Max Bergmann

The EU is definitely hard on itself. But the depictions of EU humiliation/division/flailing/feckless, etc - even if/when totally accurate - also serve a purpose in European politics in galvanizing future stronger action.

Actually, the EU’s (as in: the institutions, not the member states) reaction to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was pretty strong. In the proper Orwellian sense, e.g. the new European Peace Facility was funnelled into financing military support for Ukraine.

Europe’s Age of Humiliation The European Union is ending 2019 seemingly helpless and resigned in the face of its biggest challenges. If this stagnation continues, the only question is whether Europe will become a satellite of th...

Prescient or long-standing self-criticism? I was looking for quotes calling the EU-US trade deal a 'humilation', and then found this 2019 DGAP piece speaking of "Europe's Age of Humiliation", written pre-Covid and before the full Russian invasion of Ukraine.

We can be hard on ourselves.

Our new book on Chinese economic coercion, its weaponization of trade & how countries can fight back through collective resilience is coming out in January 2026.

By @csis.org @victordcha.bsky.social, Ellen Kim & @andysaulim.com

More here: cup.columbia.edu/book/chinas-...

On the latest episode of Russian Roulette, @erep.csis.org expert @maxbergmann.bsky.social speaks with Michael Kimmage about the recent headlines connected to Russia and Ukraine and what they mean for the coming months.

Listen here: www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...

Tack!

Stockholm’ing

I believe just as deeply today in what I wrote earlier this year, linked below:

Millions and even billions of Euros being thrown into additional defense (/defence) spending won’t bring expected benefits unless governments invest similarly in intelligence:

Europe’s Season of Humiliation Will Last for a While France’s Emmanuel Macron says the continent is seen as a geopolitical pushover. There’s no easy fix.

Thought-provoking piece by Bloomberg. With some points from my work.

The EU has bought time placating Trump with the trade deal. But if this summer of humiliation is to not turn into a century, the question is what the bloc will do with the time it bought.

1/

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Probably the first time that idle shitposting has resulted in concrete changes to an adversary’s nuclear posture.

Small data point on the greenlash.

For the first time, EVs get net positive approval ratings in this long-running survey by an insurance firm in Germany.

The young and those who drive a lot (!) are most in favour of EVs, the latter have highest "switch rate" of 6.1%.

www.huk.de/fahrzeuge/ra...

BOEM Rescinds All Offshore Wind Energy Areas in Major Policy Reversal The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) announced yesterday it has rescinded all designated Wind Energy Areas (WEAs) on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf, effectively ending the federal designatio...

RIP US offshore wind. US Bureau of Offshore Energy Management rescinds ALL areas designated for offshore wind energy development in federal waters.
gcaptain.com/boem-rescind... 🔌💡

A Long-Term Russia Strategy for Europe No matter the outcome in Ukraine, Russia will remain a strategic threat to Europe and European interests. A European containment strategy reworked for the particularities of the present can help Europ...

With Russia set to challenge the West for years to come, what’s the best long-term strategy? Our new @erep.csis.org report explores the need for a renewed approach—potentially a modern take on Cold War-era containment. Please read, comment and share!
🔗 www.csis.org/analysis/lon...

4.1% NGDP growth in the 2010’s was like a 53-degree day in April. It’s not warm, but you’re not freezing. 4.1% NGDP growth in the middle of an AI boom is like having a blast furnace running in an otherwise unheated Minnesota house in winter — you’re grateful for the heat but screwed if it breaks.

Swedish PR firms remain second only to Ukrainian Stratcom.

Someone needs to run for DC mayor next year on getting rid of the downtown height limit.

Q2 GDP came in at a 3.0% annual rate.

There were massive timing shifts that shifted reported growth from Q1 to Q2. The much better way to look at the data is averaging the two which is a 1.2% annual rate. That is well below the pace in 2024 or the Nov 2024 forecast for 2025-H1.

IEA's mid-year electricity review is out. Some highlights below:

First time in 100 years, renewables are set to overtake coal in global electricity production as soon as this year (or latest next year).

Wind + Solar contribution to global grid mix will reach 20% by 2026, up from 4% in 2016.

🧵

INTERVIEW: Europe’s armies at ‘50% of what we need’, says defence commissioner - Euractiv The commissioner sat down with Euractiv to discuss EU defence policy priorities

Lots in this interview with EU Defense Commissioner Kubilius. Says EU spending on US weapons down from 60% to 40% of EU procurement. “If we manage to incentivise member states also to spend more on European products, it means less for American products, slowly.” www.euractiv.com/section/defe...

A scenario where steel tariffs exceed 25% while finished cars face 15% would make it cheaper to import complete vehicles than to manufacture them domestically using tariffed inputs. This could undermine the competitiveness of U.S. operations. 5/12

Finbarr Bermingham (@finbarrbermingham) Is EU’s global clout fading amid gruelling stand-offs with China and the US? I suppose this is, for most people, a rhetorical question. The last week has done little for the bloc’s global standing. A...

For those who are interested, I am posting longer-form notes on Substack, providing a little more background to the reporting in my SCMP stories.

Latest one here.

substack.com/@finbarrberm...

The U.S. Clean Energy Manufacturing Boom Is Sputtering More than $30 billion of clean energy investments are now on ice since Trump took office, according to new data from Wellesley College’s Big Green Machine.

More than $30B in U.S. clean energy manufacturing investment has paused, canceled, or delayed in the six months since Trump took office, according to a new report

During the same period, only $3B in new investment has been announced

new from me, in @heatmap.news:
heatmap.news/economy/trum...

✍️ Then and now, a containment strategy seeks to check Moscow’s power & avoid a direct conflict. Today, replicating Kennan’s approach in Europe is not enough—new times call for new thinking.

📌 @maxbergmann.bsky.social @msnegovaya.bsky.social @hannanotte.bsky.social Michael Kimmage + Jeffrey Mankoff

Liebreich: The Pragmatic Climate Reset - Part I | BloombergNEF As the tide on clean energy turns, Michael Liebreich makes a strong case for a pragmatic climate reset.

I've been reading everything that @mliebreich.bsky.social writes for nearly two decades. His latest doesn't disappoint. about.bnef.com/insights/cle...

Nah. It ain’t much of anything

Suspect Guilty GIF ALT: Suspect Guilty GIF

Who did this!
on.ft.com/4ob9sQp Germany and France hit out at EU-US deal

Literally the day we leave town...

Correct headline today: EU endorses the drive-by killing of the postwar rules-based trading system and the most-favoured-nation principle.

After seeing the reaction to the trade deal, I'm a little surprised at the outrage within the EU at the EU's weakness. The capitulation was foretold. Member states didn't want the fight. But the fierce blow back will stiffen EU spines and focus mines in the next fight.