Madeleine Sumption

I think I heard @jburnmurdoch.ft.com say this increase is down to a a change in the way the numbers are calculated rather than a major shift in migration patterns.

New data provides fascinating insights into outcomes of recent refugees granted status between 2015 and 2020

Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability

link to data in reply

Useful new stats from Home Office on how asylum applicants travel to the UK

Significant increase in applications from people on visas (mostly work, study or visit), not just small boats

Also large differences by nationality: Pakistani and Bangladeshi applicants much more likely to come on visas

I think the "it's all about Brexit" argument has been overstated but I also suspect that UK access to Eurodac could make a reasonably significant difference

There has been some interesting, more recent qualitative evidence that being refused in Europe or not wanting to be moved within the EU under Dublin rules has become a significant reason for coming to the UK, but very hard to know the scale of this phenomenon

➤ UK will prioritise applications for transfers to UK (criteria not specified)
➤ Ppl deemed a security threat can’t be transferred in either direction
2/2

UK/France: Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys [CS France No.2/2025] This treaty was presented to Parliament in August 2025.

Text of the UK-France small boats treaty published. Key points:

➤ Process to take up to 3 months from arrival in UK
➤ Doesn’t apply to unaccompanied minors
➤ FR can refuse to accept specific ppl back & will give aggregated data on reasons for refusals... 1/2

www.gov.uk/government/p...

I’ve always wondered how employers & workers split the cost of UK immigration fees

Here it is for Skilled Worker visas from a Home Office survey of sponsors

Surprisingly little variation by industry/employer size (in underlying data tables)

www.gov.uk/government/p...

The sadist assault on the ‘Coldplay couple’

unherd.com/2025/07/the-...

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

Nice paper on Australian regional visas, which push migrants to live outside of major metro areas

Ppl on regional visas much more likely to stay in the 'regions' if they were in cities, not remote/rural areas

Middle-aged migrants w kids most likely to stay put

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Makes sense given that the argument that refugees provide significant economic benefits are actually substantively not particularly convincing

Interesting paper: survey experiment finds US public are unconvinced by economic arguments in favour of admitting refugees, more convinced by moral arguments

Legal arguments only convincing on the left

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

@sblinder.bsky.social

Is the British government is really going to be able to co-ordinate with industry to replace migrant workers with domestic ones?

@johnspringford.bsky.social asked @msumption.bsky.social this and much more on the latest episode of the #CERpodcast.
Listen here: www.cer.eu/media/cer-po...

UK-France and UK-EU cooperation on small boat arrivals: what are the options? - Migration Observatory This Q&A discusses the evidence related to UK-EU co-operation on asylum and unauthorised migration.

Plenty of recent speculation about whether a UK-France deal on small boat returns will be announced this week.

Would such a deal bring down arrivals? And what are some other options for improved cooperation with France and the EU?

New commentary 👇

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

I am writing a policy pamphlet. Here are all the ways to demonstrate I don't really have a policy answer, that I need to avoid:

a. You call for a "national conversation or debate"
b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture”
1/

Our Director @msumption.bsky.social on Today Programme this morning talking about why the care visa has been so difficult to manage

Full interview 00:50 minutes into the programme: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Ah ok that makes more sense. Thanks!

Thanks
There’s also a small and slightly random looking list of rqf3-5 workers explicitly prevented from switching employers, right? (Including reiki healers…)
Any idea why?

Immigration lawyers: am I right in thinking that Statement of Changes says a) mid-skilled workers coming on the Temp Shortage List; & b) ppl switching in-country to care jobs DO still have path to ILR, at least for the moment?
@colinyeo.bsky.social @jonkingh.bsky.social @johnvassiliou.bsky.social

Pleased to share my new article in Migration Studies @MigrationJrnl on why it’s so much harder than it sounds for government to select the “best and brightest” migrants

I illustrate using the example of two widely criticized 'investor visa' programmes
academic.oup.com/migration/ar...

I think part of the problem is that our official statistical ethnicity categories are badly designed: by using the word 'British' they mix ethnicity and citizenship in a confusing way. This is unusual internationally. Ethnicity is different from citizenship

Closure of loophole to keep terrorists and extremists out of the UK A law has been introduced to prevent British citizenship being reinstated to people considered a national security risk following a successful initial appeal.

"This narrowly focussed bill... makes no change to a person’s existing right to appeal any decision to remove their British citizenship, and doesn’t widen the reasons for which a person could be deprived of their citizenship", the Home Office says www.gov.uk/government/n...

The 2031 UK census is happening after all Endorsement by statistics agencies is a row-back from previous position

open.substack.com/pub/georgina...

Our latest briefing on migrants in the UK labour market charts the remarkable shift away from EU towards non-EU workers over the past few years

Plus data on migrants' earnings, use of universal credit, overqualification, and much more...

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

Is Britain ready for BritCard? Labour is re-entering risky political space with digital ID proposal

I've started a substack 🙌📩 Subscribe now for weekly articles where I explore the data behind the big policy issues.

In my first post I ask why new proposals for a digital ID card make me so uneasy, despite the possible benefits.

Is Britain ready for BritCard? tinyurl.com/yawwd6jd

What rights do unauthorised migrants get?

Interesting new paper looks at what rights 28 European countries give ppl without legal right to be there

Most countries allow access to emergency care & kids' schooling, few (unsurprisingly) offer financial support

cadmus.eui.eu/entities/pub...

If you stare at the data unscientifically it does seem we often have high numbers of arrivals in the couple of days after a long string of zeroes, but would need actual statistics to confirm - it’s feasible to do, though - will look into it!

Genuine question: is there anything I’ve missed here that means weather might plausibly have an impact over periods of several months?

Here's the link to the HO data: www.gov.uk/government/s...

Or b) we must assume weather is major bottleneck for smugglers & many more people want to travel but gangs simply can't them across because there aren’t enough calm-weather days
But gangs *can* facilitate 1000+ crossings on some days. Most days with crossings have a few hundred

3. For good weather to have long-term impact on boat arrivals, we need to assume one of two things:

Either a) ppl casually drop migration plans due to few days bad weather and decide to migrate elsewhere
It's a massive life decision – surely they'll just wait for next opportunity