Apurav Bhatiya

Aftale mellem Frankrig og Storbritannien skal bremse migrantstrøm over kanalen Kritikere tvivler på, at aftale mellem Storbritannien og Frankrig vil afskrække migranter fra at krydse Den Engelske Kanal

Migrants will not stop at last hurdle when they have invested so much to reach The English Channel. In @kristeligt-dagblad.dk @apuravbhatiya.bsky.social @fpalondon.bsky.social @ukandeu.bsky.social
www.kristeligt-dagblad.dk/udland/aftal...

How small boat crossings shift public opinion - UK in a changing Europe Apurav Bhatiya and Shanta Kadam analyse the impact of small boat crossings on public opinion towards migration in the UK.

"For UK policymakers, the key lesson is that controlling the story may matter as much as controlling the border."

✍️ @apuravbhatiya.bsky.social and Shanta Kadam analyse public opinion around small boat crossings and the impact it has on UK politics

Trying to stop migrants at final stage of their long, costly journey across the Channel misses the point. Many spend months and most of their resources just to reach northern France. Deterrence at the last hurdle will not work. The real fix is to reduce the need for such journeys in the first place.

How small boat crossings shift public opinion - UK in a changing Europe Apurav Bhatiya and Shanta Kadam analyse the impact of small boat crossings on public opinion towards migration in the UK.

An announcement is expected today from Starmer and Macron about a “one in, one out” migration deal on small boat crossings

Read @apuravbhatiya.bsky.social & Shanta Kadam's blog on public opinion and small boat crossings in the UK and the impact it has on UK politics

ukandeu.ac.uk/how-small-bo...

Byline Podcast: Small Boats - And The Rising Tide Of Racism The latest figures show that more than 19,000 migrants have arrived in the UK from France this year after crossing the channel in makeshift vessels, despite government pledges to destroy smuggling ...

As #smallboats dominate the news once again, @goldbergradio.bsky.social hears how the headlines stir up more hatred against ALL migrants.

With @zoejardiniere.bsky.social @apuravbhatiya.bsky.social
@bylinetimes.bsky.social

podfollow.com/byline-podca...

Small Boat crossings is one of the key agenda points on French President's visit to the UK this week. My new research shows that irregular migration in the English channel increases anti-immigration sentiment among the British public even towards legal migration routes. Read more in our blog below:

The impact of welfare reforms - lessons from history Many in opposition to the government's proposed welfare cuts describe the bill as 'Dickensian' and 'from another era'. While the debate continues, we highlight the work of CAGE Research Associates Eri...

“.. welfare cuts are felt most strongly by those who are already economically vulnerable and can therefore exacerbate existing inequalities.” Research by @ericmelander.bsky.social and Martina Miotto analyses the impact of the 1834 reforms – the largest welfare cut in British history. buff.ly/5CdCJWw

Byline Podcast: Small Boats - And The Rising Tide Of Racism The latest figures show that more than 19,000 migrants have arrived in the UK from France this year after crossing the channel in makeshift vessels, despite government pledges to destroy smuggling ...

"Immigration is going to happen anyway. Currently it is being extremely poorly managed..."

@zoejardiniere.bsky.social @apuravbhatiya.bsky.social a join @goldbergradio.bsky.social to talk about small boats & migration

From @bylinetimes.bsky.social

podfollow.com/byline-podca...

Great discussion on latest figures of people crossing the Channel in small boats, & how hostility towards them has us caught in a doom-loop that prevents the sane, humane management of immigration #r4today

Thank you @bylinetimespod.bsky.social 😊

We also find:
- Higher Google searches for “small boats” & “English Channel crossings”
- More people name immigration as most pressing issue
- Increase in perception of high immigration levels
Irregular migration may be small in scale but big in political impact. Full paper here: shorturl.at/vtRaJ

Why? Because irregular migration is not just news—it is narrative. Media coverage spikes after crossings, especially in right-leaning outlets who frame it as crime and loss of border control. Left-leaning media can offset anti-immigration attitudes, but only those with low baseline concern.

We study small boat crossings across English Channel—highly visible and heavily politicised.
Linking daily arrival data with panel survey responses from the BES, we show migrant crossings reduce support for all migration—including legal routes.
Recent policy changes closely mirror these shifts.

Illegal migration tops the political agenda.
Trump vows mass deportations. Starmer wants to “Smash the Gangs”. Sunak pledged to “Stop the Boats”.
Yet its hidden nature makes it hard to track and harder to study its impact on public attitudes.
My new paper digs in. 🧵 #EconSky

How Negative Media Headlines About Small Boat Crossings Are Turning Brits Against All Migrants New research finds that disproportionate coverage of the relatively low numbers crossing the English channel is turning British people against all incomers

"Although they account for a small fraction of total migration....their visibility and symbolic weight give them disproportionate influence over public perception"
Media coverage of 'small boat" crossings
@bylinetimes.bsky.social
bylinetimes.com/2025/06/19/h...

Calling UKRI-funded doctoral students interested in migration!

Apply for an internship with the Migration Advisory Committee - deadline 8th Sept

www.ukri.org/apply-for-fu...

Applications still open for the 2025 @ubeconomics.bsky.social on "The Political Economy of Immigration."

☀️ 30 June – 4 July, 2025 | Barcelona

📅 Deadline: June 15th

Lecturers: @andreassteinmayr.net and @tsurovtseva.bsky.social.

More info: www.ub.edu/school-econo... #EconSky #polisky

Just published in @jpube.bsky.social:

"When do voters ‘rally around the flag’? The salience of political messages"

By Yatish Arya & @apuravbhatiya.bsky.social

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

#econsky

Our next seminar is on Monday, 2/June 2025.
We welcome 👉Dean Yang👈 (Michigan), who will present "Ancient Epics in the Television Age: Mass Media, Identity, and the Rise of Hindu Nationalism in India", joint with @pbrimble.bsky.social, @resuf.bsky.social, Akhila Kovvuri & Alessandro Saia

🎓 LAST CHANCE! Early Bird booking for #RES2025 ends TONIGHT (Fri 16 May)! ⏳

Join us this June in sunny Birmingham for:
🌟 Top keynotes
🤖 AI/ML session
📊 Special sessions from @nuffieldfoundation.org @bankofengland.bsky.social ADR UK & more
🤝 Networking + childcare
🔗 bit.ly/47D8h4y

#EconSky #AI

Full Text: “When do voters rally around the flag? The salience of political messages” (with Yatish Arya), Journal of Public Economics, 2025 doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...

Moments like the current escalation are not just military responses—they are political signals. When national security takes centre stage in the electoral narrative, it can sideline other issues (youth unemployment) and shift voter support toward national parties and strong leadership.

Survey data shows that voters in constituencies affected by conflict events are more likely to prioritise national security and credit the incumbent for a strong response. Among them, those with higher media connectivity are even more likely to support the BJP—consistent with salience effects.

Political speeches and media coverage are powerful tools for making national security salient. When leaders highlight it repeatedly and the media sustains attention, these issues shape the public conversation and influence voting behaviour.

Modi’s strongman image plays directly into this strategy. When violence is framed as a national security crisis—with talk of “terror camps” and “decisive leadership”—governments can turn such moments into political gains.

We show that conflict events—especially when tied to secessionist violence and amplified by political rhetoric and media—can trigger a strong “rally around the flag” effect, leading to increased electoral support for the incumbent.

India launched missile strikes into Pakistan, triggering a serious escalation following the #PahalgamTerrorAttack that killed 28 civilians. Our new paper in the @jpube.bsky.social offers a timely lens to understand the political consequences of such events. #econsky
🧵Here:

Full Text: “When do voters 'rally around the flag'? The salience of political messages” (with Yatish Arya), Journal of Public Economics, 2025 doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...

Moments like the current escalation are not just military responses—they are political signals. When national security takes centre stage in the electoral narrative, it can sideline other issues (youth unemployment) and shift voter support toward national parties and strong leadership.

Survey data shows that voters in constituencies affected by conflict events are more likely to prioritise national security and credit the incumbent for a strong response. Among them, those with higher media connectivity are even more likely to support the BJP—consistent with salience effects.

Political speeches and media coverage are powerful tools for making national security salient. When leaders highlight it repeatedly and the media sustains attention, these issues shape the public conversation and influence voting behaviour.