Antony Green

Farrer – a Liberal or National Seat? In a previous post published on Friday, I went through a detailed history of the Farrer electorate. In short, the seat was created in 1949. Until 1983 the seat was based on the southern NSW rural c…

s Farrer more traditionally a Liberal or National seat? I break down the last Liberal versus National contest in 2001 by local government area. But boundary changes since have added a big slice of National voting territory from the Riverina.
antonygreen.com.au/farrer-a-lib...

My latest post is a big drop of new data. For the first time I publish two-party preferred preference data in so-called Non-Classic divisions, including high profile Independents. Data for the 2019, 2022 and 2025 elections. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-inde...

The Coalition to face a messy by-election in Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer After losing the Liberal leadership this morning, Sussan Ley has announced she will resign as member for her southern NSW seat of Farrer. Ley has held the seat since 2001 when she took it from the …

Coalition to face messy by-election in Farrer with Sussan Ley retiring. Certain to be Liberal and National candidates, One Nation in the field with the liklehood of local Independents as well.
antonygreen.com.au/will-the-coa...

The success of local Independents, the contest in Kooyong and what it tells us about where national politics is going.
antonygreen.com.au/the-success-...

One Nation finished as one of the top three candidates versus Labor and the Coalition in 25 seats last May. These seats with One Nation in the 3CP would be amongst the legitimate first targets for the party on current polling. antonygreen.com.au/one-nations-...

As in the past, the Nationals have increased their % of Coalition seats in opposition. The collapse in Liberal seats has delivered the Nationals more power, but can National policy priorities fight ONP and help Liberals win city seats? antonygreen.com.au/here-we-go-a...

The Coalition split and the re-emergence of One Nation. Lessons on what a 20% vote for One Nation looks like from the only other election to produce such a result, Queensland 1998. antonygreen.com.au/the-coalitio...

My wrap of the Federal election result in Queensland. It continues to be Labor's worst state, but as in 2022, not bad enough to deny Labor victory. Labor gained seven seats including two from the Greens and Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...

Do voters just copy how-to-vote preference recommendations? Clearly not if you look at available data. Here's some Christmas reading with my latest post on HTVs and preferences based on data from the 2022 South Australian election. antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...

More party name games. The VEC has approved a name change, Companions and Pets Party now known as End Mass Migration - Reform AU. Might be a crowded field by later in the year. Though there will be no benefit from group voting tickets if they are abolished as promised. #springst

I'm back to looking at the 2025 Federal election result, this time explaining the Victorian results. At the start of the campaign Victoria was where Labor could lose the election, but in the end the state delivered Labor a record result. More detail here. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...

You would need to elect 2 extra Senators to go from 12 to 14 per state. So you would have 8 at the first election then 7 at future half-Senate elections.

If the Senate were increased to 14 Senators per state in 2028, as is rumoured, the next half-Senate election would be for 8 Senators with the quota reduced to 11.1%. That would be very tempting for One Nation.

Talk of One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce taking a NSW Senate seat from the Nationals is not correct. The NSW Coalition agreement reserves Senate spot 2 for the Nationals in 2028. It would be the third Liberal seat at risk. Unless the Coalition polls under 20%.

I had a few problems getting my SA Election blog post to re-publish but finally sorted it out. SA Electoral pendulum with colour coded seat maps is now working at new address antonygreen.com.au/electoral-pe...

I've updated my South Australian election pendulum article with colour coded maps of the electorates. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/

A post on the SA Liberal Leadership change today, including an electoral pendulum for the state election in March 2026, and some notes on retiring members and the more complex contests at the election. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/

Comments on the weekend's Hinchinbrook by-election. Strong support for Premier Crisafulli in his home town of Ingham, a major setback for Katter's Australian Party, a strong vote for One Nation, and why did Labor bother? antonygreen.com.au/comments-on-... #qldpol

An analysis of the changing pattern between 2010 and 2025 of Greens support across electoral divisions, and the continuing increase in the flows of Green preferences to Labor. antonygreen.com.au/comparing-gr... #auspol

I was searching for something else in the distribution when I discovered that bundle with increased value. An example that will help push the case for reform.

Antony Green's Election Blog Musings on Elections and Politics

The NSW Senate election saw weird distortions in the count when Mehreen Faruqi (GRN) passed quota. Suddenly 3,145 Coalition votes in her total became 7,549 in her surplus. Here's why plus an explainer on why Senate counting formulas need to change.
antonygreen.com.au/time-to-chan...

In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...

It’s in the collection but no idea if or when it will be used in a display.

Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.

Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...

They may come to regret it.

Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025. antonygreen.com.au/background-o...

NSW State District of Kiama set for By-election The resignation of former Independent MP Gareth Ward has set the stage for a by-election in his south coast seat of Kiama. Ward has first elected as Liberal member for Kiama in 2011 at the Coalitio…

Background on the looming NSW Kiama state by-election following the resignation this morning of convicted MP Gareth Ward. antonygreen.com.au/nsw-state-di...

TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...

FED2025 – Four Graphs on Labor’s Landslide Victory The ‘L’ word hasn’t featured much in post-election coverage, but it’s time to be clear about the result. The re-election of the Albanese government has been a landslide vict…

Four graphs that help explain Labor's landslide victory as well as the continuing decline in major party support. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-four...