Gideon Lukens

After the enhancements, the uninsured rate fell most for people with low incomes in non-expansion states – people who would have been eligible for Medicaid if their states expanded…and who stand to lose the most if enhancements expire. (3/3)

In non-expansion states, uninsurance will rise by 37% in the median state. The steepest increases are in Mississippi (65% increase), South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, and Louisiana. (2/3)

4.8 Million People Will Lose Coverage in 2026 If Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire In this brief, we estimate the impact on coverage of the expiration of enhanced PTCs that would occur in 2026 without action by Congress. Our estimates inclu…

If premium tax credit enhancements expire, uninsurance will increase 21% overall, with the biggest increases in southern states that haven’t enacted ACA Medicaid expansions. (1/3)
tinyurl.com/yhv9jxm3

But if the enhancements expire, CBO estimates that ~4 million people will become uninsured. To be clear: these are 4 million REAL people who will lose marketplace coverage and NOT get employer or any other insurance. (4/4)

Marketplace enrollment grew 143% for people with incomes 100-200% FPL after premium tax credit enhancements, showing how extending them would overwhelmingly benefit low- and moderate-income households. (3/4)

4.8 Million People Will Lose Coverage in 2026 If Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire In this brief, we estimate the impact on coverage of the expiration of enhanced PTCs that would occur in 2026 without action by Congress. Our estimates inclu…

For Black and Latino people, marketplace enrollment grew 186% and 158% (doubled to tripled) over 2021-2024. Uninsurance will increase by 30% (925,000) among Black people if the enhancements expire – more than any other racial group. (2/4)
tinyurl.com/yhv9jxm3

Since 2021, ACA marketplace enrollment more than doubled for people with low incomes and for Black and Latino enrollees after premium tax credit enhancements. (1/4)

Who Might Lose Eligibility for Affordable Care Act Marketplace Subsidies if Enhanced Tax Credits Are Not Extended? | KFF This analysis looks at the individual market enrollees who make at least four times the federal poverty level who would no longer be eligible for any tax credits if the current ACA Marketplace enhance...

Early and pre-retirees (aged 50-64) make up half of individual market enrollees who will lose eligibility for premium tax credits if the enhancements expire, with rural workers hit especially hard. (5/5)
tinyurl.com/353psmw8

About Half of Adults with ACA Marketplace Coverage are Small Business Owners, Employees, or Self-Employed | KFF This analysis estimates that 48% of adults under age 65 with individual market coverage are either employed by a small business with fewer than 25 workers, self-employed entrepreneurs, or small busine...

Half of working-age adults with individual market coverage are either self-employed, small business owners, or small business workers, who often have difficulty accessing employer coverage. (4/5)
tinyurl.com/sbusmcxf

Occupations with Large Shares of Workers Who Rely on Individual Market Coverage | KFF This analysis examines the share of adult workers in occupations that rely more heavily on individual market coverage for health insurance, which is largely made up by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Ma...

More than 1 in 4 farmers, ranchers, and real estate brokers buy coverage in the individual market (which is primarily composed of the ACA marketplace), making them especially reliant on enhanced premium tax credits. (3/5)
tinyurl.com/anfhsvwa

If premium tax credits expire, more than 2 in 5 veterans enrolled in the ACA marketplace will lose their coverage – that’s 267,000 veterans losing coverage out the 623,000 enrolled. (2/5)
tinyurl.com/2bs4aj2j

Premium tax credit enhancements help tipped workers, veterans, small business workers, farmers, and older people afford health coverage. Their premiums will soon spike and millions of them will lose coverage if the enhancements expire. (1/5)

People With Low Incomes May Lose $0 Premium Plans — a Lifeline — Unless Congress Acts | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Everyone should be able to get the health care they need to thrive, and for that to happen, it must be affordable, high quality, and easily accessible for all. Premium tax credit (PTC) enhancements...

NEW from @centeronbudget.bsky.social: Without Congressional action, premium tax credit enhancements will expire, raising costs for nearly all marketplace enrollees and putting millions of those with the lowest incomes at risk of becoming uninsured when they lose $0 premium plans.

More than 2 in 5 veterans enrolled in the ACA marketplace will lose their coverage if premium tax credit enhancements expire, out of the 623,000 veterans who would otherwise have marketplace coverage in 2026. New Urban Institute estimates here: tinyurl.com/2bs4aj2j

Five Key Changes to ACA Marketplaces Amid Uncertainty Over Premium Tax Credit Enhancements | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Recent policy changes, most notably enhancements to premium tax credits to reduce enrollees’ health insurance premiums, have driven record-breaking enrollment gains and delivered reduced costs, simpli...

NEW from @jenniferlsullivan.bsky.social and me for @centeronbudget.bsky.social: With Congress poised to take away premium tax credit enhancements soon, ~4M people will lose coverage and costs will rise for nearly all ACA marketplace enrollees unless Congress acts.🧵

Exclusive | Trump Administration Cancels Annual Hunger Survey The government has been measuring food insecurity since the mid-1990s but now says the report has become “overly politicized.”

The Administration acknowledged that it will stop the survey that measures food insecurity, just as tariffs push up food prices and the deep cuts to food assistance enacted in July start to take effect. Congress must intervene to save these vital data. www.wsj.com/economy/trum...

Despite claims to the contrary, premium tax credits are well targeted to people with low & moderate incomes who need the most help with health costs. Three-quarters of people getting the credits have incomes below 300% FPL (~$47K for an individual). >90% have incomes below 400% FPL (~$63K)

NC uninsured rate dropped by 0.7 ppt in 2024, opposite the natl increase of 0.3 ppt. Why? Because NC expanded Medicaid! Medicaid enrollment rose by 14% in NC, while falling in every other state (down 12% nationally). SD expanded in 2023 and saw a drop, but not stat sig. tinyurl.com/yc7pjf96

Today’s ACS data show health coverage inequities increased in 2024 for Black & Latino ppl, and ppl with low and moderate incomes. These trends were likely driven by the drop in Medicaid enrollment. tinyurl.com/yttxmmp5

Census’ American Community Survey: the 2024 uninsured rate increased to 8.2%, up from its 7.9% low in 2023. ACA marketplace policies like enhanced premium tax credits partly cushioned Medicaid enrollment declines due to unwinding of a COVID-era provision. More here: tinyurl.com/3mc8hhm9

Analyzing the Census Bureau’s 2024 Poverty, Income, and Health Insurance Data | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities On Tuesday, September 9, the Census Bureau will release data on poverty, income, and health insurance coverage for 2024. Additional health insurance data from the American Community Survey will follow...

Stay tuned for Census’ American Community Survey (ACS) release on Thursday. The ACS has a large sample and consistent methodology. It measures uninsured status at a point in time, while the CPS counts people as uninsured only if they lack coverage the entire year. tinyurl.com/bdfadufc

As always, today's CPS data release shows that states that expanded Medicaid under the ACA had MUCH lower uninsured rates than the 10 holdout states that still haven’t expanded. tinyurl.com/bdfadufc

In a troubling finding, CPS data show that the uninsured rate for Black people rose significantly in 2024, potentially reflecting the fact that Medicaid is a disproportionately important source of coverage. tinyurl.com/bdfadufc

The 2024 CPS data reflected steep Medicaid coverage loss due to unwinding of a COVID-related Medicaid protection, partly offset by ACA marketplace gains due to enhanced premium tax credits and other policies. Those credits will expire soon if not extended. tinyurl.com/yc3rt45t

The 2024 uninsured rate held steady at 8%, statistically unchanged from 2023 & 2022, according to Census’ Current Population Survey (CPS). But looking ahead, 15 million more ppl will be uninsured under the R megabill and other policies. See our live blog on today’s Census data: tinyurl.com/bdfadufc

Implementing the Harmful Republican Megabill: a Timeline | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities The Republicans’ harmful megabill, enacted through budget reconciliation on July 4, 2025, will raise costs for families and take away health coverage, food assistance, and other essentials from...

We released a new interactive graphic showing key implementation dates for various provisions of the reconciliation law, including cuts to health care and other programs: www.cbpp.org/research/fed...

#Medicaid is a lifeline for more than 71 million people. Marking its 60th birthday with more than $900B in cuts isn't the celebration many of us had in mind, but Medicaid will continue to be a core part of our nation's health system.

Research Note: 5 Million Small Business Owners and Self-Employed Workers Likely Enrolled in ACA Marketplace in 2025 | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities The Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces are a key source of coverage for small business owners and self-employed workers, filling gaps that limited affordable coverage options for these enrollees.....

Small businesses owners and self-employed workers, who make up more than 1 in 4 marketplace enrollees, would be disproportionately harmed.
www.cbpp.org/research/hea...

If the tax credits expire, CBO estimates that higher premium costs would cause marketplace enrollment to plunge, with 4.2 million of the enrollees who lose coverage becoming uninsured. www.cbo.gov/system/files...

Marketplace enrollment more than doubled after the tax credits were enacted in 2021. As of Feb. 2025, 23.4 million were enrolled, with 21.8 million receiving tax credits to help pay for their health insurance.