Antony Green

A post on the SA Liberal Leadership change today, including an electoral pendulum for the state election in March 2026, and some notes on retiring members and the more complex contests at the election. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/

Comments on the weekend's Hinchinbrook by-election. Strong support for Premier Crisafulli in his home town of Ingham, a major setback for Katter's Australian Party, a strong vote for One Nation, and why did Labor bother? antonygreen.com.au/comments-on-... #qldpol

An analysis of the changing pattern between 2010 and 2025 of Greens support across electoral divisions, and the continuing increase in the flows of Green preferences to Labor. antonygreen.com.au/comparing-gr... #auspol

I was searching for something else in the distribution when I discovered that bundle with increased value. An example that will help push the case for reform.

Antony Green's Election Blog Musings on Elections and Politics

The NSW Senate election saw weird distortions in the count when Mehreen Faruqi (GRN) passed quota. Suddenly 3,145 Coalition votes in her total became 7,549 in her surplus. Here's why plus an explainer on why Senate counting formulas need to change.
antonygreen.com.au/time-to-chan...

In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...

It’s in the collection but no idea if or when it will be used in a display.

Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.

Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...

They may come to regret it.

Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025. antonygreen.com.au/background-o...

NSW State District of Kiama set for By-election The resignation of former Independent MP Gareth Ward has set the stage for a by-election in his south coast seat of Kiama. Ward has first elected as Liberal member for Kiama in 2011 at the Coalitio…

Background on the looming NSW Kiama state by-election following the resignation this morning of convicted MP Gareth Ward. antonygreen.com.au/nsw-state-di...

TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...

FED2025 – Four Graphs on Labor’s Landslide Victory The ‘L’ word hasn’t featured much in post-election coverage, but it’s time to be clear about the result. The re-election of the Albanese government has been a landslide vict…

Four graphs that help explain Labor's landslide victory as well as the continuing decline in major party support. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-four...

FED2025 – Why One Nation’s Senate victories show that the 2016 Senate electoral reforms were right Depending on your point of view, the election of One Nation Senators to represent New South Wales and Western Australia is either vindication of Malcolm Turnbull’s 2016 Senate electoral reforms, or…

antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-why-...

2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results This post will update over the next two weeks as counting for the 2025 Western Australian Legislative Assembly (lower house) election is finalised. Originally the post just covered changes in membe…

Some initial analysis of the 2025 WA election comparing the results by party with when Labor was elected to office in 2017. The result was worse for the Liberal Party in votes, and considerably worse in terms of seats. antonygreen.com.au/2025-western... #wavotes

The vote only extinguishes if the voter has completed no further preferences. It is up to a voter to nominate a next preference. Parties can no longer determine the between party preferences of a ballot paper.

By numbering the above the line boxes to indicate preferences between parties. If a voter wants to re-arrange the order of candidates within party groups they have to vote below the line. But to accept the candidate ordering and simply control flows between parties, the voters just numbers boxes.

No, that way of controlling preferences was abolished for the Senate in 2016. All between party preferences are now controlled and determined by voters, not parties and candidates.

After the first five vacancies were filled Babet had the highest remaining vote. He stayed ahead through the count. All preferences were completed by voters, not parties and candidates.

Utterly wrong. That has NEVER been the case in House elections, preferences are determined by the voter. The same has applied for the Senate since 2016 when group voting tickets were abolished.

A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups. antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...

Commentary - Prahran/Werribee by-election Werribee by-election 2025 Commentary

I've updated my #prahran and #werribee commentary to look at how the outstanding postal votes might affect the result. In short they will confirm the Liberal victory in Prahran and favour Labor retaining its narrow lead in Werribee. #springst www.abc.net.au/news/electio...

Results - Werribee by-election 2025 Werribee by-election 2025 Results

#werribee - 0.6% of 2CP counted - ALP Predicted 2CP=44.6% -16.3% swing - results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst Preference count on that one small booth but there's the number.

Results - Werribee by-election 2025 Werribee by-election 2025 Results

#werribee 0.6% counted
PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %)
ALP 20.1 (-25.3)
LIB 39.8 (+14.5)
GRN 7.5 (+0.7)
IND 9.2 (+3.3)
OTH 23.5 (+6.8)
Full results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst

Newspoll has WA Labor on 56% 2-party preferred, a swing of 14% against Labor. To put that in context, it cancels out the 14% swing to Labor in 2021. Labor's two-party vote in 2017 was 55.5% when Labor recorded its biggest victory in WA history. That was until 2021. #wapol

The WA election race is underway today with the issue of writs. So far 253 candidates lower house candidates have been named. Find all the names plus election background and profiles of every seat at my WA Election guide. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #wavotes

it make a small difference, maybe a pct or two.

Werribee by-election 2025 Werribee by-election 2025

12 candidates for Werribee by-election. Bad ballot draw for Labor in position 11, Liberal candidate drew position 2. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...

Well they're following the first move form change in NSW in 2000. The Federal government followed in 2016, SA in 2018, WA in 2025 and Victoria is having an inquiry with the intent of abolishing the tickets. WA is following the NSW and SA model where only a single '1' is required above the line.