9/ A sanity check, forget the lag model entirely.
The annual mean took 30 years to go from 0.5°C to 1.0°C, and 14 years to go from 1.0°C to 1.5°C.
If the next 0.5°C takes the same 14 years, we reach 2.0°C around 2038.
Not 2050.
Are we prepared for that?
I've updated the Climate Dashboard to use the new 11-model ENSO multi-model mean to help predict 2026 temperatures.
It caused the 2026 estimate to jump from 1.45C to 1.51C, reflecting the much higher likelihood of a strong El Nino developing: dashboard.theclimate...
In "The Kraken Wakes" John Wyndham - the aliens first disrupt international shipping lanes. When that is not a knockout blow they melt the Greenland ice sheet flooding major cities. Turns out the current POTUS is the kraken. Highlighting 2 of the weakest parts of modern civilization.
Orbital - Samantha Harvey.
Based on the NASA CERES data (used for the Hansen et al. climate sensitivity estimates), the current rate of heat uptake (and the relative fluxes) are at the very edge of CMIP6/IPCC estimates.
If the NASA satellite data is correct, the IPCC best estimate and resulting carbon budgets etc are wrong
Frightening that if global temp increase is now >0.3degC/decade then already have to factor in 0.1degC from 2023 values from increased forcing. The world (natural & human systems) cannot withstand such rapid change.
The presumed upcoming El Nino will help cement and quantify global warming acceleration, showing that 2C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.
See Another El Nino Already? mailchi.mp/caa/another-... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/another-el...
🚨BREAKING NEWS!
Medics that broke windows at JP Morgan HQ to expose fossil fuel financing links to climate devastation found NOT GUILTY today by jurors.
The climate crisis is a health crisis and health professionals have a duty to act when lives are at risk.
Read more here:
healthforxr.com
Grazalema, Spain, received over 2,000 mm (78 inches) of rain in just the last 20 days.
Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.
The optimist vs pessimist divide in #climate debates isn’t usually about the data.
It’s about how the same graphs are read, what people emphasise, what they discount, and how they interpret pace and stakes.
Here’s what I mean 🧵👇
You also have to separate 'pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will'. I also feel seen as a pessimist on all those points but also call myself an optimist because if most people saw the issue through that lens they would realize the urgency & pull together and do what needs to be done.
Is this only "on grid" capacity? Other sources say NG added 50Gw in 2025 (mainly data centres) and could add >100GW in 2026. For 99% that would put renewables at 10Tw in 2026 - unrealistic. Or is it that NG plant take a long time to build? See: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Please spread this far and wide, as stories don't get much bigger than this. When the government blocks even the intelligence services from telling us we're heading for environmental catastrophe, you know we have a problem. A very big problem.
Thank you.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Holy crap.
This is the most damning video yet.
It shows Border Patrol agents clearly taking Alex's firearm, running it away, and THEN executed him in cold blood by emptying a clip into his face.
Murder.
Just told the BBC via "haveyoursay" that they must've seen the social media videos. You don't say 'it might be raining or it might not' when you can look out the window. Abdication of proper journalism.
“Wood burning has been linked to increased risks of
heart and lung disease, lung cancer, strokes &
adverse pregnancy conditions and is one of the main sources of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)”
Don’t burn wood in the home.
#AirPollution
You may’ve seen coverage of a new report on the threat to national security from environmental collapse.
A common response that’s got my goat is: “Look, it’s not just tree-hugging enviros saying this, it’s hard-nosed spooks!”
A short thread on why this framing is bad history & bad politics🧵😡😉
Well for clouds at least it seems that most recent models are under-estimating the albedo reduction. Gulp. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
The latest episode of PBS Weathered discusses climate sensitivity and the under representation in IPCC publications of likely future pathways of extreme heating.
Worth watching!
How does this compare with model values? If albedo loss is more than in models how does this change the pathway we are on? E g. How much emitted CO2e does this equate to? Is that a valid conversion?
“A species capable of extraordinary insight, yet seemingly incapable of acting in its own long-term interest”:
Professor Kevin Anderson on the CO2 Newsletter, VoI 1, no 1
allouryesterdays.info/2026/01/11/a...
Clips from Professor @mikebernerslee.bsky.social's powerful opening & closing statements at the National Emergency Briefing.
"We are asking for a WW2 level of leadership. Leadership, as if the survival of our society depends on it... because it does."
#NEB2025 #NationalEmergencyBriefing
We will either end fossil fuel dependency and the predatory extractivist basis of global production, or they will end us through wars and ecological collapse - all at the same time.
Want to learn what we know about #AMOC risk in under 15 minutes? Here's a video of my latest talk, in Helsinki in October. 6/6
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULJX...
With a dozen crazy events like this now happening every day
I almost admire the discipline it takes for corp news & white liberals to still, even as we cross 1.5C warming,
pretend we’re not in a real time global emergency.
Looking for climate experts at #AGU25 right now who can comment on these administration plans to break up UCAR. DMs open.
And now making a similar mistake.It is ppm of CO2 that drives global heating & that should be the main metric for CO2 & CO2 ppm is still accelerating.It's like measuring the speed of a car by amount of power output by the engine (foot on the gas).OK on flat roads but useless when going up/downhill.
Part of the disconnect here is the foregrounding of human CO2 emissions & therefore externalising the reduction in absorption of CO2 by Earth systems which is wrong because that is caused by human action. A major cause of environmental apocalypse is externalising the costs e.g CO2 emissions
As a climate scientist, the most charitable thing I can say is that this guy's a fucking moron.
It’s common sense to proactively address/mitigate climate change.
It’s common sense to reduce pollution, emissions and particulates in cities.
It’s common sense to proactively cool cities, quiet cities, clean cities.
It’s common sense to move more people in less space and with lower public costs.
