Jesse Eisinger

With oil at $110, I’d guess the equity markets give up another 3-5% over the next few days.

And then Trump TACOs.

The result? The war will have succeeded in clearing out the Iranian gerontocracy for a new generation of younger extremist Mullahs.

“Americans are very lucky, because wherever they go to bring freedom… they find oil.” - Michele Serra, Italian journalist

Slurs Filled a Chat Created by a Republican Party Official in Florida

passive voice final boss grand champion honorable mention award for turning slurs into a sentient thing that can do actions www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/u...

There is a legal provision in immigration law that someone married to a US citizen can stay in the US while there visa is pending. Immigration officials have long recognized it to allow residency during the wait time. The DHS has just stopped following this part of the law.

The screaming will continue until the news improves

A few hours after NYT reported that the U.S. bombed an elementary school in Iran, killing many children, the White House last night posted this video mixing airstrike footage with Top Gun, Iron Man, Gladiator, Halo, Breaking Bad, Star Wars, John Wick, Superman, Transformers and Dragon Ball Z

Green shoots on the labor market wilted with the BLS reporting the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February.

Job growth in December was also revised to -17,000 from +48,000, lowering the 3-month average hiring to 6,000 (all of it in January).

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%.

Genuinely fascinating divergence.
Oil and energy market types: really beginning to freak out.
Global macro types: mostly relatively calm and expecting this to all blow over.

Got a lot of pleasure from that line

Every note is perfect

Desi Lydic Foxsplains the not-war in Iran that Trump didn't start and also already won

Nature Report, Killed by Trump, Is Released Independently

The report highlights the grim state of freshwater ecosystems, degraded marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and the risk of extinction for many species. But it also emphasizes the potential for improvement through conservation, restoration, and renewed connections between people and nature.

New must follow!

(What’s the opposite of enshittification?)

Welcome:

@doctorow.pluralistic.net

ICE detains reporter Estefany Rodríguez in Nashville - Nashville Banner Reporter Estefany Rodríguez, detained by ICE with no arrest warrant, may face deportation. Her attorneys seek immediate review of the legality of her case.

ICE has arrested and detained a Nashville journalist who reported stories critical of ICE. She’s married to a U.S. citizen and has been seeking asylum here after fleeing death threats in Colombia because of her journalism there.

They’ve already sent her to Louisiana.

subtle

"It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months."

— Donald Rumsfeld on the Iraq War (7 Feb 2003).

Note: It’s not normal for US bond prices to fall (yields go up) during a period of war, uncertainty and with a rising price of oil acting to slow economic activity.

Stocks down, Treasuries down, dollar down.

Sell America trade in effect.

Read the story wot did it*

www.propublica.org/article/kris...

*I mean, it helped

Sen. Blumenthal has written a letter to Kristi Noem about her denial that Corey Lewandowski has a role in approving contracts at DHS.

"I demand that you amend your testimony" and "provide the basis for your apparent false statement on the record."

www.blumenthal.senate.gov/imo/media/do...

Explore Financial Disclosures From President Trump and 1,500 of His Appointees - ProPublica Use this database to explore potential conflicts of interest for President Donald Trump and his team. The documents disclose positions officials have held outside government, their assets and their de...

NEW: Over the past year, we've been collecting thousands of financial disclosure documents from across the Trump administration. Now we're making them searchable. Look up names, assets, former employers across 1,500+ Trump appointees and 3,000+ ethics documents.

Kraken Becomes First Crypto Firm to Win Access to Fed’s Core Payments System The decision means the industry is a step closer to becoming integrated into the mainstream financial system.

The @federalreserve.gov just granted a crypto company—Kraken—access to its public payment services for the first time.

More evidence that crypto’s success is not as an *alternative* to the existing financial system but to capture the existing payment infrastructure.
www.wsj.com/finance/regu...

Bettors wagered $54 million on Khamenei’s death. Now they’re not getting paid. Kalshi, a prediction market site, has sparked outrage after freezing $54 million in bets on the death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, citing a rule against profiting from death.

New: I talked to the traders who bet Khamenei would die.

One, an Israeli ex-pat, would've won $63,000 before Kalshi froze the bet: “I was booking my trip to Courchevel.”

“American commercial immorality on steroids," @chrismurphyct.bsky.social told me

www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...

Kristi Noem Misled Congress About Top Aide’s Role in DHS Contracts Testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Noem denied that Corey Lewandowski had any role in approving contracts. But internal DHS records and interviews with current and former agency staffer...

NEWS: Kristi Noem misled Congress yesterday.

She said that Corey Lewandowski isn't playing a role in DHS contracts.

That's not true.

(N.B. She's testifying today in front of the House. Someone might ask her about this.)

www.propublica.org/article/kris...

Gulf States in Race Against Time to Repel Iran’s Onslaught There are only so many air-defense interceptors available to knock down an almost limitless number of drones.

A crucial variable in this war is whether these monarchies start running out of interceptors before the Iranian regime runs out of projectiles.
At current burn rates, it could be very soon.

www.wsj.com/world/gulf-s...

Retail gasoline prices were up $0.11/gallon yesterday. Will probably make this a thread until it settles down:

Hey, cool. @lastweektonight.com just did a segment using reporting I did w/ @farooqumar.bsky.social

Oliver was talking about body cams--and how law enforcement agencies have often undermined their potential

The same body-cams Dems are centering that ICE reforms on

www.youtube.com/watch?v=jP4_...

Platner sat for lengthy interview with antisemitic conspiracy theorist, said he was ‘longtime fan’ of his show Weeks before Graham Platner promoted an antisemitic conspiracy theorist in a now-deleted social media post on Thursday, the controversial Maine Senate candidate appeared on a popular YouTube show whos...

At a certain point you just cannot keep extending someone the benefit of the doubt. www.yahoo.com/news/article...

So instead of “regime change,” are we actually merely doing the younger generation of hardliners a favor by clearing out the gerontocrats?

Iran’s *new* leadership? New like …the president, foreign minister, head of the national security council and chief justice, all of whom are in the same positions they held on Friday?