Gönül Tol

part of a broader push to use Turkey’s FSRUs for export — following Egypt’s lead earlier this year.

8️⃣ Inflation Surges Again

Turkey’s annual inflation rate soared to 33.29% in September, well above forecasts, raising pressure on the central bank to reconsider its monetary easing.

Turkish and Egyptian warships held major naval exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean — a key step in normalizing ties strained since Morsi’s ouster.

7️⃣ Energy Diplomacy with Morocco

Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Ankara is in talks with Morocco to lease a regasification vessel,++

5️⃣ Flotilla Activists Evacuated

Turkish authorities evacuated activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla, who were intercepted by Israel in international waters during their attempt to break the Gaza blockade and deliver aid.

6️⃣ Turkey–Egypt Naval Drill

After a 13-year hiatus,++

to the Golden Horn in support of Palestinians, where boats draped in Turkish and Palestinian flags awaited them.

4️⃣ Ankara Urges Hamas to Engage

Turkey called on Hamas to respond positively to President Trump’s proposal to end the war in Gaza.++

hindering production of Turkey’s indigenous fighter jet sparked pushback. The head of the Defense Industries Presidency countered, saying the engine program is on track and not dependent on any single country.

3️⃣ Mass Pro-Palestinian March in Istanbul

Thousands marched from Hagia Sophia ++

#TurkeyLastWeek

1️⃣ Parliament Opens, Opposition Boycotts

Turkey kicked off a new legislative year on Wednesday, but the CHP boycotted the session, which featured a speech by President Erdoğan.

2️⃣ Fighter Jet Engine Debate

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s claim that U.S. sanctions are ++

YouTube video by Middle East Institute Can Turkey and Israel Find Common Ground in Syria?

Sunday extras:

"Can Turkey and Israel Find Common Ground in Syria?" with Kenneth Pollack, @gonultol.bsky.social and @natansachs.bsky.social . [1/5]

A Bloomberg report from today confirmed this 👇

#TurkeyLastWeek

1.Ankara joins the list of opposition-run municipalities under judicial pressure: 13 detained in a corruption probe tied to city concerts.

2.CHP re-elected Özgür Çelik as Istanbul provincial head after a court briefly removed him over alleged irregularities++

7.Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan added to the fallout, noting that U.S. licenses for F-35 and KAAN fighter jet engines remain suspended — delaying KAAN production. His blunt remarks divided AKP ranks, with some saying he undercut Erdogan’s “successful” trip.

5.The opposition seized on Trump’s Oval Office quip that “Erdogan knows about rigged elections better than anyone.”

6.Trump pressed Erdogan to halt Russian oil imports — a tough ask for Turkey, the world’s No. 3 buyer after China and India.++

3.Erdogan’s long-sought White House meeting with Trump — his first since 2019 — stirred controversy in Washington and Ankara alike.

4.Erdogan’s Fox News remarks on Trump’s handling of Ukraine and Gaza sparked backlash; his office later claimed mistranslation, insisting they were meant as praise.++

#TurkeyLastWeek

1.Ankara joins the list of opposition-run municipalities under judicial pressure: 13 detained in a corruption probe tied to city concerts.

2.CHP re-elected Özgür Çelik as Istanbul provincial head after a court briefly removed him over alleged irregularities++

Great thread

As usual, great analysis by @gonultol.bsky.social.

My standard response to those asking “Is Turkey pivoting to the West” has always been: No. It’s called hedging. Or strategic autonomy. Read TR media.

Erdoğan consistently positions Turkey as a mediator. It conveniently means you don’t take sides

“Erdogan asked me for a favor about Halkbank,” the state lender facing steep US penalties for allegedly evading Iran sanctions.

“I want Turkey to stop buying Russian oil.”

“Erdogan knows about rigged elections better than anyone.”

Trump’s joint press conference with Erdogan today was filled with softball questions that surely pleased the Turkish side. Yet there were four remarks Ankara likely wished he hadn’t made on camera:

“Turkey had sentenced Pastor Brunson to 35 years in jail, I called Erdogan and he released him.”+++

Strategic autonomy may be the goal, but the path is still paved with dependencies. So when the WSJ asked if Ankara is pivoting West, I said Turkey’s real strategy is to engage all sides, plug gaps where it can, and make itself useful—or troublesome—elsewhere to build leverage.

Erdoğan’s top priority was securing access to critical Western components—like engines for Turkey’s fighter jet project.

Despite efforts to diversify, Turkey still relies heavily on countries like Russia for energy—a major vulnerability.++

Today’s Trump–Erdoğan meeting underscored how dependent Turkey remains on the West for its defense needs, and on the East for its energy needs.

Despite claims at home and abroad that Ankara’s expanding indigenous defense sector makes it ‘strategically autonomous,’++

Once hailed as a rare democracy in the Middle East, Lebanon has now slipped into the ranks of closed autocracies, according to a 2025 democracy index report. Decades of corruption, sectarian rule, and foreign meddling have left the country reeling — and the past year brought++

Can Lebanese Democracy Be Saved? Once hailed as a rare democracy in the Middle East, Lebanon has now slipped into the ranks of closed autocracies. Decades of corruption, sectarian rule, and foreign meddling have left the country reel...

For the latest episode of Rethinking Democracy podcast, I sat down with @rmslim and @AymanMhanna to discuss all these and more. Tune in here www.mei.edu/multimedia/p...

assassinations, mass displacement, and Israel’s full-scale war against Hezbollah. Lebanon stands at a crossroads: could shifts in regional power, efforts to disarm Hezbollah, and a change in leadership pave the way for recovery, or will instability deepen? ++

Once hailed as a rare democracy in the Middle East, Lebanon has now slipped into the ranks of closed autocracies, according to a 2025 democracy index report. Decades of corruption, sectarian rule, and foreign meddling have left the country reeling — and the past year brought++

Markets, Mayors, and Crackdowns: Erdoğan’s High-Stakes Gamble Turkey’s main opposition, the CHP, is facing its toughest test yet: mass arrests, sham court rulings, and the ouster of key leaders—including Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s chief rival. Wi...

"Markets, Mayors, and Crackdowns: Erdoğan’s High-Stakes Gamble" with @sedademiralp.bsky.social, @selvademiralp.com and @gonultol.bsky.social. [3/5]

Turkey’s democracy, Syria and the PKK peace process with Gönül Tol Recap radio #16

Great @turkeyrecap.bsky.social episode with @gonultol.bsky.social on Turkish democracy, Syria, PKK

www.turkeyrecap.com/p/turkeys-de...

YouTube video by Hediye Levent Amerika'nın Orta Doğu politikası ne? Orta Doğu Enstitüsü Türkiye Direktörü Gönül Tol ile konuşuyoruz

📌Amerika'nın Orta Doğu politikası ne?
📌Türkiye-İsrail geriliminde Amerika'nın tavrı ne olur?

Orta Doğu Enstitüsü Türkiye Direktörü Gönül Tol ile konuştuk.

Abone olmayı unutmayın!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACGn...

YouTube video by Hediye Levent Amerika'nın Orta Doğu politikası ne? Orta Doğu Enstitüsü Türkiye Direktörü Gönül Tol ile konuşuyoruz

📌Amerika'nın Orta Doğu politikası ne?
📌Trump Türkiye-İsrail gerilimi konusunda bir şey yapacak mı?

Orta Doğu Enstitüsü Türkiye Direktörü Gönül Tol @gonultol.bsky.social ile konuşuyoruz.

⏰20.30'da

Abone olmayı unutmayın!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACGn...

Markets, Mayors, and Crackdowns: Erdoğan’s High-Stakes Gamble Turkey’s main opposition, the CHP, is facing its toughest test yet: mass arrests, sham court rulings, and the ouster of key leaders—including Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s chief rival. Wi...

www.mei.edu/multimedia/p...

📌What does this crackdown mean for Turkey’s fragile economy, its 2028 elections, and the future of democracy itself?

👉We break it down in this episode of Rethinking Democracy with two great scholars: Selva Demiralp and Seda Demiralp. Tune into the episode here 👇