Phil Rocco

An Unpopular, Doomed, Bloody War People will die and nothing will be accomplished

From Paul Musgrave, who is in Qatar.

That Americans “do not know” whether war is being waged to stop an already dismantled nuclear program or to do regime change or […] is beside the point. Americans now overwhelmingly oppose war in Iran. So too did they oppose it in 2025 when the “nuclear program” rationale was the only game in town.

article 8bis of the rome statute of the international criminal court

continuation of article 8bis

posting, once again, the well-established definition of the crime of aggression in the rome statute for the ICC

And this is why the search for a method, a rationale, a plan must go on. Because registrars of opinion will try (as they always do) to furnish an administration these essentials if necessary. But it is not the same thing as an analysis of why Trump (or anyone) decides to kill.

That Americans “do not know” whether war is being waged to stop an already dismantled nuclear program or to do regime change or […] is beside the point. Americans now overwhelmingly oppose war in Iran. So too did they oppose it in 2025 when the “nuclear program” rationale was the only game in town.

Mr. Trump’s failure to articulate either goals or a strategy for a potential military intervention has created shocking levels of uncertainty about this attack. Americans do not know whether the president has ordered an attack in their name mostly to set back Iran’s nuclear program — or to go so far as toppling the government of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

It seems absurd to lock in, as growing number of commentators seem to be doing (NYT clip below), on Trump’s failure to articulate a casus belli in Iran. Asking “why?”, presuming a satisfactory explanation is out there, ignores the sense of unreality that perpetuates endless war in the first place.

Screenshot of website. Bets on Kalshi re: the Ayatollah being ousted jumped last night at 11:30.

Bets to oust the Ayatollah on Kalshi jumped last night at 11:30pm.

Trump claimed Iran is building missiles that could soon hit the US. Sources say that’s not backed up by US intelligence. | CNN Politics When US President Donald Trump addressed the American people on Tuesday night, he claimed that Iran is “working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America.”

When Trump addressed the American people on Tuesday night, he claimed that Iran is “working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America.”

That assertion is not backed up by US intelligence, sources told CNN. www.cnn.com/2026/02/27/p...

Mere hours after going to war, Trump has expanded the big lie to fit Iran into his 2020/24 election conspiracies.

Deeply conflicted, Kushner represents the U.S. in high-stakes negotiations with Iran Today in Geneva, Switzerland, Jared Kushner will represent the United States in meetings with Iranian officials — a last-ditch effort to avoid war.

Just a reminder: instead of an actual diplomat, we sent Trump’s deeply compromised son-in-law as the lead negotiator to avert war with Iran.

popular.info/p/deeply-con...

“Devil in the details” is his point. Action would have to be swift and there’s a lot to assemble to make it happen.

States can block the Paramount-Warner deal But thanks to some clever maneuvering, they are already running out of time. What started as a bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery became an unconditional surrender Thursday. Netflix had a deal in place for a couple of months, but Paramount, under the direction of MAGA heir David Ellison, made a hostile takeover bid, and this week upped its offer from $30 to $31 a share for all of WBD, including its cable channels. The total purchase comes to $111 billion, and on Thursday the WBD board pronounced the offer superior to Netflix’s, giving the streamer four days to match it. Netflix, whose CEO was at the White House on Thursday (what was he told?), barely needed an hour, dropping its effort.

It’s not unprecedented for states to challenge a merger without the federal government—Washington state blocked the Kroger-Albertsons merger in 2024 in a separate trial from the FTC, and states (unsuccessfully) challenged the Sprint merger with T-Mobile when the first Trump administration wouldn’t go after it. But they need to have documents or witness testimony, and they need to put it all together, with limited windows into Paramount and Warner Bros.’ business, within about a month.

Good analysis by @ddayen.bsky.social here: states can block the Paramount-Warner deal. But they’ll want to act quickly.

So much of the discussion of the temporary Rural Health Transformation Fund ignores/downplays that any new rural initiatives will happen at the same time as far larger, permanent #Medicaid cuts that will seriously damage rural health. The headlines and reporting here provides that critical context.

(3) The surge in federal ICE capacity is, in part, a response to the leverage state/local governments evidently have. This suggests both the need to scan quite broadly for choke points and to find ways of constructing them where they do not already exist.

(2) What I love about @splawinski.bsky.social's analysis is that it shows that what matters here is not just decisions of gov't, but the public pressure that can increase reputational risks of engaging in, say, 287(g) agreements. "Access to choke points" can be shaped by local political pressure.

Mapping chokepoints in the federal system (and there are many more than we know) is really useful right now. 3 thoughts: (1) Choke points are harder to use when state/local governments are revenue-starved. Harder still when feds arbitrarily cut aid in discretionary programs (~$14b in 2025 alone).

A Federalism Bottleneck? The Subnational Levers Constraining ICE

New from @splawinski.bsky.social at Can We Still Govern: To stymie ICE, look at the sources of its power.

That includes money but also co-operative 287(g) agreements with state and local govts.

Blocking and reversing those agreements weakens ICE capacity. 🧵
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/a-federali...

Kansas Sends Letters To Trans People Demanding The Immediate Surrender Of Drivers Licenses "The legislature did not include a grace period." ERIN REED FEB 25, 2026 88 5 21 Share Kansas Sate Capitol // farzinvousoughian

1. Numerous transgender people in Kansas are reporting that the state has sent them a letter demanding the immediate surrender of drivers licenses.

Those driving could be arrested, charged, and see privileges revoked.

Subscribe to support our journalism.

www.erininthemorning.com/p/kansas-sen...

The reference point here is Mississippi’s numerous Medicaid and TANF scandals, none of which ever resulted in this kind of punishment of an entire state in this manner.

The name for this is collective punishment.

New research with @aaronsojourner.org of the @upjohninstitute.bsky.social posted on @northstarpolicy.org's blog. We find that Operation Metro Surge caused declines in employees working, hours worked, and businesses open, leading to an estimated $106 million wage loss for Twin Cities workers.

The accounting rules governing public (non-federal) finance - specifically when public employee pensions have to be "pre-funded" - are really up there in terms of relevance to policy and political debate, while being very little known. @jwmason.bsky.social explains: jwmason.org/slackwire/th...

do i understand correctly that a couple days ago the president in some kind of fugue state hallucinated the idea that he was sending a hospital ship to greenland to treat an outbreak of some invented plague, and the governor of some state was like yes sir i am proud to be on this voyage with you

Horserace, economy, hope (lol)? Just strange.

Could have been 2017, or 2003.

Watching a PBS Newshour panel on SOTU lead-up and astonishingly no discussion of Trump’s attacks on institutions, immigration mentioned in barely a clause. Breathtakingly weird.

Not great especially in states with vote by mail. 🗳️📬

‘Just a couple of guys’: How a little-known company could score big from a Trump trade deal President Donald Trump's levies on automobiles and auto parts were unaffected by the Supreme Court's Friday tariff decision, likely meaning Japan will stick to its pact with the U.S.

1/Trade deals not about national interest but those of insider Trump clique -- Japan edition. With 500 billion possibly on the line, first investment goes to unknown company with ties to Trump children for...nuclear energy. Welcome to neo-royalism.
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...

Yes, pre 1776 norms

Former ICE instructor will testify as whistleblower that agents taught to violate Fourth Amendment The instructor, who is an attorney, plans to tell a forum sponsored by Congressional Democrats that the procedures in entering homes are not taught appropriately.

A former ICE instructor is expected to testify that new agents are trained to run roughshod over constitutional rights, including the right against a home invasion, and that the federal agency is “broken."