-d...