Mike DeKay

It is interesting that two of the data points in the small data set were from that part of Texas.

A graph of predicted loss of life as a function of warning time from flash flood when there are 1,000 people at risk. With no warning, over 130 fatalities are expected. With one hour, only about 10 are expected. Those numbers are for "high force" floods with swiftly moving water. Note: the data are more than 30 years old.

It's a shame the county decided not to install a warning system (e.g., sirens) along the Guadalupe River. Here's a 30-yr-old graph showing the benefit of warning time for forceful floods w/ pop. at risk = 1000. Would love an update based on more data.

Paper: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Nice paper w/ some great points. Maybe see Michel Regenwetter's papers on generalizing to "people." Other examples: Hershey & Shoemaker (1980, reflection effect) and - self-serving - one of mine (2016, do multiple plays eliminate certainty/possibility effects?). Still a role for btw-Ss exps, imho.

A table listing some limitations of meta-analyses and how metastidies address them. Metastudies provide advantages related to applicability; time, effort, and money; publication bias; statistical precision and power; generalizability; and the interpretation of results for moderators.

Wonderful paper! For more on purposive variation, see this 2022 paper on metastudies: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Free postprint: osf.io/preprints/ps...

It's like Simonsohn et al.'s new mix-and-match method, but with more attention to moderation, generalizability, and statistical power.

When completely described, the certain option includes a negation, as in "200 people will be saved and 400 people will not be saved."

Some theories have no place for such negations and so don't make clear predictions. Others predict no framing effect in choices between completely described options.

New PsyArXiv preprint! osf.io/preprints/ps...

Risky-choice framing effects persist when option descriptions are matched in gains and losses and even when the options are completely described.

(Last year's Psych Science results replicated nicely in a larger census-matched sample!)

California battery facility fire raises concerns over energy storage plant regulation Following a lithium-ion battery fire at the Moss Landing plant in Monterey County in California, communities nationwide are expressing concerns about hosting similar plants.

Here's the link:
www.npr.org/2025/04/16/n...

Teaching tidbit for JDM/risk perception: NPR story on a fire in a battery storage facility is a perfect example of Slovic's "signal potential." Link in comment.

“Ultimately, the incident has tremendous potential to derail the industry, not just within California, but across all of North America.”

I was there! It was raining the whole time, and people were undeterred.

Free postprint on PsyArXiv:
osf.io/preprints/ps...

Accelerating Psychological Science With Metastudies: A Demonstration Using the Risky-Choice Framing Effect - Michael L. DeKay, Nataliya Rubinchik, Zhaojun Li, Paul De Boeck, 2022 A metastudy is a set of many tiny studies (microstudies) created from a much larger collection of possibilities. Metastudies can yield many of the benefits of t...

An appeal to anyone conducting a "megastudy": Treat it like a big counterbalanced experiment (as in a "metastudy"; see link to a not-so-new paper), so you don't end up with some of the same problems as meta-analyses, such as having the features of the interventions being correlated and imbalanced.

Accelerating Psychological Science With Metastudies: A Demonstration Using the Risky-Choice Framing Effect - Michael L. DeKay, Nataliya Rubinchik, Zhaojun Li, Paul De Boeck, 2022 A metastudy is a set of many tiny studies (microstudies) created from a much larger collection of possibilities. Metastudies can yield many of the benefits of t...

An appeal to anyone overseeing a "megastudy": Treat the whole thing like a big counterbalanced experiment (as in a "metastudy"; see the link), so you don't end up with some of the same problems as meta-analyses, such as having the features of the interventions being correlated and imbalanced.

'Deeply disturbing': Musk's 'Hitler didn't murder millions' repost draws outrage Musk's repost, which now appears to be deleted, drew furious reactions from workers and the Anti- Defamation League.

I'm surprised the X logo has not spouted little clockwise feet to resemble a swastika. Graphic designers, where are you?

Wonderful paper! At the risk of appearing/being self-serving, here are three papers on perceptions of energy and water use (not perceptions of others' beliefs) that used similar methods (mixed models):

www.pnas.org/doi/full/10....

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

www.pnas.org/doi/full/10....

Young people who aspired to government service dismayed by Trump ending the federal fellows program Young people who aspired to federal government service are dismayed by President Donald Trump ending a program created to entice highly qualified workers to join the government.

Our daughter McKenzie (not pictured) is one of the fired Presidential Management Fellows featured in this story. Feel free to share.

DOGE has never been and never will be about efficiency. There is zero chance that firing these talented, dedicated young employees improves government efficiency.

Living liver donors as well, though not the topic of the film.

Trump/Musk fired our daughter McKenzie. A smart, dedicated servant who has worked for the US Census, the US Embassy in Bolivia, and the US Treasury. Fulbright Scholar, Presidential Management Fellow, and (until today) a probationary IRS economist. She moved to Utah for the job in November. Fuckers.

Is anyone tallying the number of federal employees fired in each state? It seems potentially useful (if anything is) to be able to tell a Senator that Trump has fired, say, 500 of their constituents. Or that Trump has fired, say, 200 Ohio State graduates.

What source article are you talking about?

I don't know about love, but the movie dialog provides a great example of the sunk-cost effect, useful for teaching (or testing) JDM. Jason Alexander's character says something like, "Back out? Forget it, pal! We've got a thousand man-hours in on this."

BTW, we're running another one right now, using four scenarios where we found a significant effect in recent studies (in a particular condition) and four scenarios from earlier studies in which the authors found a nonsignificant effect in the same condition. The data are trickling in.

Accelerating Psychological Science With Metastudies: A Demonstration Using the Risky-Choice Framing Effect - Michael L. DeKay, Nataliya Rubinchik, Zhaojun Li, Paul De Boeck, 2022 A metastudy is a set of many tiny studies (microstudies) created from a much larger collection of possibilities. Metastudies can yield many of the benefits of t...

You might like the metastudies approach, with stimuli and other aspects of the design varied to learn about generalizability and boundary conditions: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

We also have follow-ups for framing effects with extreme probabilities, somewhat risky options. See PsyArXiv.

Good advice for non-business psychological research as well. I especially like point 3, about the sampling of stimuli. I would add that we should also sample (or vary) other features of the design as well, to assess generalizability, as in the metastudies approach.

How to fix the most common problems in consumer research — Band of Townies Caleb discusses the four problems he sees in the articles he reviews for for consumer research journals and directs readers to the papers that explain how to fix them.

I agree with most of the points in this article about how to fix the most common problems in consumer research.
bandoftownies.com/blog/2025/1/...

Sure. That would be great. Thanks. :-)

When will it be available in print? It's been a year since the online publication?

Got that end-of-the-year paper submitted a day early!

Framing Effects in Choices with Somewhat Risky Options [not just certain and all-or-none options], with former undergrad Prachiti Garge. osf.io/preprints/ps...

Expectation-based theories (especially TAX) fared better than categorical accounts.

Thanks, Nick!

Our recent Psych Science results replicated perfectly in a larger census-matched sample. Take that, reviewer 2!

Risky-Choice Framing Effects Result Partly From Mismatched Option Descriptions in Gains and Losses

Article: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

SJDM poster: sjdm.org/presentation...

Please add me to the list. Thanks!