Potterlytics

PSR has underlined how badly run most of them are.

Possession is not nine-tenths: analysis into possession adjusting Defensive statistics in football are difficult to parse. Is adjusting for a team's possession share the answer? And can data for players ever fully be comparable?

This post is about 'possession adjusting' defensive stats, but really it's about

- exorcising past demons
- the extent to which making player statistics comparable to each other is a science vs a craft
- extended metaphors

get-goalside-newsletter-archive.beehiiv.com/p/possession...

And as the biggest reminder ever, probably not needed for Stoke fans, but even so:
Head coaches/managers are *highly* situational. The search for the ‘best’ manager at our level isn’t a thing, it doesn’t exist! It’s the *right* person for your process at that time that’s needed.

I'd say, don't look too much into where Coventry are this season as a measure of Robins as a manager.

I'm not saying it's perfect or even that it could work at Stoke, but simulating all Championship shots this season 100,000 times, Coventry are not a bottom half side.

On performances, you really can’t argue with that as a sacking.

Lessons In Stagnation: An Unhinged Data-Driven Rant About Stoke City Well, it just gets worse and worse, doesn’t it. For the second season in a row it feels like a fixture against Sheffield Wednesday, after a poor run of results that followed a pretty lucky/un…

“The entirety of Stoke City’s plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out.

‘What are ‘good’ clubs doing? Brighton are doing data scouting, let’s get one of them in, but only for a few months because we’ll have a different structure next summer.’”

potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...

But how many lessons is it possible to learn?
How many individuals do we give full control of our footballing direction before we find success? What even is success, as apparently midtable after 5 games isn’t it?
If we do find it,what happens when they leave? A dice roll again?"

2/2

From the piece I wrote on Schumacher's sacking:

"For my pessimistic side it feels inevitable that this ends as every other revolution has, first a sacked Head Coach & a new style of play, then a sacked Sporting Director and promises of a ‘new approach’ & ‘lessons learned’."

1/2

Just to update:

Since relegation, Stoke have had:

4 Managers
2 Head Coaches (soon 3)
12 Assistant Managers (soon to be 13)
1 'Technical Board'
1 Sporting Director
3 Technical Directors
1 Director of Football
1 Head of Football Operations
2 Chief Scouts
2 Heads of Recruitment

Domination from Leeds. Stoke's inability to cover passing lanes out of possession exposed by a quality side.

It lost me when I renewed last year, and the basic subscription suddenly stopped providing you with basic team rankings and stats, and only gave you 70 minutes of viewed footage and a report a month.
Absolutely mad.

Lessons In Stagnation: An Unhinged Data-Driven Rant About Stoke City Well, it just gets worse and worse, doesn’t it. For the second season in a row it feels like a fixture against Sheffield Wednesday, after a poor run of results that followed a pretty lucky/un…

"The entirety of Stoke City's plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out.
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."

potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...

Sorry, bit of a long one! It's been a while and there's lots to say 😅
Data-driven as much as it is frustration-driven, but any comments or questions always welcome, enjoy!

Lessons In Stagnation: An Unhinged Data-Driven Rant About Stoke City Well, it just gets worse and worse, doesn’t it. For the second season in a row it feels like a fixture against Sheffield Wednesday, after a poor run of results that followed a pretty lucky/un…

"The entirety of Stoke City's plan for the club hinges on a Fear of Missing Out.
There's no issue with learning from what successful clubs are doing, but it's never done with a depth of understanding of why those ideas are working at those clubs."

potterlytics.blog/2024/12/19/l...

Choupo-Moting is the latest in a surprising run of Stoke City's 2017-18 squad coming to MLS:

- Xherdan Shaqiri
- Ryan Shawcross
- Geoff Cameron
- Tom Edwards
- Bojan Krkić
- Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting

Stoke finished 19th that year. More awestruck by this trend than the mid-2010s Barcelona pipeline.

In fairness I'd be very surprised to see him go anywhere. I'm not sure he's got the feet to be in the PL just yet, and it'd take a huge huge bid for Stoke to let him go.

As far as I can find, no Championship goalkeeper since they started recording Post-shot xG - a measure of how difficult a shot is to save - has come close to how good Viktor Johansson has been for Stoke this season.

An average shot-stopper would have conceded *11* more goals this season than he has

As an first glance, I actually think we’re on a similar points total to what would be expected on the chances for/against, but nothing concrete yet on it.

There is! That's my next plan, may take a bit of time mind, but will hopefully be in the final piece later this week!

As a quick explainer, I essentially take each shot and simulate it 100,000 times, with the xG of the chance taken as the probability of it being scored.

There are big caveats on this, especially in the treatment of lots of shots in one sequence, but it's reasonable for this use case.

An upcoming piece this week. It won't be nice, but just as a quick preview:

I simulated every shot in the Championship 100,000 times:

In *99,700* of those simulations, Stoke conceded more goals than in real life.

A mixture of luck & Johansson, you can't rely on those forever.

Well, If you're wondering why Stoke fans are so concerned, and wondering why Narcís Pèlach had to come out and say he was changing some things in the defensive structure, erm...

This is why. That spike in xG against is gigantic, on already appalling underlying numbers.

Absolutely great to see Arsenal playing with a rest defence made up entirely of 6’+ centre halves, a couple of quick wingers and scoring through blocking in set pieces.

Pulis laughing.gif

Spotted that Tom Cannon has been nominated for Player of the Month.
His shots & passes for November below.

I'm not really sure I get this nomination from my end.

3 open play big chances, just the one open play goal. Not awful, but is it award-worthy?

Can't look past Borja Sainz for this, surely?

Now actual Sandi Toksvig please.

Delighted to announce two new features on my web app!
championshipdata.streamlit.app

Chalkboard: Show passes with arrows on a pitch. Fully customisable data as shown below!

Heatmap: Show the start/endpoints of passes as a coloured heatmap, compared with the league average or just with other zones

Update to championshipdata.streamlit.app! Check out the new chalkboard maps for passes, and the heat maps too!

Any comments and help appreciated, now to work on streamlining it all and getting that processing speed up.

Enjoy, everyone! Comments appreciated!

(I know it's slow, that's my next project :D)

championshipdata.streamlit.app

In the heatmaps, you can select a range of bin sizes when comparing within the plot (i.e. the number in each bin), but you are fixed to the set zones when comparing with the league average for each zone.

You can also select either start/end points, and whether you display each point on the plot!

In the chalkboards, you can select for the following:
Match/matches/all season
Minute/Half
OP/Set Piece
Outcome
Start/end Zone vertically & horizontally
Specific coordinate ranges
Events (cross/prog pass/assist/etc)
Player making and receiving pass
Direction
Distance

It's all there to choose from!