Peter Hull

New paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár on leniency/judge IV designs.

This article is targeted for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, and so we wrote it with the goal of being accessible to a wide range of users, including advanced undergrads!🧵

arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572

We also show, (as @instrumenthull.bsky.social loves to show!), that UJIVE can be used to assess the compiler characteristics of the leniency design. If the compliers look similar to the full sample on observables, that's evidence your treatment effects may generalize beyond the complier population.

Developing a step-by-step guide to leniency designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures, from Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, @instrumenthull.bsky.social, and Michal Kolesár www.nber.org/papers/w34473

NBER grants to fund research into economic measurement - I find this agenda very compelling and important #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/news/nber-la...

Economics of Race and Stratification, Spring 2026

The NBER Race and Stratification Working Group will have its annual meeting on Friday, March 27, 2026. Francisca Antman, Bocar Ba, Robynn Cox and I are organizing the program. Submit your paper by the December 11, 2025 deadline! @nber.org #EconSky

www.nber.org/conferences/...

Why are guinea-pigs the colours they are? Sewall's got a DAG for that.

We couldn't not rate this classic early DAG by our beloved collective granddagy, Sewall Wright.

14/10. Ten for the DAG, plus one for each cute guinea-pig node.

From Wright (1920) "The Relative Importance of Heredity and Environment in Determining the Piebald Pattern of Guinea-Pigs"

Comparing Experimental and Nonexperimental Methods: What Lessons Have We Learned Four Decades after LaLonde (1986)? (Fall 2025) - In 1986, Robert LaLonde published an article comparing nonexperimental estimates to experimental benchmarks (LaLonde 1986). He concluded that the nonexperimental methods at the time coul...

An Imbens retrospective on experimental v. non-experimental methods — looks like a must-read www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull, Michal Koles\'ar: Leniency Designs: An Operator's Manual https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.03572 https://arxiv.org/html/2511.03572

Leniency Designs: An Operator's Manual We develop a step-by-step guide to leniency (a.k.a. judge or examiner instrument) designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures. The unbiased jackknife instrumental variables estimator (UJIVE) is...

Excited to post a new working paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár: arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572

Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!

From the nextfuckinglevel community on Reddit: Pirates of the Caribbean themed decorations Explore this post and more from the nextfuckinglevel community

Found @instrumenthull.bsky.social 's lawn: www.reddit.com/r/nextfuckin...

Zero new jobs in the federal government posted on JOE in the past three weeks.
Not surprising given the government shutdown (which began Oct 1), but still grim. At least two-thirds fewer such jobs posted in 2025 than in each of the past six years at this time.
#econjobmarket

Had a blast hosting Peter Hull from Brown University for the BeNA Lecture Series 2025 at DIW Berlin - German Institute for Economic Research. Peter and his co-authors have done for formula IVs what… |... Had a blast hosting Peter Hull from Brown University for the BeNA Lecture Series 2025 at DIW Berlin - German Institute for Economic Research. Peter and his co-authors have done for formula IVs what ot...

It was a gift!

www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

Thanks BeNA (and Berlin) for a great few days!

Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

everything peter hull: www.nber.org/papers/w27845

shift-share is the new black

📢 Save the date!

Join the BeNA Lecture Series with Peter Hull (Brown University) on Shift-Share & Recentered IV

📅 Oct 9–10, 2025
📍 DIW Berlin

Deep dive into modern econometric methods + a research talk + office hours.

Register by Sep 25, 2025!
labor-research.net/2025/08/29/b...

Check out the recording!

www.chamberlainseminar.org/past-seminar...

My coauthors and I are hiring a project coordinator for new research on an innovative jail-based rehabilitation paper (IGNITE), building on our recent QJE

Apply at careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/project...

My coauthors and I are hiring a project coordinator for new research on an innovative jail-based rehabilitation paper (IGNITE), building on our recent QJE

Apply at careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/project...

DM'd you

Come hear what Larry Katz, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Kei Hirano, Francesca Molinari, and Andres Santos think about publishing econometrics in general interest journals!

Tomorrow's Chamberlain Seminar: 12pm ET

Chamberlain Seminar The Gary Chamberlain Online Seminar in Econometrics

Zoom!

www.chamberlainseminar.org

Come hear what Larry Katz, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Kei Hirano, Francesca Molinari, and Andres Santos think about publishing econometrics in general interest journals!

Tomorrow's Chamberlain Seminar: 12pm ET

New 'Metrics Note! "One weird trick" to characterize compliers / the effective population underlying design-based OLS & IV specifications

Check it out: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lgba6...

signal chat, actually

The Chamberlain Seminar continues this semester with two exciting online sessions on 9/26 & 10/31! Check out the details below and click below to join our mailing list!

mailman.stanford.edu/mailman/list...

The Chamberlain Seminar continues this semester with two exciting online sessions on 9/26 & 10/31! Check out the details below and click below to join our mailing list!

mailman.stanford.edu/mailman/list...

New 'Metrics Note! "One weird trick" to characterize compliers / the effective population underlying design-based OLS & IV specifications

Check it out: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lgba6...

Thrilled that @instrumenthull.bsky.social agreed to share his knowledge in Berlin. Sign up now! Let me know in case of questions 👋

Can conditional expectation of a non-constant function not depend on a conditioning variable under a completeness condition? my coauthors and I have been struggling with the following question: Let $(X,Y,Z,W)$ be random variables with support on $\mathbb{R}^{4}$ such that the conditional expectation operator with respect...

Trying my luck here: @jiafengkevinchen.bsky.social, @instrumenthull.bsky.social, and I just posted a question about conditional expectations under a nonparametric completeness condition. Any thoughts & suggestions much appreciated!

stats.stackexchange.com/questions/66...

A Jail Reform Success Story (SSIR) Sheriffs in Genesee County, Michigan, created an education and job-training program for inmates that reduced recidivism by transforming jail culture.

ssir.org/articles/ent...