Never thought I’d watch let alone enjoy multiview, but an excellent experience tonight.
Hi Graham - have done, though you may be best contacting me at omar@twentyfirstgroup.com
Must admit I haven’t looked; I’m very happy not knowing and doubling down on my belief that it‘s an enormous loss to the sport
What a moment! Caps a thoroughly enjoyable matchday 8. Last year was a damp squib but really, really enjoyed this evening
the biggest upset in FA Cup history. However, I think ‘shock’ is a more subjective assessment, and it is arguable that Macclesfield’s win is a bigger shock than, say Bradford’s win at Chelsea in 2015 (12/1 odds compared to 20/1 odds, if you’re that way inclined).
Can we get the panel’s verdict on Macclesfield’s ‘biggest FA Cup upset’ vs. ‘biggest shock’? I believe the former to be the correct technical assessment: ‘upset’ is shorthand for victory against a higher-division team, and as this was the largest difference in league places it is objectively…
... and to what extent that is portable to Man United. Our research shows that a manager's previous record is less predictive of how he will perform in a new role than how the previous coach performed at that club. (5/5)
Objectively great sport. Five switches of favourite 🎢
And again in Nigeria’s penalty defeat just now. It’s penalty taking 101 now
Pretty astonishing result in the NWSL today: Kansas City Current knocked out at home in the first round of the playoffs by 8th seed Gotham FC having put in - by far - the most dominant regular season record in the league’s history. US sports fans accept it, European men’s football fans would never…
Hi David, sure - drop me an email at omar@twentyfirstgroup.com
Wonderful Saturday morning read
Yeah those are the obvious top three. But after that? Maybe the Liebherr family? Maybe you Then you’re into provincial clubs like Burnley and Bournemouth, which is a totally different kettle of fish to owning one of the top 10 or 15 clubs in the country IMO
It’s a good question: of Premier League club owners in the last 24 years, how many would you put above Levy?
I don’t doubt that, but if you look at Everton for example, it’s clear clubs can stay below their ‘natural’ level for a very long time without good management
9 year average because that was the Premier League era, nothing more than that.
As for the 1960-80s point, it’s addressed in the full post: www.linkedin.com/posts/omar-c...
In terms of absolute difference in revenues, has there ever been a bigger upset in football, ever? c. £6m plays c. £600m.
How pre-season expectations for clubs have varied since 2015:
- Puts in context NEW & AVL's quick rise
- MCI forecast for 78 points, their lowest since 16/17
- Expectations up at EVE, but below pre-2022
- Market's view of BRE has been pretty consistent over time, save for going into 23/24
My hot take on the England-India series is that it was a great series but nowhere near as good as the 2023 Ashes for consistent drama and see-sawing. There were some pretty slow days (by admittedly high modern standards) and only one genuinely good pitch in the whole series. But an epic finish.
I think this is absolutely the case. England players certainly know it - but hard to imagine what it’s like in the moment
On tonight’s evidence, the time taken between the whistle and start of run up remains the strongest predictor of a penalty kick’s success.
Amazingly weird odds scenarios playing out here because of the skewed draw - England winning but their odds of reaching the final per our model has gone from 47% before Netherlands were ahead, to 26% now, while France have gone from 16% to 33% after falling behind.
Less about the comeback, more that one side needs to do just one small thing to secure victory - which isn’t generally possible in time-limited formats
Yes, exactly. I suppose chess has an equivalent too!
By my maths, Alcaraz was a minimum of 41 points from victory when Sinner was 1 point away. The only other sport that can parallel these scenarios (I think) is test cricket - a last-wicket pair needing over 50 to win. Makes for such great sport
Not seen this parallel drawn, but United’s win yesterday reminded me of Liverpool’s against Dortmund in 2016. Europa League quarter final, new manager, centre back with the winner. Liverpool’s perhaps more dramatic thanks to the away goals rule.
