Alexander Clarkson

Quite remarkable how so many on this site seem unable to process the possibility that this conflict can both be a strategic fiasco for the Americans as well as inflict irreparable damage on Iran's economy and state capacity that will affect the future trajectory of the IRGC regime.

Why the War with Iran Could Be a Long One The conditions that produce short wars are absent from Trump's war with Iran.

"The conditions that typically produce short wars—a decisive military advantage, an adversary willing to negotiate, and a clear political end game—are conspicuously absent in this conflict," Council Senior Nonresident @profpaulpoast.bsky.social and Pegah Banihashemi write in @time.com.

'Dubai is finished': Expats say they will leave and never come back Once a tax-free haven attracting influencers from across the globe and Brits seeking warm weather, Dubai's carefully crafted image has been shattered and residents believe it is 'finished'.

Tbc, the ultra-wealthy now supposedly fleeing Dubai are a relatively small part of the UAE's economic relevance

The mostly South Asian middle class 20-30 times their size and the presence of literally over a trillion dollars in sovereign wealth will likely keep it a regional pole of accumulation

Gaza and the Logic of High-Intensity Urban Warfare To analyze a war accurately, one must apply an analytical framework suited to its actual character. This requirement is nowhere more evident than in

It's disappointing that WOTR publish war crimes denial.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/gaza...

I end my history of the Republican Party with a question: What comes after Trump?

We are most likely looking at a prolonged, chaotic, and dirty struggle between different radical factions and different shades of extremism.

I was just disinvited from the Air War College where I’d been asked to lecture on my book, which is a history of U.S. civil-military relations.

If you're wondering why this war might drag on longer than many on this site think

Excellent article by Faysal Itani outlining the dilemmas faced by the Lebanese state.

A key section here but it is sharp enough that you should read the full piece
newlinesmag.com/spotlight/in...

1. "In this news report we will explain all the military risks and problems involved if the Trump administration does this thing"

2. Audience thinks Trump administration is not crazy enough to do this thing

3. Trump administration does that thing

#Kharg

Kind of remarkable how prophetic Larry Hama's work was in retrospect

Exactly. Everyone miscalculates and makes thing much worse in the process. US, Iran and Israel all together.

Interesting to see how the US military handles an ongoing war in the Gulf and Cuban state collapse at the same time

But hey, when Iran's state collapses in a few years time, US political discourse will have moved on to some other big domestic thing leaving Gulf, Europe and India to clean up the mess

As long as Trump is fed enough bad guy things go boom videos and remains cocooned from economic consequences this can go on for some time.

Long enough at least IMO to do fatal damage to Iran's economy and state capacity without directly toppling the IRGC.

Cuba though is pretty nailed on now as the next Trump crisis. And it will directly affect EU or EU/UK OCT territory around the Caribbean that contains 3 million people.

This war is going to last longer than most people including leaders in the US and Iran expect

It reroutes shipping routes through the Med and the Cape. So costs will go up but otherwise no it won't

Though it would be ironic if state collapse without a shot in the wake of a near total American blockade means these guys lose money on sociopathic Cuba bets

Snippet from @nickcohen.bsky.social that really resonates.

Eventually settlers are going to kill an Israeli providing protective presence. Given the current state of affairs in Israel, I’m not sure it will have any impact.

Something truly boomer in an FSB behaving as if no one ever managed to organise an infiltration or revolt before the internet existed

Which means the war will continue to the point where the Iranian state is fatally broken and American power is lastingly weakened

Both sides lose seems the most likely outcoms

And yet it has no options if this gambit fails

Do you mean historical lessons like World War 2 or Waterloo. I think this war is foolish but that doesn't remove the need to have a realistic view of historical precedents

I think the regime survives this war in some form. But as damage to Iran's economy and state capacity mounts the material conditions that define its long term trajectory will keep worsening

A lot of this will also severely damage the US. Especially in terms of readiness towards China. I'm not saying the US comes out of this well either

They were never willing to concede entirely on either nuclear, missile programmes or regional proxy militias. At least one of those options they will have to eventually put in play